something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

RBA: No substantive changes

The minutes to the RBA’s June monetary policy meeting mainly reiterated the key points from the Governor’s decision statement and the additional ‘message’ from previous minutes – that the Bank’s main focus was on developments in labour and housing markets, according to Matthew Hassan, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“That said, there were some notable details: an intriguing new paragraph on financial stability in the ‘Considerations for Monetary Policy’ section; a slightly more bullish/hawkish discussion of international conditions; and several useful snippets from the detailed discussion including those gleaned from the Bank’s liaison programme.”

“As per the Governor’s decision statement, the slower growth picture for the March quarter was acknowledged but attributed to “quarter to quarter variation” with the Bank’s positive medium term outlook for growth to rise to a little above 3% reaffirmed.”

“The labour market commentary in the minutes was perhaps a little more positive than in the Governor’s statement which explicitly described indicators as “mixed”. The minutes do not use this particular term although the rest of the discussion is the same. Note that the RBA meeting took place well before the surprisingly strong May labour force report released last Thursday.”

“The more constructive view around business investment that appeared in the decision statement was largely repeated, the detailed discussion downplaying the disappointing forward view from the Capex survey, citing its limited coverage and more positive tone from approvals, liaison feedback and business surveys.”

“Turning to the ‘notable details’, the new paragraph on financial stability added to the ‘considerations’ section notes this aspect of the RBA’s role sits within its wider medium term inflation targeting framework, the effect of monetary policy decisions within this framework and the role of prudential supervision. It stresses the importance of cooperation and coordination across agencies facilitated by the Council of Financial Regulators. While there are no ‘overt’ messages in the discussion, its inclusion is intriguing. Is it, for example, implying that a coordinated approach may also apply if the RBA were to consider additional rate cuts? Alternatively, is it simply restating the clear message the Bank has already given about the importance of financial stability concerns for policy and a broad endorsement of the current status quo?”

“The June meeting minutes sounded less wary on international conditions and more alert to a potential lift in inflation. Whereas previous minutes regularly noted risks to China around residential property markets and rising leverage in the Chinese economy, this line did not feature in June which ran with simpler observations including that the “recovery in residential construction had continued despite the Chinese authorities having again tightened policy measures aimed at reducing speculative activity”.” 

“Conclusion

Monetary policy clearly remains firmly on hold as the Board assesses developments in housing and labour markets. The strong May labour force report released the week after the Bank’s June meeting would have eased some of its concerns on this front, although weak wages growth is likely still a factor (indeed this is one aspect of current conditions that could have received more discussion in the minutes which simply noted the link to consumer incomes and spending). It may also be becoming more comfortable around housing market risks as well although the situation here is clearly still evolving.

Overall there appears to be little shifting the Bank away from its positive medium term view on growth. Westpac’s more downbeat forecast for 2018 – based on a more significant drag from housing construction and falling commodity prices – will take time to become apparent and, in our view, will not be sufficient to draw an RBA interest rate response, particularly given its concerns about potential financial stability risks. As such we remain comfortable with our view that rates will remain on hold for the remainder of 2017 and 2018.”

Source: fxstreet.com

The minutes to the RBA’s June monetary policy meeting mainly reiterated the key points from the Governor’s decision statement and the additional ‘message’ from previous minutes – that the Bank’s main focus was on developments in labour and housing markets, according to Matthew Hassan, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“That said, there were some notable details: an intriguing new paragraph on financial stability in the ‘Considerations for Monetary Policy’ section; a slightly more bullish/hawkish discussion of international conditions; and several useful snippets from the detailed discussion including those gleaned from the Bank’s liaison programme.”

“As per the Governor’s decision statement, the slower growth picture for the March quarter was acknowledged but attributed to “quarter to quarter variation” with the Bank’s positive medium term outlook for growth to rise to a little above 3% reaffirmed.”

“The labour market commentary in the minutes was perhaps a little more positive than in the Governor’s statement which explicitly described indicators as “mixed”. The minutes do not use this particular term although the rest of the discussion is the same. Note that the RBA meeting took place well before the surprisingly strong May labour force report released last Thursday.”

“The more constructive view around business investment that appeared in the decision statement was largely repeated, the detailed discussion downplaying the disappointing forward view from the Capex survey, citing its limited coverage and more positive tone from approvals, liaison feedback and business surveys.”

“Turning to the ‘notable details’, the new paragraph on financial stability added to the ‘considerations’ section notes this aspect of the RBA’s role sits within its wider medium term inflation targeting framework, the effect of monetary policy decisions within this framework and the role of prudential supervision. It stresses the importance of cooperation and coordination across agencies facilitated by the Council of Financial Regulators. While there are no ‘overt’ messages in the discussion, its inclusion is intriguing. Is it, for example, implying that a coordinated approach may also apply if the RBA were to consider additional rate cuts? Alternatively, is it simply restating the clear message the Bank has already given about the importance of financial stability concerns for policy and a broad endorsement of the current status quo?”

“The June meeting minutes sounded less wary on international conditions and more alert to a potential lift in inflation. Whereas previous minutes regularly noted risks to China around residential property markets and rising leverage in the Chinese economy, this line did not feature in June which ran with simpler observations including that the “recovery in residential construction had continued despite the Chinese authorities having again tightened policy measures aimed at reducing speculative activity”.” 

“Conclusion

Monetary policy clearly remains firmly on hold as the Board assesses developments in housing and labour markets. The strong May labour force report released the week after the Bank’s June meeting would have eased some of its concerns on this front, although weak wages growth is likely still a factor (indeed this is one aspect of current conditions that could have received more discussion in the minutes which simply noted the link to consumer incomes and spending). It may also be becoming more comfortable around housing market risks as well although the situation here is clearly still evolving.

