something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

FOREX Week Ahead

Hurricanes Hit Number of Jobs but Not Wages

The USD dollar is higher across the board against major pairs. The American currency posted weekly gains against major pairs, but had a mixed performance Friday in the aftermath of the release of the U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report. The expected impact of hurricanes in September manifested itself in the first negative NFP reading since 2010. The US economy lost 33,000 jobs in September, but wages surprised with a 0.5 percent gain. The focus of investors has shifted from the headline number of jobs to inflation indicators, such as wages. The strong gain was quickly priced in with the CME FedWatch tool showing a higher than 90 percent probability of a rate hike in December.

The next hurdle for a December rate lift by the U.S. Federal Reserve will come with the release of retail sales and consumer price index (CPI) data on Friday, October 13 at 8:30 am EDT. Retail sales were weaker than expected in September with a contraction in the headline number. Inflation on the other hand met the forecast and given the focus will be on the CPI for clues that validate or weaken a case for a Fed December hike.

The pound has fallen to a one month low as Prime Minister Theresa May, has lost the confidence of a large group of Conservative MPs with a potential ouster in the cards. Disappointing data and political uncertainty are anticipated to continue next week for sterling despite hawkish comments from Bank of England (BoE) policy makers. The euro remains under pressure from the after shocks of the Catalonia independence referendum and awaiting further developments.

The EUR/USD lost 0.75 percent in the last five days. The single pair is trading at 1.1693 in a week that saw the resurgence of the USD with strong economic releases, Fed members supporting a rate hike and the rise in wages putting some inflationary pressure. European data was mixed by contrast with the biggest topics once again turning to political uncertainty. The Catalonia independence referendum and the response by the Spanish government have brought the fragility of the EU into focus once again. Brexit talk and the political infighting within the Conservative party in the UK also weighted on the euro versus the greenback.

US indicators will dominate the calendar in the week from October 9 to 13. FOMC member speeches, the release of the minutes from the September FOMC meeting, US producer price index, inflation and retail sales with only the speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi on Wednesday a highlight for the EUR.

‍The GBP/USD lost 2.67 percent this week. Cable is trading at 1.3038 with markets losing confidence in Prime Minister May and her party might be pushing to oust her. Disappointing data this week in construction and manufacturing PMIs offset comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers about a possible rate hike later this year. Ian McCafferty and chief economist Andy Haldane issued comments this week that supported the view of Governor Mark Carney about the economy being strong enough to remove stimulus. That is precisely the point that was put in question by the weak data and presents an issue for the BoE. After so much rhetoric to hike rates will the current trend of soft data forced them to rethink their intended rate path, or do they follow through in fear of losing credibility?

Manufacturing production data will be released on Tuesday, October 10 at 4:30 am EDT on a week with little UK indicators to guide traders. The US economic calendar is not as busy but will feature the release of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on Wednesday, October 11 at 2:00 pm EDT and comments from FOMC members throughout the week. The highlight of the week for the GBP/USD will be the release of inflation and retail sales data. In the past it has proven to be a tough obstacle for a NFP driven dollar rally to survive.

Source: marketpulse.com

Hurricanes Hit Number of Jobs but Not Wages

The USD dollar is higher across the board against major pairs. The American currency posted weekly gains against major pairs, but had a mixed performance Friday in the aftermath of the release of the U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report. The expected impact of hurricanes in September manifested itself in the first negative NFP reading since 2010. The US economy lost 33,000 jobs in September, but wages surprised with a 0.5 percent gain. The focus of investors has shifted from the headline number of jobs to inflation indicators, such as wages. The strong gain was quickly priced in with the CME FedWatch tool showing a higher than 90 percent probability of a rate hike in December.

The next hurdle for a December rate lift by the U.S. Federal Reserve will come with the release of retail sales and consumer price index (CPI) data on Friday, October 13 at 8:30 am EDT. Retail sales were weaker than expected in September with a contraction in the headline number. Inflation on the other hand met the forecast and given the focus will be on the CPI for clues that validate or weaken a case for a Fed December hike.

The pound has fallen to a one month low as Prime Minister Theresa May, has lost the confidence of a large group of Conservative MPs with a potential ouster in the cards. Disappointing data and political uncertainty are anticipated to continue next week for sterling despite hawkish comments from Bank of England (BoE) policy makers. The euro remains under pressure from the after shocks of the Catalonia independence referendum and awaiting further developments.

The EUR/USD lost 0.75 percent in the last five days. The single pair is trading at 1.1693 in a week that saw the resurgence of the USD with strong economic releases, Fed members supporting a rate hike and the rise in wages putting some inflationary pressure. European data was mixed by contrast with the biggest topics once again turning to political uncertainty. The Catalonia independence referendum and the response by the Spanish government have brought the fragility of the EU into focus once again. Brexit talk and the political infighting within the Conservative party in the UK also weighted on the euro versus the greenback.

US indicators will dominate the calendar in the week from October 9 to 13. FOMC member speeches, the release of the minutes from the September FOMC meeting, US producer price index, inflation and retail sales with only the speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi on Wednesday a highlight for the EUR.

