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Forex Tech Targets

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EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Weakened undertone increases risk of a deeper pull-back.

We have held a neutral stance for about a month now and since then; EUR has been trading within a relatively narrow 1.2237/1.2476 range. That said, shorter-term price action has been erratic and the outlook remains mixed. However, EUR closed on a soft note in NY yesterday and the weakened undertone increases the risk of a move below the previously expected 1.2235/1.2475 consolidation range. While a dip below 1.2235 would not be surprising, the 1.2153 low seen in early March is another major support and based on the current lackluster momentum, any weakness is expected to encounter solid support near this level. Overall, EUR is expected to stay under mild downward pressure from here unless it can move back above 1.2420.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Odds for a move higher to test 1.4280 have diminished.

There is not much to add as we continue to detect a mild positive undertone in GBP. While the odds have diminished, another attempt to move higher to test the major 1.4280 resistance is not ruled out just yet. Only a clear break below 1.4000 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased. That said, GBP has to move and stay above 1.4100 soon or the odds for a move to 1.4280 would diminish further.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 22 Mar 18, 0.7770): AUD has moved into a consolidation phase.

AUD staged a mild recovery yesterday but eased off quickly after touching a high of 0.7707. The recent mild downward bias is easing but it is too early to expect a sustained rebound. In other words, there is no change to the current neutral outlook and we continue to expect AUD to trade sideways for now, likely within a 0.7630/0.7770 range.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): NZD has moved back into a consolidation mode.

While the relatively strong bounce in NZD yesterday came as a surprise and further strength is not ruled out, we viewed any advance as part of 0.7150/0.7305 consolidation range and not the start of a sustained advance. NZD could move above 0.7305 but last month’s 0.7355 top is another major resistance and this level is unlikely to yield so easily. In other words, while prolonged, the current neutral phase that started two month ago is still clearly intact (note that the current level of 0.7260 is not far from 0.7280, the level when the neutral phase first started on 05 Feb).

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): USD is expected to trade sideways.

USD rebounded strongly and regained all and more of the loss made on Monday. As highlighted yesterday (03 Apr, 105.75), we still view last week’s 104.55 low as a short-term bottom and only an unlikely break of this level would indicate that USD has entered a bearish phase. For now, we expect USD to continue to trade sideways, albeit likely at a higher 105.50/107.30 range (instead of 104.80/106.80 expected previously).

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Mar 18, 1.2335): Weakened undertone increases risk of a deeper pull-back.

We have held a neutral stance for about a month now and since then; EUR has been trading within a relatively narrow 1.2237/1.2476 range. That said, shorter-term price action has been erratic and the outlook remains mixed. However, EUR closed on a soft note in NY yesterday and the weakened undertone increases the risk of a move below the previously expected 1.2235/1.2475 consolidation range. While a dip below 1.2235 would not be surprising, the 1.2153 low seen in early March is another major support and based on the current lackluster momentum, any weakness is expected to encounter solid support near this level. Overall, EUR is expected to stay under mild downward pressure from here unless it can move back above 1.2420.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 07 Mar 18, 1.3895): Odds for a move higher to test 1.4280 have diminished.

There is not much to add as we continue to detect a mild positive undertone in GBP. While the odds have diminished, another attempt to move higher to test the major 1.4280 resistance is not ruled out just yet. Only a clear break below 1.4000 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased. That said, GBP has to move and stay above 1.4100 soon or the odds for a move to 1.4280 would diminish further.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 22 Mar 18, 0.7770): AUD has moved into a consolidation phase.

AUD staged a mild recovery yesterday but eased off quickly after touching a high of 0.7707. The recent mild downward bias is easing but it is too early to expect a sustained rebound. In other words, there is no change to the current neutral outlook and we continue to expect AUD to trade sideways for now, likely within a 0.7630/0.7770 range.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 05 Feb 18, 0.7280): NZD has moved back into a consolidation mode.

While the relatively strong bounce in NZD yesterday came as a surprise and further strength is not ruled out, we viewed any advance as part of 0.7150/0.7305 consolidation range and not the start of a sustained advance. NZD could move above 0.7305 but last month’s 0.7355 top is another major resistance and this level is unlikely to yield so easily. In other words, while prolonged, the current neutral phase that started two month ago is still clearly intact (note that the current level of 0.7260 is not far from 0.7280, the level when the neutral phase first started on 05 Feb).

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 21 Feb 18, 107.35): USD is expected to trade sideways.

USD rebounded strongly and regained all and more of the loss made on Monday. As highlighted yesterday (03 Apr, 105.75), we still view last week’s 104.55 low as a short-term bottom and only an unlikely break of this level would indicate that USD has entered a bearish phase. For now, we expect USD to continue to trade sideways, albeit likely at a higher 105.50/107.30 range (instead of 104.80/106.80 expected previously).

Source: efxdata.com

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