Overall there appears to be little shifting the Bank away from its positive medium term view on growth. Westpac’s more downbeat forecast for 2018 – based on a more significant drag from housing construction and falling commodity prices – will take time to become apparent and, in our view, will not be sufficient to draw an RBA interest rate response, particularly given its concerns about potential financial stability risks. As such we remain comfortable with our view that rates will remain on hold for the remainder of 2017 and 2018.”

Source: fxstreet.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
EUR/USD seen testing 1.1850 in the short-term – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD fades a spike to 0.7305 – 3-week tops
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: bulls looking for one more run at 1.33
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD should find initial support at 1.1624
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Door open for a test of 132.00 and above
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD still neutral, likely to consolidate near term
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Inflationary impact of Chinese tariffs to be modest - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP futures: up move seen running out of steam
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY positive view unchanged above 110.76 – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: holding into bullish pressure despite risk flows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Still targets the 200-day SMA at 131.11
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Riksbank Minutes amongst market movers today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bears waiting near 1.31
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Trade Tensions Return as US Tariffs on China Lift Dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: A test of July’s tops beyond 132.00 gains further traction
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR futures: rising odds for extra gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD climbs to fresh 6-week tops, further beyond 1.3100 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY aims for extra gains while above 111.35
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD keeps the tight range above 1.1600 post-ECB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD still expected to test 1.13170 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB and BoE to be the key event today – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD stays bullish above 1.2997/30
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD fails once again above 1.1600, US PPI eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD neutral although a test of lower levels remains on the cards – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY trades with modest losses, around mid-111.00s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Short-term bias still bullish but momentum eases
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Bulls eager to break above 112.00 figure
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil rises as U.S. sanctions on Iran squeeze supply
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: Good traders liquidate when they are wrong, great traders reverse when they are wrong
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling surges on hopes for Brexit deal, yen dips on chipmaker deal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: sees risk-recovery in Asia, UK earnings in spotlight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (10.09.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Swissy trapped in ranges
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling edges up after biggest weekly drop in a month
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: On losing-Pig Insider
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar edges higher on trade tensions, Swedish crown rises after vote
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 10.09.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Market Events Ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX WEEK AHEAD : Trade Tensions and Strong US Employment Lift Dollar
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Bulls trying to regain control, eyeing a move beyond 100/200-hour SMA
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: systems and tendencies-Eckhardt
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar in check as investors await August jobs report
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 07.09.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (06.09.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Initiates Bullish Series Despite Disappointing Euro-Area Data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Philip-Fisher-wisdom-trading-quote
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling to float up around 6 percent in a year, but no-deal Brexit would sink it - Reuters poll
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 06.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling edges lower for a fifth day on trade war fears
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Wisdom: The Wise Pig on results
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling plunges vs euro as Brexit fears take centre-stage
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 04.09.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (03.09.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
US Dollar within range above 95.00
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 03.09.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: If you can’t do a thing better than others are doing it, don’t do it at all
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling falls as Brexit headlines sap demand
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Market Events Ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Weekly Results (27.08-01.09.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
FOREX Week Ahead: US Dollar Mixed on Trade Deal Versus Trade War Balance
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote: Bruce Kovner - Quote on risk management
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling set for fifth straight monthly drop on Brexit nerves
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar edges up on latest round of U.S.-China trade tensions
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 31.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (30.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD – British pound pauses after sharp gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:A trader should look at a chart for what it is, and not for what he want it to be.
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
EUR/USD falls back below 1.1700 handle amid re-emerging Turkish crisis
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling jumps on EU official's Brexit views; dollar near 4-week low
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 30.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:If the losses don't hurt, your financial survival is tenuous
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
WTI looks to $ 69 ahead of EIA data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Yuan eases on dollar demand, snapping a 3-day winning streak
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar little changed as investors await trade news
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (28.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
GBP/USD struggling to make new short-term cycle highs, support is 1.2850
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY – Yen trading sideways, as Japanese, U.S data beats expectations
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US stocks continue scaling higher on easing trade fears
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
WTI bounces-back above $ 69 mark, API data in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:Nothing is worth doing unless it is worth doing right
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar mired near one-month low on trade deal; pound struggles
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 28.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Price Outlook: Loonie Threatens Breakout on Easing Trade Tensions
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Yuan hits four-week high as China signals support, revives X-factor for fixing
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:Schwager-dont stay wrong
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar softens as Powell disappoints bulls, NAFTA hopes lift Mexican peso
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 27.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Drops After Powell Stresses Gradual Approach to Rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD edges lower toward 1.30 on unabated USD sell-off
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil stages sharp bounce, a day after snapping win streak
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Sterling stuck near 11-month lows vs euro
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:Koner-your position in half
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Dollar holds gains after U.S.-China trade talks, focus shifts to Fed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 24.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
PAMM News
Managed Forex Accounts Daily Results (23.08.2018)
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
USD/CAD stays in the upper half of its daily range above 1.3050
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Quips of Wisdom
FOREX Trading Quote:promiscious in search not in trading-Eckhardt
https://en.gravatar.com/userimage/34011725/cac48086660b253b9c1e53a8b4a23604.png
Market Analysis
Sterling falls as Britain steps up planning for no-deal Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar up as Aussie drops, Fed minutes signal Sept. rate rise coming
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets 23.08.2018: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613