something interesting

<  BACK TO Mr. Markets

Is it really that complicated?

FOREX_Mystery-solved_Mr-Markets_FXPIG
Algo’s, Robots and AI add to “Quant fever”

I was leafing through social media this week and came across one of those Three equals forty-five etc. puzzles that we all now know the answer to. It is an observation test not a test of mathematical ability.

I came across the reply below from, you’ve guessed it, a quantitative analyst, who was so proud of his answer that he was moved to show us how he reached is conclusion which was very amusingly wrong. When I asked him about whether he felt he was overthinking the problem, he told me, in about five hundred words, that in fact he wasn’t wrong and anyway the fact that he provided his calculations more than compensated.

15+15+15=45     [Since each design value is 15 = 6(hexa) + 5 (penta) + 4 (quad)]

4+ 4+15=23 [Since 4 bananas value is 4]

4+3+3=10    [Since each clock value is 3]

3+3+(3*11) =39   [Since 3 bananas value is 3, clock value remains same irrespective of time (i.e. 3), design value is 11 = 6(hexa) + 5 (penta)]

It struck a chord with me in relation to the FX market. Yes, of course the speed at which technology is advancing means that eventually traders won’t be able to keep up in a short-term market but a quote I heard recently also resonates. “I know where to look for information an algo needs to be told. How would a robot be able to figure out the effect of a 7.9 earthquake off Madagascar on the price of Brazilian coffee?  A bit convoluted but you get my point.

It is only complicated if we make it so

Very few independent traders are lucky enough to be able to trade as a full-time profession so why do we do it?

Personally, I trade to help me with my “day job”. I find that I retain levels in my head far better if I have some financial commitment. But there needs to be an emotional connection to be a good trader. That cannot be replicated yet by artificial intelligence, but I imagine one day it will.

As with any technological advance, it is easy to become a slave to it, rather than allow it to enhance the experience. As we become more ingrained in or own trading strategy and mentality, we should always question the what our “bots” suggest since we have access to the wider picture. At a forum I attended recently, I asked the question of a few traders “do you always put trades on when you get a signal without consideration”. I was amazed to find that more than 70% said they do. When challenged about market context the answer was generally “nothing matters except the technicals 100% of the cases I simply shrugged and moved on.

Since the mid-1600’s, when trading in shares first started the best mathematical minds have been trying (and failing) to be able to second guess mathematically the market and its participants mindset. Until traders relinquish a hold on the market and AI becomes an absolute reality able to, not only replicate but, improve upon the best trader’s mindset and methods, a three sixty-degree strategy will still prove to be the most effective.

Bitcoin rally brings usual overreaction

Bitcoin moved closer to the $8k handle this week and its fans were figuratively out on the street waving banners telling us it was “going to the moon. It is always difficult if not impossible to get a handle on the volume and value of trades going through that create this move.

There are four classic reasons for currency appreciation (or depreciation); technical, fundamental, supply and demand and sentimental.  Since the first two don’t really apply, it is the latter two that are behind the currency rally.

Bitcoin is still 44% lower on the year, and despite my feelings to the contrary on the markets ability to track it technically, remains in a downtrend.

It still seems that for every “going to the moon” voice there is another saying, “at this level it is about $8k overvalued”. That is supposed to be the beauty of a market that there are as many potential buyers as sellers, but it is being driven by those not prepared to put their money where their mouth is but encourage others to take on the risk while earning an introducing Brokers commission.  

Algo’s, Robots and AI add to “Quant fever”

I was leafing through social media this week and came across one of those Three equals forty-five etc. puzzles that we all now know the answer to. It is an observation test not a test of mathematical ability.

I came across the reply below from, you’ve guessed it, a quantitative analyst, who was so proud of his answer that he was moved to show us how he reached is conclusion which was very amusingly wrong. When I asked him about whether he felt he was overthinking the problem, he told me, in about five hundred words, that in fact he wasn’t wrong and anyway the fact that he provided his calculations more than compensated.

15+15+15=45     [Since each design value is 15 = 6(hexa) + 5 (penta) + 4 (quad)]

4+ 4+15=23 [Since 4 bananas value is 4]

4+3+3=10    [Since each clock value is 3]

3+3+(3*11) =39   [Since 3 bananas value is 3, clock value remains same irrespective of time (i.e. 3), design value is 11 = 6(hexa) + 5 (penta)]

It struck a chord with me in relation to the FX market. Yes, of course the speed at which technology is advancing means that eventually traders won’t be able to keep up in a short-term market but a quote I heard recently also resonates. “I know where to look for information an algo needs to be told. How would a robot be able to figure out the effect of a 7.9 earthquake off Madagascar on the price of Brazilian coffee?  A bit convoluted but you get my point.

It is only complicated if we make it so

Very few independent traders are lucky enough to be able to trade as a full-time profession so why do we do it?

Personally, I trade to help me with my “day job”. I find that I retain levels in my head far better if I have some financial commitment. But there needs to be an emotional connection to be a good trader. That cannot be replicated yet by artificial intelligence, but I imagine one day it will.

As with any technological advance, it is easy to become a slave to it, rather than allow it to enhance the experience. As we become more ingrained in or own trading strategy and mentality, we should always question the what our “bots” suggest since we have access to the wider picture. At a forum I attended recently, I asked the question of a few traders “do you always put trades on when you get a signal without consideration”. I was amazed to find that more than 70% said they do. When challenged about market context the answer was generally “nothing matters except the technicals 100% of the cases I simply shrugged and moved on.

Since the mid-1600’s, when trading in shares first started the best mathematical minds have been trying (and failing) to be able to second guess mathematically the market and its participants mindset. Until traders relinquish a hold on the market and AI becomes an absolute reality able to, not only replicate but, improve upon the best trader’s mindset and methods, a three sixty-degree strategy will still prove to be the most effective.

