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FOREX Tech Targets

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EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Jun 18, 1.1700): Dip below 1.1505 not ruled out but weakness unlikely to be sustained.

As highlighted yesterday, despite the recent weakness, we are not convinced that EUR has reentered a bearish phase. However, a dip below the year-to-date low of 1.1505 is not ruled out but at this stage, we do not expect any weakness to be sustained (1.1450 is the next strong support). All in, EUR is likely to stay under pressure until it can reclaim the ‘key resistance’ at 1.1680 (level previously at 1.1710).

GBP/USD: Bearish (since 20 Jun 18, 1.3175): Major 1.3040 level is likely out of reach. No change in view.GBP plummeted below the previous year-to-date low of 1.3205 yesterday and hit 1.3151. The break of the key 1.3205 level suggests that GBP has reentered a bearish phase. However, after the sharp decline last month, indicators have to fully unwound and any weakness from here is likely to be grinding and last November’s low of 1.3040 is likely out of reach this time round (1.3100 is already a strong support). That said, the outlook for GBP is deemed as bearish until the ‘stop-loss’ at 1.3290 is taken out.

AUD/USD: Bearish (since 20 Jun 18, 0.7385): Decline reaching oversold, weakness likely limited to 0.7330, 0.7300.

As highlighted yesterday, while the outlook for AUD is bearish, the decline that started last week is already approaching oversold levels. However, further weakness is not ruled but at this stage, we are seeing strong support at 0.7330 followed by 0.7300. In view of the oversold conditions, any weakness is expected to be slow and grinding and the two levels mentioned earlier are expected to offer solid support. In other words, we do not expect AUD to ‘accelerate’ lower. On the upside, only a break of the ‘stop-loss’ at 0.7455 (level previously at 0.7490) would indicate that a short-term low is in place.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 22 May 18, 0.6945): Shift to bearish if NY close is below 0.6850.

The continuing sharp decline in NZD yesterday came as a surprise (NZD closed lower for the fifth straight day, down by -0.55%). Downward momentum has improved considerably and the odds for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 0.6850 have increased. In other words, a clear break of 0.6850 (say a NY close below this level) would indicate that NZD has entered a bearish phase (targeting a move to the 2017 low of 0.6780). This scenario appears likely unless NZD can reclaim the ‘key resistance’ at 0.6945 (level previously at 0.6990).

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): USD has likely moved into a broad consolidation phase. No change in view.In a last update on 14 Jun (spot at 110.25), we held the view that USD has room to move higher and ‘test’ the 111.00 resistance. USD subsequently touched a high of 110.90 but has since eased off. From here, there is no change to the neutral outlook and USD has likely moved into a broad consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways to lower, likely between 109.10 and 110.65.

Source:efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Jun 18, 1.1700): Dip below 1.1505 not ruled out but weakness unlikely to be sustained.

As highlighted yesterday, despite the recent weakness, we are not convinced that EUR has reentered a bearish phase. However, a dip below the year-to-date low of 1.1505 is not ruled out but at this stage, we do not expect any weakness to be sustained (1.1450 is the next strong support). All in, EUR is likely to stay under pressure until it can reclaim the ‘key resistance’ at 1.1680 (level previously at 1.1710).

GBP/USD: Bearish (since 20 Jun 18, 1.3175): Major 1.3040 level is likely out of reach. No change in view.GBP plummeted below the previous year-to-date low of 1.3205 yesterday and hit 1.3151. The break of the key 1.3205 level suggests that GBP has reentered a bearish phase. However, after the sharp decline last month, indicators have to fully unwound and any weakness from here is likely to be grinding and last November’s low of 1.3040 is likely out of reach this time round (1.3100 is already a strong support). That said, the outlook for GBP is deemed as bearish until the ‘stop-loss’ at 1.3290 is taken out.

AUD/USD: Bearish (since 20 Jun 18, 0.7385): Decline reaching oversold, weakness likely limited to 0.7330, 0.7300.

As highlighted yesterday, while the outlook for AUD is bearish, the decline that started last week is already approaching oversold levels. However, further weakness is not ruled but at this stage, we are seeing strong support at 0.7330 followed by 0.7300. In view of the oversold conditions, any weakness is expected to be slow and grinding and the two levels mentioned earlier are expected to offer solid support. In other words, we do not expect AUD to ‘accelerate’ lower. On the upside, only a break of the ‘stop-loss’ at 0.7455 (level previously at 0.7490) would indicate that a short-term low is in place.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 22 May 18, 0.6945): Shift to bearish if NY close is below 0.6850.

The continuing sharp decline in NZD yesterday came as a surprise (NZD closed lower for the fifth straight day, down by -0.55%). Downward momentum has improved considerably and the odds for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 0.6850 have increased. In other words, a clear break of 0.6850 (say a NY close below this level) would indicate that NZD has entered a bearish phase (targeting a move to the 2017 low of 0.6780). This scenario appears likely unless NZD can reclaim the ‘key resistance’ at 0.6945 (level previously at 0.6990).

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): USD has likely moved into a broad consolidation phase. No change in view.In a last update on 14 Jun (spot at 110.25), we held the view that USD has room to move higher and ‘test’ the 111.00 resistance. USD subsequently touched a high of 110.90 but has since eased off. From here, there is no change to the neutral outlook and USD has likely moved into a broad consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways to lower, likely between 109.10 and 110.65.

Source:efxdata.com

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