something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

Gold bulls seeking out a run

Gold-bulls-seeking-out-a-run_Forex_FXPI
  • Spot gold has bounced off trend line support and is at 10-month highs.
  • Gold looks set on strong overhead resistance up at $1,360/75/oz.
  • DXY on the way down after charting a key day reversal on Friday and extending losses on Tuesday as North American traders join the party.

Gold, as a safe haven asset, (the other currency), has been raising the market's eyebrows of late and its rally is somewhat concerning, and not just to the bears. Often, when the price of gold rallies, it is a sign that markets are on alert, fearing the worst. We have global banks downshifting gears, from the Fed to the ECB and the RBA all showing their concerns for domestic and global growth. All of their concerns have one thing in common and that is China.

The world's second-largest economy's growth is expected to slow to 6.3 percent this year, which would be the weakest in 29 years, from an expected 6.6 percent in 2018, according to a median forecast of 85 economists Reuters recently polled. There has been an underbelly of bearishness brewing for some months, and when the Fed suddenly flagged such concerns and switch to neutral, gold started to perk up, extending the upside recovery from its late summer 2018 lows down at $1,160oz.

Sino and US trade wars were an additional factor that had been supporting safe haven assets, including the greenback, but now that there is growing optimism over talks that have been taking place between key officials on both sides of the Pacific, the dollar is falling yet gold keeps rising which could be a fundamental shift taking place and a potential buy the rumour sell the fact play in the stock markets - This week should offer more updates on how those talks are going as Beijing delegates meet with US officials in Washington to iron something more concrete out - Many analysts are expecting an extension of Trump's tariff deadline that is due to kick in at the start of next month,  a sure positive to risk for the near term at least.

For the meanwhile, traders will also pay close attention to this week's FOMC minutes that will help provide additional context to the Fed's recent dovishness.

"At the same time, the yellow metal could be set to receive substantial CTA buying, as prices remain anchored to key trigger levels that would imply massive length,"

analysts at TD Securities argued.

DXY on the way down

US Dollar Index charted a key day reversal on Friday coupled with a divergence of the daily RSI. If the dollar continues to slide, then the only way is up for the precious metal. In the DXY, the 200-day ma at 95.50 is a key level to watch for on the downside.

Gold levels

Analysts at Commerzbank explained that the gold market has eroded the 1326.17 May high and in doing so has broken into 10-month highs:

"We continue to target the 2015-2019 resistance line at 1360. The bull flag offers an additional target of 1396.33. Provided that the market holds over 1276.56, the early January low, immediate upside pressure will be preserved. Initial support is the accelerated uptrend at 1305. Support at 1276.56 guards 1246.17 the 200-day moving average. Here we would expect to see the market stabilise and recover if reached at all."
"A fall below the 1243.55 October 2018 peak would target the 1180.84 September low and would put the 1160.24 August low on the cards,"

the analysts wrote to the contrary.

Source: fxstreet

  • Spot gold has bounced off trend line support and is at 10-month highs.
  • Gold looks set on strong overhead resistance up at $1,360/75/oz.
  • DXY on the way down after charting a key day reversal on Friday and extending losses on Tuesday as North American traders join the party.

Gold, as a safe haven asset, (the other currency), has been raising the market's eyebrows of late and its rally is somewhat concerning, and not just to the bears. Often, when the price of gold rallies, it is a sign that markets are on alert, fearing the worst. We have global banks downshifting gears, from the Fed to the ECB and the RBA all showing their concerns for domestic and global growth. All of their concerns have one thing in common and that is China.

The world's second-largest economy's growth is expected to slow to 6.3 percent this year, which would be the weakest in 29 years, from an expected 6.6 percent in 2018, according to a median forecast of 85 economists Reuters recently polled. There has been an underbelly of bearishness brewing for some months, and when the Fed suddenly flagged such concerns and switch to neutral, gold started to perk up, extending the upside recovery from its late summer 2018 lows down at $1,160oz.

Sino and US trade wars were an additional factor that had been supporting safe haven assets, including the greenback, but now that there is growing optimism over talks that have been taking place between key officials on both sides of the Pacific, the dollar is falling yet gold keeps rising which could be a fundamental shift taking place and a potential buy the rumour sell the fact play in the stock markets - This week should offer more updates on how those talks are going as Beijing delegates meet with US officials in Washington to iron something more concrete out - Many analysts are expecting an extension of Trump's tariff deadline that is due to kick in at the start of next month,  a sure positive to risk for the near term at least.

For the meanwhile, traders will also pay close attention to this week's FOMC minutes that will help provide additional context to the Fed's recent dovishness.

"At the same time, the yellow metal could be set to receive substantial CTA buying, as prices remain anchored to key trigger levels that would imply massive length,"

analysts at TD Securities argued.

DXY on the way down

US Dollar Index charted a key day reversal on Friday coupled with a divergence of the daily RSI. If the dollar continues to slide, then the only way is up for the precious metal. In the DXY, the 200-day ma at 95.50 is a key level to watch for on the downside.

