something interesting

<  BACK TO Mr. Markets

How was it for you?

FOREX_Mr-Markets_How-was-it-for-you_FXPIG

Forget Interest rates, the market returned to “normal”

Well, that was an interesting week. The effect of jawboning was finally appreciated as Central Banks finally got the hang of the fact that words, in a lot of cases, speak louder than deeds.

The Bank of England gave us what can only be described as a genius version of the art of deception. The market believed there for a minute that they were planning to hike rates, possibly twice, before August. The futures markets took the bait attaching a 60% chance to a hike in May and 100% for August.  

There are only so many times rates can be hiked before businesses stop investing and a slowdown starts but there are almost infinite opportunities for Heads of Central Banks or their colleagues to make little supportive comments for their underlying position. In the UK there us a clear concern about inflation which is well above the Government’s target and showing very little sign of abating.

There is a yawning negative gap between incomes and prices which is also a concern. The wages part is being influenced by a lack of investment by businesses due to the uncertainty created by Brexit. The excuse for high inflation is now starting to wear a little thin. The pound dropped like a stone following the Brexit referendum result but has retraced around 60% from its low, producer prices have fallen back in line, but consumer prices haven’t. Go Figure!

Don’t try this at home

I restarted an old trading account this week and took a few positions based on a theory I read about recently and some comments that were made to me at a conference that I attended where I was told I was wasting my experience.

The theory was that someone who has been around the market as long as I have should be able to look at price movement, study the price action and know, virtually instinctively, when to get in and out.

I must admit it felt like facing an armoured unit with a bow and arrow, but I gave it a try this week. The longer it went on, the better it felt. I applied money and risk management rules but quickly found that I was stopping myself out for the wrong reason, I dropped the position size a bit and that did the trick.

It was the Carney news conference that really got the juices flowing. I had been short of cable into the BoE decision as that instinctively looked right to me and the position was showing a profit, but I felt that it had a bit more juice in it. As Carney spoke a rally took place but I held firm as my profit turned to a loss not seeing anything to change my mind. After he stopped talking it seemed that traders also felt the rally was overdone and the market returned to my previous level it went another fifty pips and I cashed out.

No Charts, no signals, no EA’s or robots just gut and instinct. The Davy Crockett of the FX Market!

It may be the way for me to trade but it is so intense both mentally and in consumption of time that I will put my trading trousers away again until the itch needs to be scratched again,

Meanwhile in Cryptoland

There used to be this cryptocurrency, I believe it was called Bitcoin. All you could read about online was Bitcoin this and Bitcoin that. Then the market stabilized, and people started to see it for what it was, a means of transfer of value without regulation that as it matured would become more efficient, quicker to transact in and cheaper to deliver.  

A week is a long time in Cryptoland, and we have now reached the point where those who bought Bitcoin at $10k+ are licking their wounds, those who bought it to make an inordinate profit are very happy, nervous or “gutted” and those who see the whole financial revolution as being in a nascent state continue to make progress in their journey.

What is the true value of a Bitcoin? No one knows, but at least we don’t have Central Bankers trying to convince us of something that clearly isn’t true. No interest rate differential, no monetary policy considerations and no central bank intervention. Long live Crypto!

Forget Interest rates, the market returned to “normal”

Well, that was an interesting week. The effect of jawboning was finally appreciated as Central Banks finally got the hang of the fact that words, in a lot of cases, speak louder than deeds.

The Bank of England gave us what can only be described as a genius version of the art of deception. The market believed there for a minute that they were planning to hike rates, possibly twice, before August. The futures markets took the bait attaching a 60% chance to a hike in May and 100% for August.  

There are only so many times rates can be hiked before businesses stop investing and a slowdown starts but there are almost infinite opportunities for Heads of Central Banks or their colleagues to make little supportive comments for their underlying position. In the UK there us a clear concern about inflation which is well above the Government’s target and showing very little sign of abating.

There is a yawning negative gap between incomes and prices which is also a concern. The wages part is being influenced by a lack of investment by businesses due to the uncertainty created by Brexit. The excuse for high inflation is now starting to wear a little thin. The pound dropped like a stone following the Brexit referendum result but has retraced around 60% from its low, producer prices have fallen back in line, but consumer prices haven’t. Go Figure!

