something interesting

<  BACK TO Mr. Markets

How was it for you?

FOREX_Mr-Markets_How-was-it-for-you_FXPIG

Forget Interest rates, the market returned to “normal”

Well, that was an interesting week. The effect of jawboning was finally appreciated as Central Banks finally got the hang of the fact that words, in a lot of cases, speak louder than deeds.

The Bank of England gave us what can only be described as a genius version of the art of deception. The market believed there for a minute that they were planning to hike rates, possibly twice, before August. The futures markets took the bait attaching a 60% chance to a hike in May and 100% for August.  

There are only so many times rates can be hiked before businesses stop investing and a slowdown starts but there are almost infinite opportunities for Heads of Central Banks or their colleagues to make little supportive comments for their underlying position. In the UK there us a clear concern about inflation which is well above the Government’s target and showing very little sign of abating.

There is a yawning negative gap between incomes and prices which is also a concern. The wages part is being influenced by a lack of investment by businesses due to the uncertainty created by Brexit. The excuse for high inflation is now starting to wear a little thin. The pound dropped like a stone following the Brexit referendum result but has retraced around 60% from its low, producer prices have fallen back in line, but consumer prices haven’t. Go Figure!

Don’t try this at home

I restarted an old trading account this week and took a few positions based on a theory I read about recently and some comments that were made to me at a conference that I attended where I was told I was wasting my experience.

The theory was that someone who has been around the market as long as I have should be able to look at price movement, study the price action and know, virtually instinctively, when to get in and out.

I must admit it felt like facing an armoured unit with a bow and arrow, but I gave it a try this week. The longer it went on, the better it felt. I applied money and risk management rules but quickly found that I was stopping myself out for the wrong reason, I dropped the position size a bit and that did the trick.

It was the Carney news conference that really got the juices flowing. I had been short of cable into the BoE decision as that instinctively looked right to me and the position was showing a profit, but I felt that it had a bit more juice in it. As Carney spoke a rally took place but I held firm as my profit turned to a loss not seeing anything to change my mind. After he stopped talking it seemed that traders also felt the rally was overdone and the market returned to my previous level it went another fifty pips and I cashed out.

No Charts, no signals, no EA’s or robots just gut and instinct. The Davy Crockett of the FX Market!

It may be the way for me to trade but it is so intense both mentally and in consumption of time that I will put my trading trousers away again until the itch needs to be scratched again,

Meanwhile in Cryptoland

There used to be this cryptocurrency, I believe it was called Bitcoin. All you could read about online was Bitcoin this and Bitcoin that. Then the market stabilized, and people started to see it for what it was, a means of transfer of value without regulation that as it matured would become more efficient, quicker to transact in and cheaper to deliver.  

A week is a long time in Cryptoland, and we have now reached the point where those who bought Bitcoin at $10k+ are licking their wounds, those who bought it to make an inordinate profit are very happy, nervous or “gutted” and those who see the whole financial revolution as being in a nascent state continue to make progress in their journey.

What is the true value of a Bitcoin? No one knows, but at least we don’t have Central Bankers trying to convince us of something that clearly isn’t true. No interest rate differential, no monetary policy considerations and no central bank intervention. Long live Crypto!

Forget Interest rates, the market returned to “normal”

Well, that was an interesting week. The effect of jawboning was finally appreciated as Central Banks finally got the hang of the fact that words, in a lot of cases, speak louder than deeds.

The Bank of England gave us what can only be described as a genius version of the art of deception. The market believed there for a minute that they were planning to hike rates, possibly twice, before August. The futures markets took the bait attaching a 60% chance to a hike in May and 100% for August.  

There are only so many times rates can be hiked before businesses stop investing and a slowdown starts but there are almost infinite opportunities for Heads of Central Banks or their colleagues to make little supportive comments for their underlying position. In the UK there us a clear concern about inflation which is well above the Government’s target and showing very little sign of abating.

There is a yawning negative gap between incomes and prices which is also a concern. The wages part is being influenced by a lack of investment by businesses due to the uncertainty created by Brexit. The excuse for high inflation is now starting to wear a little thin. The pound dropped like a stone following the Brexit referendum result but has retraced around 60% from its low, producer prices have fallen back in line, but consumer prices haven’t. Go Figure!

Don’t try this at home

I restarted an old trading account this week and took a few positions based on a theory I read about recently and some comments that were made to me at a conference that I attended where I was told I was wasting my experience.

The theory was that someone who has been around the market as long as I have should be able to look at price movement, study the price action and know, virtually instinctively, when to get in and out.

I must admit it felt like facing an armoured unit with a bow and arrow, but I gave it a try this week. The longer it went on, the better it felt. I applied money and risk management rules but quickly found that I was stopping myself out for the wrong reason, I dropped the position size a bit and that did the trick.

It was the Carney news conference that really got the juices flowing. I had been short of cable into the BoE decision as that instinctively looked right to me and the position was showing a profit, but I felt that it had a bit more juice in it. As Carney spoke a rally took place but I held firm as my profit turned to a loss not seeing anything to change my mind. After he stopped talking it seemed that traders also felt the rally was overdone and the market returned to my previous level it went another fifty pips and I cashed out.

No Charts, no signals, no EA’s or robots just gut and instinct. The Davy Crockett of the FX Market!