Gold levels

Analysts at Commerzbank explained that the gold market has eroded the 1326.17 May high and in doing so has broken into 10-month highs:

"We continue to target the 2015-2019 resistance line at 1360. The bull flag offers an additional target of 1396.33. Provided that the market holds over 1276.56, the early January low, immediate upside pressure will be preserved. Initial support is the accelerated uptrend at 1305. Support at 1276.56 guards 1246.17 the 200-day moving average. Here we would expect to see the market stabilise and recover if reached at all."
"A fall below the 1243.55 October 2018 peak would target the 1180.84 September low and would put the 1160.24 August low on the cards,"

the analysts wrote to the contrary.

Source: fxstreet

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
UK’s Raab: EU claiming no detailed plans put forward is a diplomatic pressure exercise
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD climbs back closer to multi-week tops, comfortable above mid-0.6800s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil surges, how will EMs react? - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead- Central banks the only game in town
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
JPY Futures: further downside on the cards
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD further upside not ruled out – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Hopes for a small trade deal boosts mood, EUR/USD digests ECB whipsaw, US consumer in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB press conference - September 12: Draghi speech live stream
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: ECB slashes rates by only 0.1% but announces QE, EUR/USD leaps, then crashes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Buckle Up, Get Set ...and GO!
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold trades with modest gains around $1490 level, lacks follow-through
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Germany’s Merkel: We still have every chance of orderly Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk tone improves on trade progress, focus shifts to ECB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: A test of the 1.1080 region looks unlikely near term
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY consolidates recent gains to over 1-month tops, holds above 132.00 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Rising odds for extra gains near term
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Retreats After Jobs Miss and Higher Risk Appetite
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: The near-term constructive view stays intact above 97.96
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Recovery stays firm. Next target at the 55-day SMA at 119.78
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold adds to Thursday’s steep decline, hits fresh 2-week lows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR Futures: scope for extra gains near term
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB Pres. Nominee Lagarde: ECB need not be guided by markets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY climbs further beyond 129.00 handle, fresh weekly tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
GBP Pairs Margin Requirement Change
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Poised to encounter the August low
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD should continue to find buyers on dips under 0.6700 – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Further selling should see 1.0839 re-tested in the near term. Rebound not ruled out on ‘oversold’ condition
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD could drop further and test 1.0930 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: further downside not ruled out
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY down move over?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – New Tariffs Begin on China as RBA, BOC, Riksbank and CBR have rate decisions
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
China Steals Fed’s Thunder With New Round of Tariffs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD once again finds support near 1.2100 mark, turns neutral post-UK services PMI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: The outlook remains bearish while below the 55-day SMA near 1.1230
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: China strikes back with yuan devaluation, yen surges, commodity currencies crash
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Focus shifts east
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Fed-fueled dollar dominates, GBP/USD fears BOE's Super Thursday, and more NFP hints eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY sits near 2-month tops, comfortably above 109.00 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE and global PMIs amongst market movers today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY: a test of 109.00 stays on the table
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed: Market currently fully pricing a 25bps cut – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD -31.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold holds steady near $1425 area, focus remains on FOMC/US-China trade talks
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoJ: No fireworks offered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY - 30.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP climbs to 2-week highs around 0.9020
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoJ to move towards strengthening its forward guidance
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD -29.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Looks neutral near term. A drop below 1.1100 cannot be ruled out
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK: Tough electoral rhetoric on Brexit - Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed: Scope for disappointment
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Holding on above 1.1100 ahead of the ECB event
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold steadily climbs to session tops, back closer to $1430 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB and German IFO amongst market movers today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold steadily climbs to session tops, around $1425 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP: Strength to be faded as we get closer to general election - ING
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD drops to 2-month lows near 1.1120 on poor PMIs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Extra gains could now test 97.60 ahead of 97.80
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 23.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Talk of 'Hidden' Iranian barrels, demand worries preventing jump higher - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD refreshes session lows, back below 1.2500 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 22.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Upside remains capped by the 21-day SMA around 1.1280
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar mixed and Stocks Fall as markets brace for more global easing
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP: Guided by the UK politics
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY: Back under pressure
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 18.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold technical analysis: Bears challenge a key pivotal support near $1400 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 17.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY recovers from lows, back around 121.40
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: Housing data in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 15.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR: ECB-related uncertainty lingers
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Higher as Dollar Faced Fed Cut Pressure
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD: Less of a safe haven now - ING
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 12.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOE’s Vlieghe: BOE may need to raise rates if inflation expectations are deanchored by a no-deal Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold technical analysis: Set-up remains in favour of bullish traders, dip-buying to help the downside
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - 11.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bank Of England Sees Significant Market Volatility In Disorderly Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold steadily climbs to session tops, farther beyond $1400 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 08.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: USD looking strong, Turkish lira plunges, new trade tensions arise
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
King Dollar’s reign could end on Powell’s testimony and trade war progress
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD at the crossroads - ING
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Prices likely to rebound this year – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Payrolls likely to increase 150k in June - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA: More rate cuts to come? - Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Lane: No comments on monetary policy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slips back closer to overnight swing low, below $1415 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Further downside should test the 100-day SMA at 1.1259
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA delivers consecutive cuts - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 02.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Rises on Rate Divergence With Fed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
G20 meeting: Trump and Xi meeting in focus - Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY: Market stays immediately offered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD struggles below 1.3100 handle, fresh multi-month lows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold climbs to weekly tops, around $1338 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 13.06.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613