something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

Forex Week Ahead:

Forex_week_ahead_2020

The US dollar is on the backfoot at the end of the year as the trade truce between the US and China has opened the risk appetite flood gates. Risk aversion had limited gains in global stock markets and currencies. The optimism around a phase 1 deal is still high, but more details should be coming in the new year to see how “limited” the agreement really is.

Gold is back above $1,500 to close out the year as dollar weakness and demand for bullion pushed the yellow metal higher. Higher risk appetite and signs of a trade truce put pressure on gold, but with Brexit and the US presidential elections awaiting in 2020 there will be demand for a safe haven.

The Loonie Got its Groove Back

The Canadian dollar had a standout year in 2019 and will be the biggest winner against the dollar. The rate differential has favoured the loonie as the Bank of Canada stood on hold as the Fed cut three times this year. Crude prices improved after Beijing and Washington made peace and the OPEP+ added even more stability by extending and further limiting production.

Oil prices are higher after trade between the two largest economies is now on the mend. The actions of the OPEP+ to drop production even further has boosted prices, even as countries who are not part of the agreement will look to reap the benefits.

With markets in Christmas slumber-mode, there aren’t too many risk points for Asia next week.

Hong Kong

The run-up to the Christmas season has been quiet on the protest front, and is likely to continue like that until January.
As the economy plunges deeper and deeper into recession, there is a risk that clashes could spring up among the rising unemployed (the unemployment rate rose to a 2-1/2 year high this month) and anti-government protestors. The US-China trade truce might offer a chance for the economy to rebound a touch. November’s retail sales data due on Friday January 3 are not expected to overwhelm.

Risk
As always, there is the risk that protests turn violent again, which would be negative for the HK33 index and could push USD/HKD back to the upper half of the trading band.

China

Nothing much to report now that the Phase 1 trade deal is agreed in principle, barring any unforeseen setbacks. Expectations are that it will be ratified/signed in the second half on January. There are no more data points until the December PMIs are released on New Years Eve.

Risk
Any back-tracking on the Phase 1 details would be negative for risk, hurt the CN50 index and boost USD/CNH.

India

Nothing to report until next year.
Risk
n/a

Australia

It’s almost certain that the RBA is on hold until at least the second half of 2020, barring any sudden downturn in economic data. Wildfires raging in New South Wales could hit economic activity for this quarter. Manufacturing PMI data are due on January 2.

Risk
Any severe downward bias to AU data would be detrimental to local equities and the AUD, positive for bonds.

New Zealand

Very quiet for the next week.

Japan

Japan markets are closed January 1-3, so there isn’t likely to be much activity.


Monday, December 30

• 10:45am USD Chicago PMI
• 9:00pm CNY Manufacturing PMI
• 9:00pm CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday, December 31

• 11:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, Jan 1

• 9:45pm CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Thursday,Jan 2

• 5:30am GBP Final Manufacturing PMI

Friday, Jan 3

• 11:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 12:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories
• 3:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Source: marketpulse

The US dollar is on the backfoot at the end of the year as the trade truce between the US and China has opened the risk appetite flood gates. Risk aversion had limited gains in global stock markets and currencies. The optimism around a phase 1 deal is still high, but more details should be coming in the new year to see how “limited” the agreement really is.

Gold is back above $1,500 to close out the year as dollar weakness and demand for bullion pushed the yellow metal higher. Higher risk appetite and signs of a trade truce put pressure on gold, but with Brexit and the US presidential elections awaiting in 2020 there will be demand for a safe haven.

The Loonie Got its Groove Back

The Canadian dollar had a standout year in 2019 and will be the biggest winner against the dollar. The rate differential has favoured the loonie as the Bank of Canada stood on hold as the Fed cut three times this year. Crude prices improved after Beijing and Washington made peace and the OPEP+ added even more stability by extending and further limiting production.

Oil prices are higher after trade between the two largest economies is now on the mend. The actions of the OPEP+ to drop production even further has boosted prices, even as countries who are not part of the agreement will look to reap the benefits.

With markets in Christmas slumber-mode, there aren’t too many risk points for Asia next week.