Don’t try this at home

I restarted an old trading account this week and took a few positions based on a theory I read about recently and some comments that were made to me at a conference that I attended where I was told I was wasting my experience.

The theory was that someone who has been around the market as long as I have should be able to look at price movement, study the price action and know, virtually instinctively, when to get in and out.

I must admit it felt like facing an armoured unit with a bow and arrow, but I gave it a try this week. The longer it went on, the better it felt. I applied money and risk management rules but quickly found that I was stopping myself out for the wrong reason, I dropped the position size a bit and that did the trick.

It was the Carney news conference that really got the juices flowing. I had been short of cable into the BoE decision as that instinctively looked right to me and the position was showing a profit, but I felt that it had a bit more juice in it. As Carney spoke a rally took place but I held firm as my profit turned to a loss not seeing anything to change my mind. After he stopped talking it seemed that traders also felt the rally was overdone and the market returned to my previous level it went another fifty pips and I cashed out.

No Charts, no signals, no EA’s or robots just gut and instinct. The Davy Crockett of the FX Market!

It may be the way for me to trade but it is so intense both mentally and in consumption of time that I will put my trading trousers away again until the itch needs to be scratched again,

Meanwhile in Cryptoland

There used to be this cryptocurrency, I believe it was called Bitcoin. All you could read about online was Bitcoin this and Bitcoin that. Then the market stabilized, and people started to see it for what it was, a means of transfer of value without regulation that as it matured would become more efficient, quicker to transact in and cheaper to deliver.  

A week is a long time in Cryptoland, and we have now reached the point where those who bought Bitcoin at $10k+ are licking their wounds, those who bought it to make an inordinate profit are very happy, nervous or “gutted” and those who see the whole financial revolution as being in a nascent state continue to make progress in their journey.

What is the true value of a Bitcoin? No one knows, but at least we don’t have Central Bankers trying to convince us of something that clearly isn’t true. No interest rate differential, no monetary policy considerations and no central bank intervention. Long live Crypto!

