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Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 12.07.2019

Bulls-and-bears_Forex_FXPIG_12.07.2019

EUR/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW Immediate bias is for EUR to test the bottom of the expected 1.1225/1.1280 sideway trading range. Our view yesterday was that there is “room for EUR to test 1.1285 but a move beyond 1.1310 is not expected”. In line with expectation, EUR touched 1.1285 during early NY hours before easing off to end the day little changed (1.1252, +0.03%). Upward pressure has eased and the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, EUR is expected to trade sideways for today even though the immediate bias is for it to probe the bottom of the expected 1.1225/1.1280 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW EUR is expected to trade sideways. There is not much to add to the update from yesterday as EUR retreated after touching 1.1285 and ended the day little changed. As indicated yesterday (11 Jul, spot at 1.1255), EUR is expected to trade sideways for now, likely between 1.1200 and 1.1310. At this stage, there is no early indication on which direction is more ‘vulnerable’.

GBP/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW GBP is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.2485/1.2555 range. While we expected GBP to “extend its gains” yesterday, we were of the view that “a break of 1.2550 is unlikely”. However, GBP surged to 1.2571 before dropping back quickly. Upward momentum is patchy at best and the risk for GBP to move beyond the 1.2571 high is deemed as low. From here, GBP is more likely to trade sideways to slightly lower, expected to be within a 1.2485/1.2555 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW GBP is expected to trade sideways. After GBP dropped to 1.2439 on Tuesday, we indicated on Wednesday (10 Jul, spot at 1.2465) that we “prefer to wait for a NY close 1.2440 before adopting a more negative stance”. The strong recovery in GBP yesterday (11 Jul) took out the strong resistance at 1.2550 which suggest that the recent downward pressure has eased. In other words, the risk for a sustained decline in GBP has been alleviated. From here, GBP is expected to trade sideways, likely within a relatively broad range of 1.2440/1.2600

AUD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW AUD could drift lower to 0.6950. AUD traded between 0.6955 and 0.6988 yesterday, narrower than our expected 0.6935/0.6985 range. Upward momentum appears to be ‘struggling’ but it is too early to expect a significant pull-back. From here, barring a move above 0.7000, AUD could drift lower to 0.6950.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW AUD is expected to trade sideways. AUD touched a high of 0.6988 yesterday, just a couple of pips below the 0.6990 ‘strong resistance’. The price action is enough to indicate that our view from Wednesday (10 Jul, spot at 0.6930) for AUD to “trade with a downside bias towards 0.6880” is incorrect. From here, the outlook for AUD is not clear and it is likely to continue to trade in an ‘undecided’ manner within a broad 0.6910/0.7050 range (the range for the past couple of weeks).

NZD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW NZD is likely to stay below 0.6690 but any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.6640/0.6690 range. Expectation for NZD to trade sideways was incorrect as it rose to a high of 0.6688 before easing off. Despite the relatively strong advance, upward momentum has not improved by much. While NZD is likely to stay below 0.6690 from here, any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.6640/0.6690 range and not the start of a sustained down-move.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW NZD is expected to trade sideways for a period. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

We indicated yesterday that NZD is likely to trade with a ‘downside bias’ towards 0.6560. NZD subsequently briefly dipped to 0.6567 before staging a robust rebound and came close to taking out the 0.6560 ‘strong resistance’. The price action suggests that NZD could have made a short-term bottom at 0.6567. The outlook from here is not very clear and NZD could trade sideways between 0.6610 and 0.6710 for a period of time.

USD/JPY:

24-HOUR VIEW Rapid and robust rebound in USD has scope to extend higher but a sustained move above 108.95 is not expected. While our view that USD “could test 108.00 but a move below 107.75 is unlikely” was not incorrect, the subsequent surge from a low of 107.85 came as a surprise. The rapid and robust rebound has scope to extend higher but at this stage, a sustained move above 108.95 is not expected. Support is at 108.35 but the stronger level is at 108.15. The 107.85 low is not expected to come into the picture.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW USD is expected to trade sideways. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

Our view from yesterday (10 Jul, spot at 108.90) wherein USD is expected to move to 109.30 was proven wrong quickly as it plummeted after touching a 5-week high of 108.98. The rapid drop took out the 108.35 ‘key support’ (overnight low of 108.33). From here, USD is deemed to have moved into a sideway-trading phase and is likely to trade within a relatively broad range of 107.50 and 108.95.

