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FOREX Tech Targets

FOREX_Bulls&bears_daily-tech-targets_23-03-2018_FXPIG

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Prospect for a test of the strong 1.2200 support has diminished.

EUR edged briefly above the key 1.2385 resistance yesterday but eased off quickly after touching a high of 1.2383. Despite the breach of the strong resistance, we continue to see chance for a test of the strong 1.2200 support in the coming days. That said, the prospect for such a move has diminished considerably and would continue to decrease unless EUR can move and stay below 1.2270 within these 1 to 2 days. A clear break above 1.2380/85 would indicate that EUR has moved into a consolidation phase, albeit likely at a slightly higher range (we do not expect EUR to move into a bullish phase for now)

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Further GBP strength cannot be ruled out.

We indicated yesterday that further GBP strength cannot be ruled but noted that it would be “surprising if GBP can move above the February’s peak near 1.4280 (1.4230 is already quite a strong resistance)”. GBP popped briefly to a high of 1.4220 before dropping sharply to end the day on a soft note. The price action reinforces our view even though as mentioned yesterday, GBP is expected to continue to stay underpinned as long as the key support at 1.4000 is intact. In the meanwhile, shorter-term indicators are unwinding from oversold conditions and GBP is expected to trade sideways at these higher levels for the next few days.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 22 Mar 18, 0.7770): AUD has moved into a consolidation phase.

We just shifted from a bearish to neutral stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. Despite the rapid pull-back from a high of 0.7793, we do not think AUD is ready to re-enter a bearish phase. That said, the immediate bias is tilted to the downside and we are lowering the expected consolidation range to 0.7650/0.7820 (from 0.7680/0.7860 previously).

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Still neutral but NZD is expected to trade sideways for now.

NZD edged above the key 0.7260 resistance (high of 0.7263) and as mentioned yesterday, a breach of this level would indicate that the 0.7154 low seen earlier this week is a short-term bottom. In other words, the recent mild downward pressure has eased. However, the more than one-month long neutral phase is still intact but NZD is more likely to trade sideways for now, likely between 0.7160 and 0.7300.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Negative outlook could lead to a probe lower towards 104.00.

We have been holding the same view since Monday (19 Mar, spot at 105.90) that “a retest of 105.25 seems likely”. USD touched a low of 105.23 in NY yesterday but fear of a trade war sent it plummeting to a low 104.66 early this morning. The rapid drop appears to be running ahead of itself and we are not convinced that the current month-long neutral phase has shifted to bearish. That said, the immediate outlook is clearly ‘negative’ and it is premature to expect a sustained recovery. Only a move back above 105.70 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. Until then, USD could continue to probe lower towards the next support at 104.00 but the prospect for a sustained move below this level is not high at this stage.

Source:efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Prospect for a test of the strong 1.2200 support has diminished.

EUR edged briefly above the key 1.2385 resistance yesterday but eased off quickly after touching a high of 1.2383. Despite the breach of the strong resistance, we continue to see chance for a test of the strong 1.2200 support in the coming days. That said, the prospect for such a move has diminished considerably and would continue to decrease unless EUR can move and stay below 1.2270 within these 1 to 2 days. A clear break above 1.2380/85 would indicate that EUR has moved into a consolidation phase, albeit likely at a slightly higher range (we do not expect EUR to move into a bullish phase for now)

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Further GBP strength cannot be ruled out.

We indicated yesterday that further GBP strength cannot be ruled but noted that it would be “surprising if GBP can move above the February’s peak near 1.4280 (1.4230 is already quite a strong resistance)”. GBP popped briefly to a high of 1.4220 before dropping sharply to end the day on a soft note. The price action reinforces our view even though as mentioned yesterday, GBP is expected to continue to stay underpinned as long as the key support at 1.4000 is intact. In the meanwhile, shorter-term indicators are unwinding from oversold conditions and GBP is expected to trade sideways at these higher levels for the next few days.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 22 Mar 18, 0.7770): AUD has moved into a consolidation phase.

We just shifted from a bearish to neutral stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. Despite the rapid pull-back from a high of 0.7793, we do not think AUD is ready to re-enter a bearish phase. That said, the immediate bias is tilted to the downside and we are lowering the expected consolidation range to 0.7650/0.7820 (from 0.7680/0.7860 previously).

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Still neutral but NZD is expected to trade sideways for now.

NZD edged above the key 0.7260 resistance (high of 0.7263) and as mentioned yesterday, a breach of this level would indicate that the 0.7154 low seen earlier this week is a short-term bottom. In other words, the recent mild downward pressure has eased. However, the more than one-month long neutral phase is still intact but NZD is more likely to trade sideways for now, likely between 0.7160 and 0.7300.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Negative outlook could lead to a probe lower towards 104.00.

We have been holding the same view since Monday (19 Mar, spot at 105.90) that “a retest of 105.25 seems likely”. USD touched a low of 105.23 in NY yesterday but fear of a trade war sent it plummeting to a low 104.66 early this morning. The rapid drop appears to be running ahead of itself and we are not convinced that the current month-long neutral phase has shifted to bearish. That said, the immediate outlook is clearly ‘negative’ and it is premature to expect a sustained recovery. Only a move back above 105.70 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. Until then, USD could continue to probe lower towards the next support at 104.00 but the prospect for a sustained move below this level is not high at this stage.

Source:efxdata.com

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