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FOREX Tech Targets

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EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): EUR is expected to move lower and test the strong 1.2200 support.

While we highlighted yesterday that we “continue to see chance for EUR to move lower and test the strong support at 1.2200”, the pace of the sharp decline yesterday that managed to edge below the 1.2240 support came as a surprise (overnight low of 1.2237). The strong down-move reinforces our view and we continue to expect a move towards 1.2200. At this stage, the prospect for a sustained move below 1.2200 is not that high and even if there is a break of this level, further strong support can be expected at the month-to-date low near 1.2155. That said, we continue to expect EUR to stay under pressure unless it can move back above 1.2385 (key resistance level unchanged). On a shorter-term note, 1.2355 is already a rather strong level.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Scope for further extension to 1.4145 but a sustained break seems unlikely. No change in view.The abrupt and sharp rally in GBP yesterday was clearly unexpected. News of a deal on Brexit sent GBP soaring to a one-month high of 1.4088. Upward pressure has picked up considerably and the risk remains on the upside. However, despite the strong up-move, we are not convinced that the current price action is the start of a bullish phase. That said, the rally has scope to extend further towards the midFebruary high of 1.4145 but a sustained break above this level seems unlikely. Overall, GBP is expected to stay supported as long as the key support at 1.3930 is intact.

AUD/USD: Shift from neutral to BEARISH: Immediate target of 0.7630

 The condition of a “NY close below 0.7700” indicated yesterday (20 Mar, spot at 0.7710) is met and the outlook for AUD has shifted to bearish. The target is set at 0.7630 followed by 0.7600. However, after the rapid and outsized decline last week, any further down-move is expected to be at a slower pace. Looking further ahead, the two-year rising trend-line at 0.7600 is a major mid to long-term support and this level is unlikely to yield so easily. Only a move back above 0.7770 would indicate that our bearish view is wrong.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280). Still neutral but room for further weakness towards 0.7130.

We have held the same view since last Friday (16 Mar, spot at 0.7275) that “there is scope for NZD to probe the major 0.7175/85 support zone”. NZD finally moved to this support zone as it dropped to a low of 0.7170 early this morning. While we have previously noted that a clear break of this support zone would indicate that NZD has moved into a bearish phase, we are less convinced now even though there is room for further weakness towards 0.7130. 0.7130 is a rather strong support and after the recent swift sell-off, oversold indicators suggest that this level may not be easy to crack. All that said, NZD is expected to continue to stay under pressure until there is a move back above 0.7260. On a shorter-term note, 0.7220 is already a strong resistance level. 

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): A retest of 105.25 seems likely.

In the update on Monday (19 Mar, spot at 105.90), we were of the view that despite the lack of downward momentum, the weakened undertone suggests that a retest of the month-to-date low near 105.25 seems likely. The relatively strong recovery yesterday was not exactly expected and the odds for a move towards 105.25 have diminished. However, only a move back above 106.80 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased. That said, a break of 106.80 is not going to change the current neutral outlook but would suggest that USD has moved into sideway consolidation range.

Source:efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): EUR is expected to move lower and test the strong 1.2200 support.

While we highlighted yesterday that we “continue to see chance for EUR to move lower and test the strong support at 1.2200”, the pace of the sharp decline yesterday that managed to edge below the 1.2240 support came as a surprise (overnight low of 1.2237). The strong down-move reinforces our view and we continue to expect a move towards 1.2200. At this stage, the prospect for a sustained move below 1.2200 is not that high and even if there is a break of this level, further strong support can be expected at the month-to-date low near 1.2155. That said, we continue to expect EUR to stay under pressure unless it can move back above 1.2385 (key resistance level unchanged). On a shorter-term note, 1.2355 is already a rather strong level.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Scope for further extension to 1.4145 but a sustained break seems unlikely. No change in view.The abrupt and sharp rally in GBP yesterday was clearly unexpected. News of a deal on Brexit sent GBP soaring to a one-month high of 1.4088. Upward pressure has picked up considerably and the risk remains on the upside. However, despite the strong up-move, we are not convinced that the current price action is the start of a bullish phase. That said, the rally has scope to extend further towards the midFebruary high of 1.4145 but a sustained break above this level seems unlikely. Overall, GBP is expected to stay supported as long as the key support at 1.3930 is intact.

AUD/USD: Shift from neutral to BEARISH: Immediate target of 0.7630

 The condition of a “NY close below 0.7700” indicated yesterday (20 Mar, spot at 0.7710) is met and the outlook for AUD has shifted to bearish. The target is set at 0.7630 followed by 0.7600. However, after the rapid and outsized decline last week, any further down-move is expected to be at a slower pace. Looking further ahead, the two-year rising trend-line at 0.7600 is a major mid to long-term support and this level is unlikely to yield so easily. Only a move back above 0.7770 would indicate that our bearish view is wrong.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280). Still neutral but room for further weakness towards 0.7130.

We have held the same view since last Friday (16 Mar, spot at 0.7275) that “there is scope for NZD to probe the major 0.7175/85 support zone”. NZD finally moved to this support zone as it dropped to a low of 0.7170 early this morning. While we have previously noted that a clear break of this support zone would indicate that NZD has moved into a bearish phase, we are less convinced now even though there is room for further weakness towards 0.7130. 0.7130 is a rather strong support and after the recent swift sell-off, oversold indicators suggest that this level may not be easy to crack. All that said, NZD is expected to continue to stay under pressure until there is a move back above 0.7260. On a shorter-term note, 0.7220 is already a strong resistance level. 

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): A retest of 105.25 seems likely.

In the update on Monday (19 Mar, spot at 105.90), we were of the view that despite the lack of downward momentum, the weakened undertone suggests that a retest of the month-to-date low near 105.25 seems likely. The relatively strong recovery yesterday was not exactly expected and the odds for a move towards 105.25 have diminished. However, only a move back above 106.80 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased. That said, a break of 106.80 is not going to change the current neutral outlook but would suggest that USD has moved into sideway consolidation range.

Source:efxdata.com

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