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FOREX Tech Targets

EUR/USD: Shift from bullish to NEUTRAL: In a broad 1.1320/1.1520 range.

While EUR broke above the strong weekly trend-line resistance at 1.1445 on Tuesday, the failure to hold on to its gains coupled with the sharp drop indicates that the shift to a bullish stance yesterday was wrong. We are neutral now and the recent price action looks like the early stages of a ‘rising wedge’ formation but the key support is much further down at 1.1320. In the meanwhile, EUR is expected to continue to trade choppily, likely within a broad 1.1320/1.1520 range.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 05 Jul 17, 1.2925): In a 1.2800/1.2975 range.

In line with expectation, GBP ‘probed’ lower but the major 1.2800 support was unthreatened (low of 1.2812). The subsequent sharp bounce from the low reinforces our current neutral view for GBP and we continue to expect this pair to trade sideways within a 1.2800/1.2975 range. 

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Jul 17, 0.7610): Immediate upward pressure toward 0.7710/15.

We indicated yesterday that AUD is expected to “grind higher towards 0.7685”. The pace of the up-move is more rapid than expected and upward momentum has improved further but we are still not convinced that this pair has re-entered a bullish phase. That said, the immediate pressure is clearly on the upside and from here, extension towards the June’s peak near 0.7710/15 would not be surprising. At this stage, a sustained move above this level seems unlikely. Overall, this pair is expected to stay underpinned in the coming days as long as the key support at 0.7630 is intact. 

NZD/USD: Shift from bearish to NEUTRAL: In a 0.7200/0.7330 range.

The shift to a bearish stance yesterday was wrong as NZD staged a swift and strong rebound from the 0.7202 low seen on Tuesday and took out the stop-loss for our bearish view at 0.7280 (high of 0.7281). The sharp drop and the subsequent strong swing higher have resulted in an unclear outlook. We are neutral now and expect this pair to continue to trade choppily in a broad 0.7200/0.7330 range. 

USD/JPY: Shift from bullish to NEUTRAL:  In a 112.00/114.20 range. 

While we warned of the increased risk of an interim top yesterday, the pace and extent of the USD decline was unexpected (the 0.69% decline is the largest single-day drop in more than a month). The bullish phase that started on 20 Jun (spot at 111.65) has ended with the break of 113.40 (low has been 112.90). USD has likely just moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade within a broad 112.00/114.20 range for now even though the immediate bias is tilted to the downside.

Source: exfxnews.com

EUR/USD: Shift from bullish to NEUTRAL: In a broad 1.1320/1.1520 range.

While EUR broke above the strong weekly trend-line resistance at 1.1445 on Tuesday, the failure to hold on to its gains coupled with the sharp drop indicates that the shift to a bullish stance yesterday was wrong. We are neutral now and the recent price action looks like the early stages of a ‘rising wedge’ formation but the key support is much further down at 1.1320. In the meanwhile, EUR is expected to continue to trade choppily, likely within a broad 1.1320/1.1520 range.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 05 Jul 17, 1.2925): In a 1.2800/1.2975 range.

In line with expectation, GBP ‘probed’ lower but the major 1.2800 support was unthreatened (low of 1.2812). The subsequent sharp bounce from the low reinforces our current neutral view for GBP and we continue to expect this pair to trade sideways within a 1.2800/1.2975 range. 

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Jul 17, 0.7610): Immediate upward pressure toward 0.7710/15.

We indicated yesterday that AUD is expected to “grind higher towards 0.7685”. The pace of the up-move is more rapid than expected and upward momentum has improved further but we are still not convinced that this pair has re-entered a bullish phase. That said, the immediate pressure is clearly on the upside and from here, extension towards the June’s peak near 0.7710/15 would not be surprising. At this stage, a sustained move above this level seems unlikely. Overall, this pair is expected to stay underpinned in the coming days as long as the key support at 0.7630 is intact. 

NZD/USD: Shift from bearish to NEUTRAL: In a 0.7200/0.7330 range.

The shift to a bearish stance yesterday was wrong as NZD staged a swift and strong rebound from the 0.7202 low seen on Tuesday and took out the stop-loss for our bearish view at 0.7280 (high of 0.7281). The sharp drop and the subsequent strong swing higher have resulted in an unclear outlook. We are neutral now and expect this pair to continue to trade choppily in a broad 0.7200/0.7330 range. 

USD/JPY: Shift from bullish to NEUTRAL:  In a 112.00/114.20 range. 

While we warned of the increased risk of an interim top yesterday, the pace and extent of the USD decline was unexpected (the 0.69% decline is the largest single-day drop in more than a month). The bullish phase that started on 20 Jun (spot at 111.65) has ended with the break of 113.40 (low has been 112.90). USD has likely just moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade within a broad 112.00/114.20 range for now even though the immediate bias is tilted to the downside.

Source: exfxnews.com

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