Hong Kong

The run-up to the Christmas season has been quiet on the protest front, and is likely to continue like that until January.
As the economy plunges deeper and deeper into recession, there is a risk that clashes could spring up among the rising unemployed (the unemployment rate rose to a 2-1/2 year high this month) and anti-government protestors. The US-China trade truce might offer a chance for the economy to rebound a touch. November’s retail sales data due on Friday January 3 are not expected to overwhelm.

Risk
As always, there is the risk that protests turn violent again, which would be negative for the HK33 index and could push USD/HKD back to the upper half of the trading band.

China

Nothing much to report now that the Phase 1 trade deal is agreed in principle, barring any unforeseen setbacks. Expectations are that it will be ratified/signed in the second half on January. There are no more data points until the December PMIs are released on New Years Eve.

Risk
Any back-tracking on the Phase 1 details would be negative for risk, hurt the CN50 index and boost USD/CNH.

India

Nothing to report until next year.
Risk
n/a

Australia

It’s almost certain that the RBA is on hold until at least the second half of 2020, barring any sudden downturn in economic data. Wildfires raging in New South Wales could hit economic activity for this quarter. Manufacturing PMI data are due on January 2.

Risk
Any severe downward bias to AU data would be detrimental to local equities and the AUD, positive for bonds.

New Zealand

Very quiet for the next week.

Japan

Japan markets are closed January 1-3, so there isn’t likely to be much activity.


Monday, December 30

• 10:45am USD Chicago PMI
• 9:00pm CNY Manufacturing PMI
• 9:00pm CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday, December 31

• 11:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, Jan 1

• 9:45pm CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Thursday,Jan 2

• 5:30am GBP Final Manufacturing PMI

Friday, Jan 3

• 11:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 12:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories
• 3:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Source: marketpulse