Source: efxdata

EUR/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW Immediate bias is for EUR to test the bottom of the expected 1.1225/1.1280 sideway trading range. Our view yesterday was that there is “room for EUR to test 1.1285 but a move beyond 1.1310 is not expected”. In line with expectation, EUR touched 1.1285 during early NY hours before easing off to end the day little changed (1.1252, +0.03%). Upward pressure has eased and the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, EUR is expected to trade sideways for today even though the immediate bias is for it to probe the bottom of the expected 1.1225/1.1280 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW EUR is expected to trade sideways. There is not much to add to the update from yesterday as EUR retreated after touching 1.1285 and ended the day little changed. As indicated yesterday (11 Jul, spot at 1.1255), EUR is expected to trade sideways for now, likely between 1.1200 and 1.1310. At this stage, there is no early indication on which direction is more ‘vulnerable’.

GBP/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW GBP is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.2485/1.2555 range. While we expected GBP to “extend its gains” yesterday, we were of the view that “a break of 1.2550 is unlikely”. However, GBP surged to 1.2571 before dropping back quickly. Upward momentum is patchy at best and the risk for GBP to move beyond the 1.2571 high is deemed as low. From here, GBP is more likely to trade sideways to slightly lower, expected to be within a 1.2485/1.2555 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW GBP is expected to trade sideways. After GBP dropped to 1.2439 on Tuesday, we indicated on Wednesday (10 Jul, spot at 1.2465) that we “prefer to wait for a NY close 1.2440 before adopting a more negative stance”. The strong recovery in GBP yesterday (11 Jul) took out the strong resistance at 1.2550 which suggest that the recent downward pressure has eased. In other words, the risk for a sustained decline in GBP has been alleviated. From here, GBP is expected to trade sideways, likely within a relatively broad range of 1.2440/1.2600

AUD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW AUD could drift lower to 0.6950. AUD traded between 0.6955 and 0.6988 yesterday, narrower than our expected 0.6935/0.6985 range. Upward momentum appears to be ‘struggling’ but it is too early to expect a significant pull-back. From here, barring a move above 0.7000, AUD could drift lower to 0.6950.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW AUD is expected to trade sideways. AUD touched a high of 0.6988 yesterday, just a couple of pips below the 0.6990 ‘strong resistance’. The price action is enough to indicate that our view from Wednesday (10 Jul, spot at 0.6930) for AUD to “trade with a downside bias towards 0.6880” is incorrect. From here, the outlook for AUD is not clear and it is likely to continue to trade in an ‘undecided’ manner within a broad 0.6910/0.7050 range (the range for the past couple of weeks).

NZD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW NZD is likely to stay below 0.6690 but any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.6640/0.6690 range. Expectation for NZD to trade sideways was incorrect as it rose to a high of 0.6688 before easing off. Despite the relatively strong advance, upward momentum has not improved by much. While NZD is likely to stay below 0.6690 from here, any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.6640/0.6690 range and not the start of a sustained down-move.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW NZD is expected to trade sideways for a period. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

We indicated yesterday that NZD is likely to trade with a ‘downside bias’ towards 0.6560. NZD subsequently briefly dipped to 0.6567 before staging a robust rebound and came close to taking out the 0.6560 ‘strong resistance’. The price action suggests that NZD could have made a short-term bottom at 0.6567. The outlook from here is not very clear and NZD could trade sideways between 0.6610 and 0.6710 for a period of time.

USD/JPY:

24-HOUR VIEW Rapid and robust rebound in USD has scope to extend higher but a sustained move above 108.95 is not expected. While our view that USD “could test 108.00 but a move below 107.75 is unlikely” was not incorrect, the subsequent surge from a low of 107.85 came as a surprise. The rapid and robust rebound has scope to extend higher but at this stage, a sustained move above 108.95 is not expected. Support is at 108.35 but the stronger level is at 108.15. The 107.85 low is not expected to come into the picture.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW USD is expected to trade sideways. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

Our view from yesterday (10 Jul, spot at 108.90) wherein USD is expected to move to 109.30 was proven wrong quickly as it plummeted after touching a 5-week high of 108.98. The rapid drop took out the 108.35 ‘key support’ (overnight low of 108.33). From here, USD is deemed to have moved into a sideway-trading phase and is likely to trade within a relatively broad range of 107.50 and 108.95.

Source: efxdata

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Market Analysis
Trump is not in a hurry - Rabobank
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Market Analysis
EUR/USD comes under pressure and breaches 1.10 on PMIs
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Market Analysis
FOREX Week Ahead: Markets remain focused on geopolitical risks
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Market Analysis
Gold climbs further beyond $1500 mark, lacks follow-through
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Market Analysis
BOE prepares the ground
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