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – The final stretch
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed Preview: The dollar has room to rise on upbeat projections and the lack of stimulus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD battles 200-SMA on 4H chart, US stimulus, Fed eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Vaccine, Dollar depressed on vaccine, Brexit and US stimulus hopes, Fed in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: Manufacturing Sales rise by 0.3% to $54.1 billion in October
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD jumps to fresh session tops, further beyond mid-1.3300s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Gold recovers on US stimulus hopes, dollar off the highs, Brexit, vaccine news eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD trims gains and drops toward 1.2120
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Last full week of 2020 kicks off with Brexit and US stimulus optimism
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Deal or no deal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: ECB gives a boost to the euro, rally to run towards 2020 high at 1.2177
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Lagarde speech: Euro area economy is seen shrinking in Q4
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dual talks' deadlock weighs on markets ahead of expected ECB stimulus, FDA vaccine seal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Vaccine deployments, Brexit continue to rule the sentiment
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Rising Sino-American tensions curb vaccine and stimulus enthusiasm, Brexit eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Time for compromise
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar bounces amid vaccine, stimulus concerns ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Another dollar’s disappointment underway
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD jumps to three-month tops, around 1.3440 region
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar remains on the back foot as two hopes clash with two concerns, data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Further decline targets 90.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD’s rebound stalls below $1800 ahead of US data, Powell
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: New month, fresh market gains, PMIs, Powell's testimony and Brexit eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Lagarde: Fiscal package must not be delayed significantly
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Fakeout at 1.20? Why the euro may suffer a downward correction
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Gold melts, dollar declines, Brexit and OPEC headlines eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – We Go Again
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Five reasons to drag the pair down
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bearish sign
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
S&P: Major Aussie banks not at risk of downgrade amid pandemic
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: New quarter, same market gloom as coronavirus spreads, critical US data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar Index: 2008/09 parallels point to sustained USD strength – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude prices rebound after tapping 18-year low
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD needs to hold onto support at 1.0972 to weather the dollar storm
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Bearish pressure eased
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: King Dollar takes back the reins as coronavirus fears mount, oil slumps; eyes on German CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Virus Watch, China data to rebound while the world braces for pain, and why the dollar looks so vulnerable
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Will King Dollar be re-coronated after the plunge? Virus, consumer data, eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Steady Despite Increased Coronavirus Stimulus Hopes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dumping extends, US coronavirus cases top China’s; US House vote eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Watching if bulls are able to capitalize the momentum
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Pares Gains As Nervous Market Looks To US Jobless Claims
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EUR, JPY in the lead after Senate's stamp, ahead of horrible US jobless claims, BOE
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: The picture is improving
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Futures: Upside looks capped
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Senate strikes stimulus, stocks may sell the fact, dollar pressured, coronavirus data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
S&P 500 futures jump 5% and hit the limit-up band of 2,333.50
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD bulls looking to extend the momentum beyond 1.1700 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD firmer above 1.0800 post-PMIs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: 35-year uptrend breached – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: New week, same corona carnage, dollar down vs. majors, excels elsewhere, US Senate eye
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Tougher times ahead?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold rallies further beyond $1500 mark, fresh session tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s stimulus package: Lagarde’s “Whatever it Takes” moment – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar takes a breather, coronavirus claims 10,000 lives, “quadruple witching” eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: BoC to keep the system running – RBC Economics
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Several OPEC members calling for new action – ANZ
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro at Risk Ahead of German IFO Data and SNB Rate Decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: Still scope for a rebound… but when?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slides further below $1500 mark, losing around 2.5% for the day
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Base metals: Sign of weakening demand emerging – ANZ
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Typical dead cat bounce ove
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Prices Slide Again As Coronavirus Prompts Cash Raising
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominant as markets bounce after Trump's recession talk, focus on fiscal stimulus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoJ Governor Kuroda: Possible to deepen negative interest rates further
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Faced rejection near the 1.1200 round-figure mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Fed and BOJ to add more to the punchbowl, Virus disruption, and a fourth week of heightened volatility
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Fed to cut 100bps at its next meeting – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: EUR/USD heading lower as looks for fiscal measures – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: Wave of selling also hit the yellow metal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold surrenders early gains, back near $1640 level despite coronavirus-led jitters
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trump fails to reassure coronavirus-concerned America, stocks down, gold up, ECB eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Analysis Ahead of ECB Rate Decision and Lagarde Outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Pullback Fizzles Amid Speculation for More Fed Rate Cuts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: GBP/USD tumbles as BOE surprises with 50bp cut to 0.25% ahead of UK budget
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Yen rallies hard as US stimulus doubts, coronavirus fears hit stocks, USD and yields
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD resuming rise amid doubts over US fiscal stimulus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominates after the coronavirus crash amid Trump's tax promises, Chinese hopes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Global shares plunge in worst day since financial crisis
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Monday mayhem, wild currency moves, Gold fakeout, oil -30%, amid coronavirus panic
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil Prices Crash 25% As Oil War Begins
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Time to Spring Forward
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week ahead – Market volatility here to stay
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
The Fed could cut rates further at the March meeting – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold remains confined in a range, around $1640
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD flirting with daily highs around 1.1140
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro Rally May Just Be Getting Started vs US Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Pres. Trump: Fed should ease and “cut rate big”
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE's Tenreyro: Important to highlight that we were not in a rush to raise interest rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Coronavirus update: First confirmed case in London, total infections in Iran at 1,501
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Upside stalled just ahead of the 200-day SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Central Banks, OPEC + and Governments prepare to cushion the coronavirus impact
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Markets not focused on Super Tuesday
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Vasiliauskas says extraordinary meeting may be called over coronavirus, EUR/USD off the highs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Markets in freefall: Carney warns UK faces downgrade over coronavirus – latest updates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Schnabel: Coronavirus increased uncertainty about global growth outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD now looks to 1.0925 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold clings to gains near session tops, around $1650 region
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus clobbers markets, dollar on the defensive (for now), Bitcoin battered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Outlook Somber as COVID-19 Threatens EU Corporate Debt
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613