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Forex Week Ahead

Forex_week_ahead_reopening_momentum_FXPIG

Brewing geopolitical risks helped investors take some risk off the table heading into the long weekend.  The dollar rallied against most of its peers as tensions remain front and center for the world’s two largest economies.  Renewed unrest in Hong Kong will continue to weigh on the overall outlook as Western nations contemplate how to react to China’s new national-security laws on Hong Kong.  Investors will also continue to focus on the easing of coronavirus lockdowns globally, signs of rebounding economic activity, and any progress with the treatments or vaccines for COVID-19.  The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress will continue with the focus on how they will achieve their jobless target of 6%.  The upcoming economic data this week will provide incremental updates with the muted recovery.  Earnings will focus on the Canadian banks, several retailers and Japanese manufacturers.

This won’t be your typical summer with falling volumes and a flat or slightly softer stock market.  The fundamental outlook and Presidential election positioning will keep volatility healthy over the summer months.  The Memorial Day to Labor Day trading period is likely to see significant moves early as the next few weeks will provide critical updates to the success of reopening the economy and with medical treatment and vaccine updates.

Country

US

The US economy is showing small improvements with the labor market and business activity, but concerns are growing that optimism will quickly fade if the US-Chinese relationship deteriorates even further.  China’s new law on Hong Kong will likely see US legislation sanction them, likely triggering a tit-for-tat response from Beijing.  Tensions between the world’s two largest economies will remain tense beyond the Presidential election and that could have a lasting impact on the dollar.

Damage to the economy from the coronavirus pandemic continues to ease as the economy reopens, but investors could quickly turn cautious if spikes of new cases turn up with some of the states that were on the earlier side of reopening.

US Politics

Joe Biden’s search for a running mate could be coming to an end. Biden may try to unite the party by picking Senator Elizabeth Warren.  Warren’s pivot on her stance for a government-run “Medicare-for-all” could suggest she is ready to support improvements to Obamacare. The debate also continues in the Senate as many Republicans support calls for additional stimulus.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wants to hit the pause button to assess the situation, but political pressure will grow as too many parts of the country are vulnerable and seeing muted recoveries.

UK

Speculation about negative interest rates in the UK is rife and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey only added fuel to the fire this week by refusing to rule it out, although he didn’t rule it in either. Rather, it’s under review. Given the BoE’s previous stance on negative interest rates, that’s a big change. Some easing is expected in the near future, either in the form of a rate cut, or more QE, which explains why the UK government was able to borrow at a negative interest rate on 3-year debt for the first time ever this week.

Brexit is back in the spotlight a little and contributing to general weakness in the pound. The coronavirus crisis has changed nothing as far as the government is concerned and this week, they released tariff plans starting next year. Whether this is just a big bluff or something more, who knows at this point. But to no-deal Brexit at this point would be suicide. A transition extension is still likely or at worst, a very broad outline of a deal that will be beefed up in the years after Brexit. That may depend on the EU’s willingness to accept the latter, with the crisis arguably giving them a little more leverage.

Turkey

Foreign restrictions on Lira transactions has taken the heat off the currency the last couple of weeks and enabled the central bank to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points this week, as the country fights a war on multiple fronts. The economy was already in a dire straights before it became the country in the middle east with the most recorded coronavirus cases and its currency plunged to record lows. The CBRT has been very aggressive with its rate cuts since its Governor was replaced, in only cutting in line with market expectations, it may be a sign they’re worried about the potential currency impact, given the amount of reserves the country has already burned through to prop it up.

South Africa

The South African Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% this week, in line with expectations, and stated that the implied path of policy rates anticipates two more 25 basis point cuts over the next two quarters.

China

China is facing criticism on multiple fronts and is now changing Hong Kong’s basic law directly, circumventing the HK legislature. Howls of indignation and the threat of US retaliation is real over it is real. US-China trade relations were in trouble already and the heat has now ramped up. Real concern that a new trade war could emerge. Very negative China markets.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong equities slump 6.0% today as China announces intention to write security legislation into basic law, bypassing the HK legislature. This news spells a very real chance that Hong Kong as we know it is over. High probability of renewed street protests. Very negative for HK stock markets as well as China credibility. Big winner, Singapore.

India

India passed emergency rate cuts today and further stimulus from the central bank. Loan payment holiday extended for another three months. Will increase pressure on the non-bank financial sector. Negative for the INR and Indian equities.

Australia

Australia emerging from lockdown, positive. AUD and NZD have rallied strongly on the peak-virus trade but both fell heavily today after the Hong Kong announcement, and increasing trade tensions between China and the US. AUD and Aust. equites extremely vulnerable to further escalations in US-China relations. Approach with caution next week.

Japan

Bank of Japan announced extra stimulus measures today with little market reaction. Japanese markets are highly sensitive to moves in US-China relations and trade fall-out. That will dominate the news next week. An escalation is expected to be negative for equities, but positive for the JPY as a haven currency.

Market

Oil

The oil market is rebalancing, but rising doubts over the outlook for crude demand will likely keep the recent rebound in check.  China’s economic recovery saw crude demand return to near pre-pandemic levels, but the outlook is starting to look worse amid concerns that China’s proposed security law for Hong Kong will further escalate US and China tensions and lead to economic penalties.  If Asia starts to see lower growth prospects, that will continue to weigh on oil prices.

