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FOREX Tech Targets

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EUR/USD: Bearish (13 Aug 18, 1.1400): Bearish phase appears to be close to ending.

Instead of consolidating and trading sideways, as expected last Friday (17 Aug, spot at 1.1375), EUR extended its rebound and hit a high of 1.1445. The ‘stop-loss’ for our bullish view at 1.1460 appears to be vulnerable and a break of this level would indicate that the bearish phase that started early last week has ended. The swift and sharp recovery from last Wednesday (15 Aug) 1.1297 low came as a surprise and suggests EUR could move into a consolidation phase sooner than expected (we are not anticipating a bullish reversal for now). Overall, unless EUR can move and stay below 1.1370 within these couple of days, a break of the ‘stop-loss’ seems likely.GBP/USD: Bearish (since 09 Aug, spot at 1.2885): Still bearish but risk of an interim low has increased.

We have warned of the increasing risk of an interim low since last Thursday (16 Aug, spot at 1.2700) and continue to hold the same view. However, only a break of 1.2780 would indicate that GBP has found a low at 1.2662 last week. In order for GBP to revive the current flagging momentum, GBP has to break and hold below 1.2690 within these couple of days or a break of the ‘stop-loss’ at 1.2780 would not surprise at all. That said, a break of 1.2780 would only indicate an end to the current bearish phase and not the start of a major bullish reversal. 

AUD/USD: Bearish (since 13 Aug 18, spot at 0.7285): Diminished odds for further AUD weakness.

We highlighted last Thursday (16 Aug, spot at 0.7235) “the immediate target was exceeded” and oversold short-term indicators could lead to a “few days of consolidation first”. The subsequent strong rebound in AUD that hit a high of 0.7319 during late NY hours on Friday came as a surprise. A break of the 0.7330 ‘stop-loss’ for our bearish view would indicate that AUD has made a short-term low at 0.7203 last week. This scenario appears likely unless can AUD can move and stay below 0.7255 within these couple of days.

NZD/USD: Shift from bearish to neutral: NZD has moved into a consolidation phase.

We have warned since last Thursday (16 Aug, spot at 0.6560) that the “combination of oversold conditions and lackluster momentum” suggests that the “odds for further weakness below 0.6540 are not high”. The ‘stop-loss’ for our bearish view at 0.6630 was subsequently breached late last Friday when NZD moved to a high of 0.6636. The outlook for NZD is deemed as neutral now and the current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase. In other words, NZD is expected to trade sideways from here, likely within a 0.6560/0.6690 range.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 23 Jul 18, 111.20): Outlook unclear, USD likely trading in a broad range.

USD continues to trade in a choppy manner and we continue to hold a neutral view for now. As highlighted in recent updates, the outlook is unclear and USD is likely trading within a broad 109.85/111.50 range for now.

Source:efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Bearish (13 Aug 18, 1.1400): Bearish phase appears to be close to ending.

Instead of consolidating and trading sideways, as expected last Friday (17 Aug, spot at 1.1375), EUR extended its rebound and hit a high of 1.1445. The ‘stop-loss’ for our bullish view at 1.1460 appears to be vulnerable and a break of this level would indicate that the bearish phase that started early last week has ended. The swift and sharp recovery from last Wednesday (15 Aug) 1.1297 low came as a surprise and suggests EUR could move into a consolidation phase sooner than expected (we are not anticipating a bullish reversal for now). Overall, unless EUR can move and stay below 1.1370 within these couple of days, a break of the ‘stop-loss’ seems likely.GBP/USD: Bearish (since 09 Aug, spot at 1.2885): Still bearish but risk of an interim low has increased.

We have warned of the increasing risk of an interim low since last Thursday (16 Aug, spot at 1.2700) and continue to hold the same view. However, only a break of 1.2780 would indicate that GBP has found a low at 1.2662 last week. In order for GBP to revive the current flagging momentum, GBP has to break and hold below 1.2690 within these couple of days or a break of the ‘stop-loss’ at 1.2780 would not surprise at all. That said, a break of 1.2780 would only indicate an end to the current bearish phase and not the start of a major bullish reversal. 

AUD/USD: Bearish (since 13 Aug 18, spot at 0.7285): Diminished odds for further AUD weakness.

We highlighted last Thursday (16 Aug, spot at 0.7235) “the immediate target was exceeded” and oversold short-term indicators could lead to a “few days of consolidation first”. The subsequent strong rebound in AUD that hit a high of 0.7319 during late NY hours on Friday came as a surprise. A break of the 0.7330 ‘stop-loss’ for our bearish view would indicate that AUD has made a short-term low at 0.7203 last week. This scenario appears likely unless can AUD can move and stay below 0.7255 within these couple of days.

NZD/USD: Shift from bearish to neutral: NZD has moved into a consolidation phase.

We have warned since last Thursday (16 Aug, spot at 0.6560) that the “combination of oversold conditions and lackluster momentum” suggests that the “odds for further weakness below 0.6540 are not high”. The ‘stop-loss’ for our bearish view at 0.6630 was subsequently breached late last Friday when NZD moved to a high of 0.6636. The outlook for NZD is deemed as neutral now and the current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase. In other words, NZD is expected to trade sideways from here, likely within a 0.6560/0.6690 range.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 23 Jul 18, 111.20): Outlook unclear, USD likely trading in a broad range.

USD continues to trade in a choppy manner and we continue to hold a neutral view for now. As highlighted in recent updates, the outlook is unclear and USD is likely trading within a broad 109.85/111.50 range for now.

Source:efxdata.com

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