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Bulls-and-bears_Forex_FXPIG-tech-analysis_16.04.2019

EUR/USD: A NY close above 1.1330 would suggest EUR is ready to tackle 1.1400.

There is not much to add as EUR traded in a quiet manner before ending the day marginally higher at 1.1307 (+0.06%). As highlighted yesterday (15 Apr, spot at 1.1300), upward momentum has improved and the risk for a higher EUR has increased. From here, if EUR could close above 1.1330 in NY within these few days, it would be a strong indication that EUR is ready to tackle the next resistance at 1.1400. On the downside, only a break of the 1.1240 ‘key support’ (no change in level) would suggest that the current upward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: GBP is expected to continue to trade sideways.

Volatility decreases further as GBP continues to trade sideways within narrow ranges (the registered range of 49 pips yesterday was the third narrowest 1-day range this year). We have held the same view since earlier this month (04 Apr) that GBP is expected to trade sideways within a broad range. While the sideway-trading phase would likely persist, a 1.2950/1.3200 range is likely enough to contain the price action in GBP from here.

AUD/USD: AUD strength could extend to 0.7210.

There is not much to add as AUD registered the narrowest 1-day range this year (of 19 pips between 0.7164 and 0.7183). The muted price action and the largely unchanged closing in NY (0.7172, -0.01%) offer no fresh clues. In other words, there is no change in view from yesterday (15 Apr, spot at 0.7170) wherein the current strength in AUD could extend to 0.7210 in the coming days. 0.7210 is a rather critical resistance and a clear break of this level would suggest AUD is ready to move even higher in the weeks ahead (next significant resistance is at the Jan’s peak near 0.7295). On the downside, only a break of the 0.7115 ‘key support’ (no change in level) would suggest that a short-term top is in place.

NZD/USD: Risk of a short-term bottom has increased. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

While NZD dropped to a low 0.6714 early last Friday (12 Apr), it staged a sudden and sharp reversal and hit 0.6782 before ending the day on a firm note in NY (0.6760, +0.47%). While our 0.6785 ‘key resistance’ is still intact, the price action suggests that the risk of a short-term bottom has increased. In other words, the ‘negative phase’ started in late March appears to be close to ending (confirmed upon a break of 0.6785). Meanwhile, NZD could attempt to move towards 0.6700 but the odds for such a move have diminished considerably.

USD/JPY: USD is expected to trade with a positive bias but 112.60 could be out of reach. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

The ‘sideway-trading phase’ in USD that started in late March has ended as it hit a high of 112.09 last Friday before closing at a 4-month high of 112.02. The price action suggests the current USD strength could extend further in the coming days even though the major 112.60 resistance could be out of reach. All in, we expect USD to trade with a positive bias and only a break of the 111.20 ‘key support’ would suggest that the current ‘positive phase’ in USD has ended.

Source: efxdata

EUR/USD: A NY close above 1.1330 would suggest EUR is ready to tackle 1.1400.

There is not much to add as EUR traded in a quiet manner before ending the day marginally higher at 1.1307 (+0.06%). As highlighted yesterday (15 Apr, spot at 1.1300), upward momentum has improved and the risk for a higher EUR has increased. From here, if EUR could close above 1.1330 in NY within these few days, it would be a strong indication that EUR is ready to tackle the next resistance at 1.1400. On the downside, only a break of the 1.1240 ‘key support’ (no change in level) would suggest that the current upward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: GBP is expected to continue to trade sideways.

Volatility decreases further as GBP continues to trade sideways within narrow ranges (the registered range of 49 pips yesterday was the third narrowest 1-day range this year). We have held the same view since earlier this month (04 Apr) that GBP is expected to trade sideways within a broad range. While the sideway-trading phase would likely persist, a 1.2950/1.3200 range is likely enough to contain the price action in GBP from here.

AUD/USD: AUD strength could extend to 0.7210.

There is not much to add as AUD registered the narrowest 1-day range this year (of 19 pips between 0.7164 and 0.7183). The muted price action and the largely unchanged closing in NY (0.7172, -0.01%) offer no fresh clues. In other words, there is no change in view from yesterday (15 Apr, spot at 0.7170) wherein the current strength in AUD could extend to 0.7210 in the coming days. 0.7210 is a rather critical resistance and a clear break of this level would suggest AUD is ready to move even higher in the weeks ahead (next significant resistance is at the Jan’s peak near 0.7295). On the downside, only a break of the 0.7115 ‘key support’ (no change in level) would suggest that a short-term top is in place.

NZD/USD: Risk of a short-term bottom has increased. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

While NZD dropped to a low 0.6714 early last Friday (12 Apr), it staged a sudden and sharp reversal and hit 0.6782 before ending the day on a firm note in NY (0.6760, +0.47%). While our 0.6785 ‘key resistance’ is still intact, the price action suggests that the risk of a short-term bottom has increased. In other words, the ‘negative phase’ started in late March appears to be close to ending (confirmed upon a break of 0.6785). Meanwhile, NZD could attempt to move towards 0.6700 but the odds for such a move have diminished considerably.

USD/JPY: USD is expected to trade with a positive bias but 112.60 could be out of reach. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

The ‘sideway-trading phase’ in USD that started in late March has ended as it hit a high of 112.09 last Friday before closing at a 4-month high of 112.02. The price action suggests the current USD strength could extend further in the coming days even though the major 112.60 resistance could be out of reach. All in, we expect USD to trade with a positive bias and only a break of the 111.20 ‘key support’ would suggest that the current ‘positive phase’ in USD has ended.

Source: efxdata

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