On the supply side, production cut efforts have been surprisingly compliant but that should not last as oil-producing nations will want to make sure they don’t lose market share.  WTI crude will struggle to rally above the $40 level and should start to settle on a wide $25-$35 trading range.

Gold

The gold trade was overcrowded and calls for a bear trap were growing, but China’s decision to impose national-security laws in Hong Kong brought back another challenge facing the world’s second largest economy.  The global economic recovery is very fragile and geopolitical risks and trade tensions will likely keep demand strong for safe-havens.

Gold’s recent bearish catalyst has been the relatively good start to the reopening of the US economy.  With some form of eased restrictions with lockdowns taking place all over the country, investors will remain concerned that the US is vulnerable to several spikes with new cases over the next couple of weeks.  Georgia opened three weeks ago and so far, has not had a significant increase with the rate of new infections as many people continue to stay home.  It seems gold could see support either with a lackluster pickup in economic activity as Americans remain cautious to leave their homes or if a second wave of cases occurs.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin enthusiasts had a bad week after panic hit the markets that someone early to Bitcoin, possibly Satoshi cashed out.  After failing to crack the $10,000 level, it seems prices are starting to pullback.  With the exception that a Satoshi-era miner sold some Bitcoin, the news front has been rather quiet with the crypto space and lack of catalysts are likely to continue to weigh down on Bitcoin.  If risk aversion gains traction, Bitcoin could be one of the first risky assets that gets dumped.  It seems the rally that stemmed from newfound institutional interest is over.

Source: marketpulse

Brewing geopolitical risks helped investors take some risk off the table heading into the long weekend.  The dollar rallied against most of its peers as tensions remain front and center for the world’s two largest economies.  Renewed unrest in Hong Kong will continue to weigh on the overall outlook as Western nations contemplate how to react to China’s new national-security laws on Hong Kong.  Investors will also continue to focus on the easing of coronavirus lockdowns globally, signs of rebounding economic activity, and any progress with the treatments or vaccines for COVID-19.  The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress will continue with the focus on how they will achieve their jobless target of 6%.  The upcoming economic data this week will provide incremental updates with the muted recovery.  Earnings will focus on the Canadian banks, several retailers and Japanese manufacturers.

This won’t be your typical summer with falling volumes and a flat or slightly softer stock market.  The fundamental outlook and Presidential election positioning will keep volatility healthy over the summer months.  The Memorial Day to Labor Day trading period is likely to see significant moves early as the next few weeks will provide critical updates to the success of reopening the economy and with medical treatment and vaccine updates.

Country

US

The US economy is showing small improvements with the labor market and business activity, but concerns are growing that optimism will quickly fade if the US-Chinese relationship deteriorates even further.  China’s new law on Hong Kong will likely see US legislation sanction them, likely triggering a tit-for-tat response from Beijing.  Tensions between the world’s two largest economies will remain tense beyond the Presidential election and that could have a lasting impact on the dollar.

Damage to the economy from the coronavirus pandemic continues to ease as the economy reopens, but investors could quickly turn cautious if spikes of new cases turn up with some of the states that were on the earlier side of reopening.

US Politics

Joe Biden’s search for a running mate could be coming to an end. Biden may try to unite the party by picking Senator Elizabeth Warren.  Warren’s pivot on her stance for a government-run “Medicare-for-all” could suggest she is ready to support improvements to Obamacare. The debate also continues in the Senate as many Republicans support calls for additional stimulus.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wants to hit the pause button to assess the situation, but political pressure will grow as too many parts of the country are vulnerable and seeing muted recoveries.

UK

Speculation about negative interest rates in the UK is rife and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey only added fuel to the fire this week by refusing to rule it out, although he didn’t rule it in either. Rather, it’s under review. Given the BoE’s previous stance on negative interest rates, that’s a big change. Some easing is expected in the near future, either in the form of a rate cut, or more QE, which explains why the UK government was able to borrow at a negative interest rate on 3-year debt for the first time ever this week.

Brexit is back in the spotlight a little and contributing to general weakness in the pound. The coronavirus crisis has changed nothing as far as the government is concerned and this week, they released tariff plans starting next year. Whether this is just a big bluff or something more, who knows at this point. But to no-deal Brexit at this point would be suicide. A transition extension is still likely or at worst, a very broad outline of a deal that will be beefed up in the years after Brexit. That may depend on the EU’s willingness to accept the latter, with the crisis arguably giving them a little more leverage.

Turkey

Foreign restrictions on Lira transactions has taken the heat off the currency the last couple of weeks and enabled the central bank to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points this week, as the country fights a war on multiple fronts. The economy was already in a dire straights before it became the country in the middle east with the most recorded coronavirus cases and its currency plunged to record lows. The CBRT has been very aggressive with its rate cuts since its Governor was replaced, in only cutting in line with market expectations, it may be a sign they’re worried about the potential currency impact, given the amount of reserves the country has already burned through to prop it up.