It may be the way for me to trade but it is so intense both mentally and in consumption of time that I will put my trading trousers away again until the itch needs to be scratched again,

Meanwhile in Cryptoland

There used to be this cryptocurrency, I believe it was called Bitcoin. All you could read about online was Bitcoin this and Bitcoin that. Then the market stabilized, and people started to see it for what it was, a means of transfer of value without regulation that as it matured would become more efficient, quicker to transact in and cheaper to deliver.  

A week is a long time in Cryptoland, and we have now reached the point where those who bought Bitcoin at $10k+ are licking their wounds, those who bought it to make an inordinate profit are very happy, nervous or “gutted” and those who see the whole financial revolution as being in a nascent state continue to make progress in their journey.

What is the true value of a Bitcoin? No one knows, but at least we don’t have Central Bankers trying to convince us of something that clearly isn’t true. No interest rate differential, no monetary policy considerations and no central bank intervention. Long live Crypto!

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Big Earnings, Rate Decisions and US GDP once markets return from holiday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD inches higher to 0.7160, but lacks follow-through
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY frozen near 111.90 ahead of US housing data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen ignores BOJ operation, Good Friday quiet trading to extend
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD consolidates the slide near 1.1250, US retail sales eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY-18.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Easter Trading Schedule
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD is holding steady
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Recovery towards 1.3100 on its way ahead of UK CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FX Today: Antipodeans rescued by strong China data; focus on UK/ Eurozone CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB said not to have discusses further deposit rate cuts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Aussie trips on dovish RBA minutes; eyes on UK wages, German ZEW
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -16.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR shorts increased, GBP shorts trimmed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results- April, week 15
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Softens Awaiting US Retail Sales
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD steadily climbs to session tops, aims to reclaim 1.3100 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP continues to consolidate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -12.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: Press conference is an opportunity to inject confidence into the economy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD continues to show signs of recovery
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -10.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 09.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Upside remains capped near 1.3070 amid Brexit stalemate
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD to remain steady around the ECB meeting – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Rises on Strong US Jobs Data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold waits for US employment data near $1290
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB unlikely to provide much in terms of steps forward
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD probing daily highs near 1.1230 ahead of NFP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD: RBA and politics to keep a lid
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 04.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD upside still capped by 1.1250, ECB eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 03.04.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay opens the door to a second referendum, GBP/USD holds high ground
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD rebounds to 1.1250 amid positive German yields, weaker USD
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit amongst key market moving events today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
April optimism could be key turning point for global growth
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP breaks below the 100-day SMA to fresh lows near 0.8550
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Set-up remains in favor of bearish traders ahead of UK macro data/Brexit vote
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 29.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK PM May's spokesman: Guaranteed way of leaving on May 22 is to win MV3 on Friday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY finds support near 110, rebounds modestly ahead of US GDP data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 28.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD clings to gains near session tops, comfortable above 0.7100 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 110.00 handle, but lacks follow-through
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 25.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Recovers Fed Driven Losses on Safe-haven Flows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Draghi: International trade is main reason for slowdown
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE: No surprises here – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold climbs to session tops, further beyond $1310 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold loses momentum, edges lower toward $1300
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOJ’s Kuroda: “We will mull more easing if price momentum is lost"
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC Preview: What 17 major banks are expecting from March meeting?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 19.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: 18.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed is likely to signal just one more rate hike – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -18.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD fades a knee-jerk bullish spike to levels beyond 1.3300 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD: RBA market pricing absorbed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: USD bounces alongside T-yields in Asia; UK politics/ Brexit in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD remains bid and flirts with 1.1300, looks to Brexit, data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 13.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold adds to gains beyond $1300 mark, hits 1-1/2 week tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR: Shorts restrained
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY-12.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit and US CPI amongst market movers today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -11.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD struggles to gain positive traction, but holds above 1.3400 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bounce is likely - Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Pound Fails to Capitalize on Dollar Stumble Ahead of Brexit Votes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold clings to recovery gains above $1290
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: All focus on TLTRO announcement
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Focus on Fed speak and trade data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 06.03.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoC: Policy rate likely to remain unchanged - Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD slides back closer to session lows, focus shifts to Carney's testimony
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold consolidates in a range, hangs near 6-week lows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Antipodeans slip on China woes; Eurozone/ UK services PMI eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD: Prohibitive?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD drops to session low, bulls struggling to defend 1.3200 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk-on amid US-China trade optimism; UK construction PMI – Up next
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Global growth hinges on China’s Big Week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Technical Analysis: Bears await a sustained break below 1-month old trend-line support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: The cross now targets the key 200-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen weakest in Asia risk-on; focus on UK PMI, Eurozone CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold bears looking for a break of the $1,300/oz level to 38.2% Fibo target
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD turns flat below 1.14 as DXY clings to gains above 96
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 28.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Prices stabilising
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit to remain in focus this week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold edges lower to $1325 level, focus remains on Powell’s testimony
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD within a tight range near 1.1350, focus on Powell
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold drops below $1330 as USD recovers modestly
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY challenges 2-day highs near 125.80
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 25.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Higher on Stronger Oil and Softer Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD eases from tops beyond 1.1350 post-IFO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 22.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613