‍The GBP/USD lost 2.67 percent this week. Cable is trading at 1.3038 with markets losing confidence in Prime Minister May and her party might be pushing to oust her. Disappointing data this week in construction and manufacturing PMIs offset comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers about a possible rate hike later this year. Ian McCafferty and chief economist Andy Haldane issued comments this week that supported the view of Governor Mark Carney about the economy being strong enough to remove stimulus. That is precisely the point that was put in question by the weak data and presents an issue for the BoE. After so much rhetoric to hike rates will the current trend of soft data forced them to rethink their intended rate path, or do they follow through in fear of losing credibility?

Manufacturing production data will be released on Tuesday, October 10 at 4:30 am EDT on a week with little UK indicators to guide traders. The US economic calendar is not as busy but will feature the release of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on Wednesday, October 11 at 2:00 pm EDT and comments from FOMC members throughout the week. The highlight of the week for the GBP/USD will be the release of inflation and retail sales data. In the past it has proven to be a tough obstacle for a NFP driven dollar rally to survive.

Source: marketpulse.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Gold loses momentum, edges lower toward $1300
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOJ’s Kuroda: “We will mull more easing if price momentum is lost"
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC Preview: What 17 major banks are expecting from March meeting?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 19.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: 18.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed is likely to signal just one more rate hike – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -18.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD fades a knee-jerk bullish spike to levels beyond 1.3300 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD: RBA market pricing absorbed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: USD bounces alongside T-yields in Asia; UK politics/ Brexit in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD remains bid and flirts with 1.1300, looks to Brexit, data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 13.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold adds to gains beyond $1300 mark, hits 1-1/2 week tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR: Shorts restrained
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY-12.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit and US CPI amongst market movers today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -11.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD struggles to gain positive traction, but holds above 1.3400 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bounce is likely - Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Pound Fails to Capitalize on Dollar Stumble Ahead of Brexit Votes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold clings to recovery gains above $1290
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: All focus on TLTRO announcement
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Focus on Fed speak and trade data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 06.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoC: Policy rate likely to remain unchanged - Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD slides back closer to session lows, focus shifts to Carney's testimony
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold consolidates in a range, hangs near 6-week lows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Antipodeans slip on China woes; Eurozone/ UK services PMI eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD: Prohibitive?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD drops to session low, bulls struggling to defend 1.3200 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk-on amid US-China trade optimism; UK construction PMI – Up next
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Global growth hinges on China’s Big Week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: Bears await a sustained break below 1-month old trend-line support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: The cross now targets the key 200-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen weakest in Asia risk-on; focus on UK PMI, Eurozone CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold bears looking for a break of the $1,300/oz level to 38.2% Fibo target
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD turns flat below 1.14 as DXY clings to gains above 96
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 28.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Prices stabilising
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit to remain in focus this week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold edges lower to $1325 level, focus remains on Powell’s testimony
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD within a tight range near 1.1350, focus on Powell
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold drops below $1330 as USD recovers modestly
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY challenges 2-day highs near 125.80
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 25.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Higher on Stronger Oil and Softer Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD eases from tops beyond 1.1350 post-IFO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 22.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP flirting with highs near 0.8700, focus on Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD struggles for direction near 1.1340
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie sees big moves in Asia; Eurozone flash PMIs, ECB minutes – Up next
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC Minutes Preview: Major Banks expecting a reiteration of a dovish message
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Range preserved – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoJ’s Kuroda: Doesn't believe current BoJ policy is weakening the Yen
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Comments from Fed’s Mester show balance sheet decision may come as early as March
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold bulls seeking out a run to $1,360/oz while now testing out 10-month highs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD returns to 1.1300 on mixed German, EMU ZEW
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD eases from 3-day highs above 1.1330
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold bulls take a breather just ahead of $1326 level, or multi-month tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB to stay on hold in 2019-20 – Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Falls as Trade Optimism and Domestic Uncertainty Take Their Toll
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Prices are undervalued given the current supply uncertainty - Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD rebound from 2019 lows, back around 1.1280
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold hits 2-week tops, around $1320 level amid global growth concerns
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro shrugs off soft German, eurozone GDP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD falls to 1-month low, 1.2800 mark back on sight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD is sitting at key support level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/MXN holds bullish tone, near 19.30
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD recovers above 1.13 as greenback continues to weaken
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD: Downside seems limited in 2019 - Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD depressed and closer to 1.1300
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 11.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
China stocks climb after holiday break, driven by trade-deal hopes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar’s next move depends on Trump’s trade progress and border wall funding concession
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
We see risk that EUR/USD could retreat towards 1.12 on a 3 to 6 mth view - Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD spikes to fresh session tops, around 1.2970 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (07.02.2019)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: Descending channel/200-hour SMA confluence region to cap goodish intraday bounce
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Bulls trying to defend descending channel support ahead of BoE
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EU slashes euro-zone growth forecast to 1.3%, Italy only 0.2% - EUR/USD pressured
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slides to $1312 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD rallies over 40-pips from 2-week lows, refreshes session tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Choppy?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Wekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Soft Dollar and Strong Stock Market Supported by Dovish Fed and Strong US Economic Data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY-01.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD continues to consolidate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (31.01.2019)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY drops to 6-day lows near 124.50
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit: Drop the backstop and create a customs association, Ifo economists say
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (30.01.2019)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD: Upbeat inflation pleased Aussie bulls before Fed meets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Upside stalled near the 100-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (29.01.2019)
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Why the Fed may not announce a change to its balance sheet plan on Wednesday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD drops to session lows, recovers to 1.3150 as Brexit Plan B debate continues
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 29.01.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY 28.01.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Falls Ahead of Busy Week in Markets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613