South Africa

The South African Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% this week, in line with expectations, and stated that the implied path of policy rates anticipates two more 25 basis point cuts over the next two quarters.

China

China is facing criticism on multiple fronts and is now changing Hong Kong’s basic law directly, circumventing the HK legislature. Howls of indignation and the threat of US retaliation is real over it is real. US-China trade relations were in trouble already and the heat has now ramped up. Real concern that a new trade war could emerge. Very negative China markets.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong equities slump 6.0% today as China announces intention to write security legislation into basic law, bypassing the HK legislature. This news spells a very real chance that Hong Kong as we know it is over. High probability of renewed street protests. Very negative for HK stock markets as well as China credibility. Big winner, Singapore.

India

India passed emergency rate cuts today and further stimulus from the central bank. Loan payment holiday extended for another three months. Will increase pressure on the non-bank financial sector. Negative for the INR and Indian equities.

Australia

Australia emerging from lockdown, positive. AUD and NZD have rallied strongly on the peak-virus trade but both fell heavily today after the Hong Kong announcement, and increasing trade tensions between China and the US. AUD and Aust. equites extremely vulnerable to further escalations in US-China relations. Approach with caution next week.

Japan

Bank of Japan announced extra stimulus measures today with little market reaction. Japanese markets are highly sensitive to moves in US-China relations and trade fall-out. That will dominate the news next week. An escalation is expected to be negative for equities, but positive for the JPY as a haven currency.

Market

Oil

The oil market is rebalancing, but rising doubts over the outlook for crude demand will likely keep the recent rebound in check.  China’s economic recovery saw crude demand return to near pre-pandemic levels, but the outlook is starting to look worse amid concerns that China’s proposed security law for Hong Kong will further escalate US and China tensions and lead to economic penalties.  If Asia starts to see lower growth prospects, that will continue to weigh on oil prices.

On the supply side, production cut efforts have been surprisingly compliant but that should not last as oil-producing nations will want to make sure they don’t lose market share.  WTI crude will struggle to rally above the $40 level and should start to settle on a wide $25-$35 trading range.

Gold

The gold trade was overcrowded and calls for a bear trap were growing, but China’s decision to impose national-security laws in Hong Kong brought back another challenge facing the world’s second largest economy.  The global economic recovery is very fragile and geopolitical risks and trade tensions will likely keep demand strong for safe-havens.

Gold’s recent bearish catalyst has been the relatively good start to the reopening of the US economy.  With some form of eased restrictions with lockdowns taking place all over the country, investors will remain concerned that the US is vulnerable to several spikes with new cases over the next couple of weeks.  Georgia opened three weeks ago and so far, has not had a significant increase with the rate of new infections as many people continue to stay home.  It seems gold could see support either with a lackluster pickup in economic activity as Americans remain cautious to leave their homes or if a second wave of cases occurs.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin enthusiasts had a bad week after panic hit the markets that someone early to Bitcoin, possibly Satoshi cashed out.  After failing to crack the $10,000 level, it seems prices are starting to pullback.  With the exception that a Satoshi-era miner sold some Bitcoin, the news front has been rather quiet with the crypto space and lack of catalysts are likely to continue to weigh down on Bitcoin.  If risk aversion gains traction, Bitcoin could be one of the first risky assets that gets dumped.  It seems the rally that stemmed from newfound institutional interest is over.

Source: marketpulse

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Market Analysis
Forex Today: US unrest? Stocks remain restless, extend surge, dollar dives to new lows, top NFP hints eyed
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Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD finds resistance near $1,745, drops toward $1,730
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Market Analysis
Russian oil output falls to 9.39 million bpd in May, close to OPEC+ goal – Interfax
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Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Brexit breakthrough and US demonstrations over George Floyd death to boost the pound
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Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Sino-US Tensions Come to the Fore
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Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: Look neutral near-term
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Market Analysis
Forex Today: Only a correction? Dollar trying to lick its wounds amid Sino-American tensions
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Company News
Archiving Inactive Accounts & Server Boost
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Market Analysis
Trump urges states to open ‘ASAP’ as Dow surges
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Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Battle lines well-defined, can it break higher?
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Market Analysis
Forex Today: Vaccine, Opening optimism overwhelms dollar, Sino-American tensions ignored (for now)
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Market Analysis
EUR/USD: At risk of extending its slide
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Market Analysis
Russia to temporarily ban oil product imports – Interfax
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Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar in demand amid high Sino-American tensions, thin liquidity expected
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Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Reopening Momentum and China in focus
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Market Analysis
BOE’s Ramsden: It is reasonable to have an open mind on negative rates
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Market Analysis
FOMC minutes: Ready to pump in extra stimulus – UOB
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Market Analysis
Oil prices tumble alongside global equities amid fears about China turbulence
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Market Analysis
PBoC keeps extra easing on the table – UOB
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Market Analysis
US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Door open to further retracements
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Market Analysis
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Rally Loses Steam
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Market Analysis
US Crude Oil Stocks Change at -5 million barrels in week ending May 15
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Market Analysis
Gold: Investors continue buying the yellow metal
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Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar decline resumes after breather due to vaccine doubts, Fed remains in focus
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