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Turning a Corner on COVID-19
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Energy sector up
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Upsurge testing major resistance
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EUR/USD falls toward Macron gap, Pound enjoys Javid jump, US consumer, coronavirus eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Australian dollar: Under the weight of the world – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar May Rise on Haven Demand as Coronavirus Fears Swell
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Levels to watch after coronavirus-fueled jump – Confluence Detector
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Edges Lower as Coronavirus Worries Take Back Seat To Stock Gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed Chair Powell likely to give Congress largely positive economic update
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus fears subside, trio of central bankers set to move USD, EUR, GBP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD May Rise on Wuhan Virus Risk Ahead of White House Budget
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: China tries to calm coronavirus-hit markets, dollar remains strong, Bitcoin battles $10,000
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD remains capped and vulnerable to additional falls – Confluence Detector
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Virus risk uncertainty, Powell testifies to Congress, RBNZ to signal patience, and Germany’s recession fears
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Markets await the result of production cuts – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold struggles for direction around $1,570/oz
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Oversold conditions implying a bounce
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Lagarde: Low interest rate and low inflation has significantly reduced the scope to ease policy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie – the strongest as China trade optimism boosts risk further
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOJ’s Masai: Will take steps, including those to make easy policy sustainable
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Trump win is not done – Standard Chartered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro May Rise on Retail Sales as Traders Eye Key Debt Release
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus dampens mood, top US Non-Farm Payrolls hints eyed, Ripple roars
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Exclusive: FXPIG Secures Bobby Winters as its CEO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8b0332acc130dc650331fd558f82add2
Market Analysis
British Pound (GBP) Latest: Outlook Bleak as Brexit Slide Continues
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slides to multi-day lows, below $1570
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brent crude falls as China cuts refining rates on virus outbreak
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Ease Back Despite China Stock Plunge On Virus Worries
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus devastates Chinese markets, Boris pressures the pound, US data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Virus Saga Continues, Iowa Caucuses are here, RBA to deliver dovish hold, and US NFP to see slight rebound
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Cautiously optimistic on Brexit day; Eurozone data in spotlight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Prices Gain as WHO Stops Short Of Advising Travel Ban
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: diminishing bets for extra weakness – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
JPY Futures: Extra upside lacks momentum
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus boosts Gold, BOE coin-flip and US growth eagerly awaited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
British Pound May Fall on BoE Rate Decision, Brexit Concerns
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Rehn: Latest information on core inflation signal a rise, EUR/USD attacks 1.10
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar May Bloom on FOMC Outlook, Corporate Earnings
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus surpasses SARS, Trump's impeachment gets interesting, Fed in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Steady As Virus Spread Saps Global Risk Appetite
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Calm amid China’s coronavirus storm; US data in spotlight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB seen ‘on hold’ until end of 2021 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC: All eyes on Chair Powell’s press conference – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD prints YTD lows near 1.1015 post-IFO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus crisis accelerates and knocks down risk, focus on German IFO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Central banks back to the fore
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: EUR/USD hits fresh highs as German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI beats estimates with 45.2
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Markets take a break from coronavirus fears, forward-looking data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Lagarde: To think that policy is on auto-pilot is ridiculous
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Higher USD/JPY is still on the cards – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro May Fall as the ECB Stays Cautious Despite Economic Upturn
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus fears spread and weigh on markets, Aussie surges, all eyes on the ECB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Under Dark Clouds as Trump Threatens Auto Tariffs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Stocks in Asia rise, mostly shrug off concerns over coronavirus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOE Preview: Goodbye Carney, hello rate cut? - Nordea
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
President Trump’s speech at WEF in Davos – Live
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed should turn to digital money to combat next recession
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD jumps to session tops, closer to mid-1.3000s on upbeat UK jobs data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Bears now await a break below 1.1065 confluence support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Pound pressured by Brexit plans, oil bumps on Mod-East issues, Bitcoin hungover
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB preview: It’s all about the strategy – ING
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead - BOJ, BOC, and ECB to keep rates on hold as markets focus on global PMI readings and earnings
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Industrial production to retreat again in December – TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
European stocks aim at fresh record on China data and Wall Street’s optimism
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: GBP/USD drops below 1.3100 after UK Retail Sales drop 0.6% MoM in Dec vs. +0.7% expected
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: deeper pullback loses traction
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD prints weekly highs above 1.1160 ahead of ECB, data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Mixed feelings about the trade deal, US retail sales eyed, cryptos consolidate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Futures: further signs of consolidation
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: an interim low seems in place
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Tariffs weigh on markets, pound recovers ahead of data, Bitcoin takes a breather
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Focus remains on the 200-day SMA near 1.1140
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Focus on Fed speak and CPI today – Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trade optimism sends USD/JPY above 110, cryptos climb, US inflation eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – It’s a trade deal!
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
The WAIT Is Over
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOE’s Tenreyro: UK labor market is not tightening further, GBP/USD drops 20-pips
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD stays cautious near 1.1100 ahead of Payrolls
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD pares early gains, turns red near 0.6860
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold drops to fresh weekly lows, around $1540 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Sell-offs in gold, oil and Bitcoin following Mid-East calm, central bankers eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Bulls struggling near 141.20-30 confluence support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold hits fresh multi-month tops, around $1545 region
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Fear grips markets as US kills top Iranian commander, ISM, FOMC awaited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Recovery mode intact on 1.32 after UK Final Dec Manufacturing PMI disappoints with 47.5
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD: Weaker around 0.7000 as USD recovers
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bulls look to test multi-month highs near 1.1240
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
PAMMs Yearly Update
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD struggles to shakes off bearish pressure, trades around 1.3070
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EUR/USD tops 1.12, AUD/USD nears 0.70, as end-of-year dollar pressure set to extend
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead: Market Rally Still Going Low Holiday Volumes Awaiting Start of 2020
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Merry Christmas
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: Weakness in consumer spending continues – RBC
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Gold outshines amid trade deal woes in Christmas Eve markets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bounce still capped below 1.1100 ahead of US data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Pre-Chirstmas quiet trading seeps in alongside US-China trade optimism, US data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asian stocks: Political pessimism weighs over US-China trade progress
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead: Market in Holiday Mode Despite Impeachment and Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Christmas and New Year Trading Schedule
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Supported here?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613