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FOREX Tech Targets

FOREX_Daily-tech-targets-05-04-2018_FXPIG

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Focus is at 1.2153 now. No change in view.We highlighted yesterday (23 Apr, 1.2280) that the “pressure has shifted to the downside” and expected “further weakness to 1.2212”. However, we did not exactly expect 1.2212 to be taken out within such a short period of time (overnight low of 1.2196). From here, the focus has shifted to last month’s 1.2153 low and based on the vastly improved downward momentum, the odds for a break of this level have increased considerably. A clear break of this level would suggest that EUR is ready for much deeper down-move in the weeks ahead. In the meanwhile, only a break back above 1.2300 (‘key resistance’ was at 1.2355 yesterday) would indicate that a short-term low is in place.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Further weakness still seems likely. No change in view.We highlighted yesterday that a clear break of 1.3965 “would shift the focus to 1.3900”. However, the continuing decline in GBP that quickly took out this support level was not exactly expected (low of 1.3928). The price action for the past several days (GBP closed lower for the fifth consecutive day yesterday) suggests that further weakness still seems likely. From here, a break below 1.3900 would open up the way for a move to 1.3800. At this stage, the odds for a move to last month’s 1.3712 low are not high. On the upside, the ‘key resistance’ is at 1.4040 now (from 1.4130 yesterday) and only a break of this level would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 22 Mar 18, 0.7770): Expect further weakness to 0.7550.

There is not much to add as AUD extended its decline yesterday and hit a fresh year-to-date low of 0.7577. As noted in recent updates, while the decline for the past few days appears to be running too fast, there is no sign of stabilization just yet and we have to contend with further weakness to 0.7550. At this stage, the odds for a sustained move below this level are not that high (the next support is at last December’s low of 0.7500). On the upside, only a move back above the ‘key resistance’ at 0.7690 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Next support at 0.7070 could temporarily check the drop in NZD.

We highlighted yesterday (24 Apr, 0.7155) that “further weakness towards 0.7100 seems likely” but the continuing rapid pace of decline that quickly hit a low 0.7106 came as a surprise (note that NZD dropped by a whopping -2.8% in the past 4 days). In view of the strong downward momentum, a break of 0.7100 would not surprise at all but the swift and sharp drop that started last week appears to be running ahead of itself and it is unlikely NZD can maintain the current torrid pace of decline. The next support at 0.7070 could temporarily check the drop in NZD (next support is at 0.7035). That said, only a move back above the ‘key resistance’ at 0.7190 (level was at 0.7220 yesterday) would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Room for further extension to 109.30.

We highlighted yesterday that there is “room for further extension to 109.30” and USD subsequent hit a high of 109.19. Despite the pullback from the high, the current undertone remains solid and we continue to expect USD to stay supported for now. A break of 109.30 would indicate that USD is ready for a move to 110.00. Only a break of 108.15 (‘key support’ previously at 107.80) would indicate that a top is in place.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Focus is at 1.2153 now. No change in view.We highlighted yesterday (23 Apr, 1.2280) that the “pressure has shifted to the downside” and expected “further weakness to 1.2212”. However, we did not exactly expect 1.2212 to be taken out within such a short period of time (overnight low of 1.2196). From here, the focus has shifted to last month’s 1.2153 low and based on the vastly improved downward momentum, the odds for a break of this level have increased considerably. A clear break of this level would suggest that EUR is ready for much deeper down-move in the weeks ahead. In the meanwhile, only a break back above 1.2300 (‘key resistance’ was at 1.2355 yesterday) would indicate that a short-term low is in place.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Further weakness still seems likely. No change in view.We highlighted yesterday that a clear break of 1.3965 “would shift the focus to 1.3900”. However, the continuing decline in GBP that quickly took out this support level was not exactly expected (low of 1.3928). The price action for the past several days (GBP closed lower for the fifth consecutive day yesterday) suggests that further weakness still seems likely. From here, a break below 1.3900 would open up the way for a move to 1.3800. At this stage, the odds for a move to last month’s 1.3712 low are not high. On the upside, the ‘key resistance’ is at 1.4040 now (from 1.4130 yesterday) and only a break of this level would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 22 Mar 18, 0.7770): Expect further weakness to 0.7550.

There is not much to add as AUD extended its decline yesterday and hit a fresh year-to-date low of 0.7577. As noted in recent updates, while the decline for the past few days appears to be running too fast, there is no sign of stabilization just yet and we have to contend with further weakness to 0.7550. At this stage, the odds for a sustained move below this level are not that high (the next support is at last December’s low of 0.7500). On the upside, only a move back above the ‘key resistance’ at 0.7690 would indicate that the immediate downward pressure has eased.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): Next support at 0.7070 could temporarily check the drop in NZD.

We highlighted yesterday (24 Apr, 0.7155) that “further weakness towards 0.7100 seems likely” but the continuing rapid pace of decline that quickly hit a low 0.7106 came as a surprise (note that NZD dropped by a whopping -2.8% in the past 4 days). In view of the strong downward momentum, a break of 0.7100 would not surprise at all but the swift and sharp drop that started last week appears to be running ahead of itself and it is unlikely NZD can maintain the current torrid pace of decline. The next support at 0.7070 could temporarily check the drop in NZD (next support is at 0.7035). That said, only a move back above the ‘key resistance’ at 0.7190 (level was at 0.7220 yesterday) would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): Room for further extension to 109.30.

We highlighted yesterday that there is “room for further extension to 109.30” and USD subsequent hit a high of 109.19. Despite the pullback from the high, the current undertone remains solid and we continue to expect USD to stay supported for now. A break of 109.30 would indicate that USD is ready for a move to 110.00. Only a break of 108.15 (‘key support’ previously at 107.80) would indicate that a top is in place.

Source: efxdata.com

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