Bitcoin rally brings usual overreaction

Bitcoin moved closer to the $8k handle this week and its fans were figuratively out on the street waving banners telling us it was “going to the moon. It is always difficult if not impossible to get a handle on the volume and value of trades going through that create this move.

There are four classic reasons for currency appreciation (or depreciation); technical, fundamental, supply and demand and sentimental.  Since the first two don’t really apply, it is the latter two that are behind the currency rally.

Bitcoin is still 44% lower on the year, and despite my feelings to the contrary on the markets ability to track it technically, remains in a downtrend.

It still seems that for every “going to the moon” voice there is another saying, “at this level it is about $8k overvalued”. That is supposed to be the beauty of a market that there are as many potential buyers as sellers, but it is being driven by those not prepared to put their money where their mouth is but encourage others to take on the risk while earning an introducing Brokers commission.  

lastest Articles

PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (23.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD recovery halted ahead of 1.1490
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD – Canadian dollar continues to drift, BoC expected to raise rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index fades the spike to tops above 96.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: your goal is to trade well
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: The pair remains capped by the lower 1.1600s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit: Negotiations continuing – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP futures: neutral so far, further decline not ruled out
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (22.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD flirting with lows, back closer to 1.30 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Ascending trend-channel support prospects for additional gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Banks, miners led the way higher for FTSE 100
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD reverses course, hits lows near 1.3050 on Brexit anxiety
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results (15.10-19.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX WEEK AHEAD
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (19.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold: bulls making a fresh attempt to build on momentum beyond 100-day EMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP rebound seen as corrective only – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: The cross met support in the 128.30 region. Remains vulnerable
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY clings to strong recovery gains, around mid-112.00s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Scope for a new visit to 2018 lows at 1.1299
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD struggles near 1-week lows, around 1.3100 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Yuan loses ground after U.S. stops short of calling China a currency manipulator
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD recovers ground and tests 1.1530
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index drops to lows near 95.50
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: The pair looks negative and could re-visit 1.1299
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (17.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Greenback bulls looking for a breakout above 112.55 resistance
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Bullish attempts should face initial hurdle at the 200-day SMA at 130.75
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD still points to further consolidation – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold spikes to fresh session tops, bulls eyeing a sustained move beyond 100-DMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD keeps focused on 1.3298 – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (16.10.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Gold holds steady below 2-1/2 month highs, around $1230 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD breaks above 1.3200 on UK jobs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: The key to trading success is emotional discipline
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/CAD stuck in a range below 1.30 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY bulls trying to build on momentum beyond 112.00 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD stays neutral and is seen rangebound near term – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD climbs back closer to over 1-week tops, comfortable above 0.71 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Spot poised for some consolidation near term. Resistance at 21-day SMA at 1.1616
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Confirms a bearish breakthrough near 4-week old trading range
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY drops to near 1-month low, farther below 112.00 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Retail Sales to Support Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD edges higher to 9-day tops above 0.7130 on improved sentiment
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD keeps targeting 1.3298
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY trims early recovery gains, still comfortable above 112.00 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD should push higher
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD rallies seen struggling around 1.1625
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: The Sterling is trapped just above 1.3200
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD punches above 1.30 as Canadian dollar sags, CPI next
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD moves higher and approaches 1.1600 ahead of ECB, US CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD has the fuel for a rally
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Brexit headlines, firm EMAs keeping the Cable bolstered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil struggles for direction as investors watch Hurricane Michael, weigh Iranian sanctions
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Fails ahead of 200-hour SMA, back below 0.71 mark amid renewed USD buying
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asia: No currency manipulators
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Emerging economies at risk amid 'complacent' markets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling weakens as Brexit concerns weigh
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD – Euro under pressure, shrugs off strong German trade surplus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD hits fresh session lows, around mid-1.3000s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Why gold prices may have already bottomed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR longs dropped, USD longs remain consolidative
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed’s Bullard: Higher US interest rates no longer necessary
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Has eroded a key rising trendline
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FX Week Ahead – Dollar Slows Down After US Jobs Miss
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: rolling over in favor of the bears
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD slips below mid-1.1700s, focus remains on FOMC decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Consolidating last week’s gains below 0.9000 figure - Bulls can come back soon
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Retreats from 200-hour SMA/ascending trend channel confluence hurdle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Strong foreign demand of financial assets - RBS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: A test of 133.50 stays on the cards
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CHF stays offered below 0.9789 – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD seen testing 1.1850 in the short-term – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD fades a spike to 0.7305 – 3-week tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: bulls looking for one more run at 1.33
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD should find initial support at 1.1624
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Door open for a test of 132.00 and above
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD still neutral, likely to consolidate near term
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Inflationary impact of Chinese tariffs to be modest - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP futures: up move seen running out of steam
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY positive view unchanged above 110.76 – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: holding into bullish pressure despite risk flows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Still targets the 200-day SMA at 131.11
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Riksbank Minutes amongst market movers today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bears waiting near 1.31
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Trade Tensions Return as US Tariffs on China Lift Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: A test of July’s tops beyond 132.00 gains further traction
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR futures: rising odds for extra gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD climbs to fresh 6-week tops, further beyond 1.3100 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY aims for extra gains while above 111.35
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD keeps the tight range above 1.1600 post-ECB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD still expected to test 1.13170 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB and BoE to be the key event today – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD stays bullish above 1.2997/30
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD fails once again above 1.1600, US PPI eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD neutral although a test of lower levels remains on the cards – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY trades with modest losses, around mid-111.00s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Short-term bias still bullish but momentum eases
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613