something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

RBA: No substantive changes

The minutes to the RBA’s June monetary policy meeting mainly reiterated the key points from the Governor’s decision statement and the additional ‘message’ from previous minutes – that the Bank’s main focus was on developments in labour and housing markets, according to Matthew Hassan, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“That said, there were some notable details: an intriguing new paragraph on financial stability in the ‘Considerations for Monetary Policy’ section; a slightly more bullish/hawkish discussion of international conditions; and several useful snippets from the detailed discussion including those gleaned from the Bank’s liaison programme.”

“As per the Governor’s decision statement, the slower growth picture for the March quarter was acknowledged but attributed to “quarter to quarter variation” with the Bank’s positive medium term outlook for growth to rise to a little above 3% reaffirmed.”

“The labour market commentary in the minutes was perhaps a little more positive than in the Governor’s statement which explicitly described indicators as “mixed”. The minutes do not use this particular term although the rest of the discussion is the same. Note that the RBA meeting took place well before the surprisingly strong May labour force report released last Thursday.”

“The more constructive view around business investment that appeared in the decision statement was largely repeated, the detailed discussion downplaying the disappointing forward view from the Capex survey, citing its limited coverage and more positive tone from approvals, liaison feedback and business surveys.”

“Turning to the ‘notable details’, the new paragraph on financial stability added to the ‘considerations’ section notes this aspect of the RBA’s role sits within its wider medium term inflation targeting framework, the effect of monetary policy decisions within this framework and the role of prudential supervision. It stresses the importance of cooperation and coordination across agencies facilitated by the Council of Financial Regulators. While there are no ‘overt’ messages in the discussion, its inclusion is intriguing. Is it, for example, implying that a coordinated approach may also apply if the RBA were to consider additional rate cuts? Alternatively, is it simply restating the clear message the Bank has already given about the importance of financial stability concerns for policy and a broad endorsement of the current status quo?”

“The June meeting minutes sounded less wary on international conditions and more alert to a potential lift in inflation. Whereas previous minutes regularly noted risks to China around residential property markets and rising leverage in the Chinese economy, this line did not feature in June which ran with simpler observations including that the “recovery in residential construction had continued despite the Chinese authorities having again tightened policy measures aimed at reducing speculative activity”.” 

“Conclusion

Monetary policy clearly remains firmly on hold as the Board assesses developments in housing and labour markets. The strong May labour force report released the week after the Bank’s June meeting would have eased some of its concerns on this front, although weak wages growth is likely still a factor (indeed this is one aspect of current conditions that could have received more discussion in the minutes which simply noted the link to consumer incomes and spending). It may also be becoming more comfortable around housing market risks as well although the situation here is clearly still evolving.

Overall there appears to be little shifting the Bank away from its positive medium term view on growth. Westpac’s more downbeat forecast for 2018 – based on a more significant drag from housing construction and falling commodity prices – will take time to become apparent and, in our view, will not be sufficient to draw an RBA interest rate response, particularly given its concerns about potential financial stability risks. As such we remain comfortable with our view that rates will remain on hold for the remainder of 2017 and 2018.”

Source: fxstreet.com

The minutes to the RBA’s June monetary policy meeting mainly reiterated the key points from the Governor’s decision statement and the additional ‘message’ from previous minutes – that the Bank’s main focus was on developments in labour and housing markets, according to Matthew Hassan, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“That said, there were some notable details: an intriguing new paragraph on financial stability in the ‘Considerations for Monetary Policy’ section; a slightly more bullish/hawkish discussion of international conditions; and several useful snippets from the detailed discussion including those gleaned from the Bank’s liaison programme.”

“As per the Governor’s decision statement, the slower growth picture for the March quarter was acknowledged but attributed to “quarter to quarter variation” with the Bank’s positive medium term outlook for growth to rise to a little above 3% reaffirmed.”

“The labour market commentary in the minutes was perhaps a little more positive than in the Governor’s statement which explicitly described indicators as “mixed”. The minutes do not use this particular term although the rest of the discussion is the same. Note that the RBA meeting took place well before the surprisingly strong May labour force report released last Thursday.”

“The more constructive view around business investment that appeared in the decision statement was largely repeated, the detailed discussion downplaying the disappointing forward view from the Capex survey, citing its limited coverage and more positive tone from approvals, liaison feedback and business surveys.”

“Turning to the ‘notable details’, the new paragraph on financial stability added to the ‘considerations’ section notes this aspect of the RBA’s role sits within its wider medium term inflation targeting framework, the effect of monetary policy decisions within this framework and the role of prudential supervision. It stresses the importance of cooperation and coordination across agencies facilitated by the Council of Financial Regulators. While there are no ‘overt’ messages in the discussion, its inclusion is intriguing. Is it, for example, implying that a coordinated approach may also apply if the RBA were to consider additional rate cuts? Alternatively, is it simply restating the clear message the Bank has already given about the importance of financial stability concerns for policy and a broad endorsement of the current status quo?”

“The June meeting minutes sounded less wary on international conditions and more alert to a potential lift in inflation. Whereas previous minutes regularly noted risks to China around residential property markets and rising leverage in the Chinese economy, this line did not feature in June which ran with simpler observations including that the “recovery in residential construction had continued despite the Chinese authorities having again tightened policy measures aimed at reducing speculative activity”.” 

“Conclusion

Monetary policy clearly remains firmly on hold as the Board assesses developments in housing and labour markets. The strong May labour force report released the week after the Bank’s June meeting would have eased some of its concerns on this front, although weak wages growth is likely still a factor (indeed this is one aspect of current conditions that could have received more discussion in the minutes which simply noted the link to consumer incomes and spending). It may also be becoming more comfortable around housing market risks as well although the situation here is clearly still evolving.

Overall there appears to be little shifting the Bank away from its positive medium term view on growth. Westpac’s more downbeat forecast for 2018 – based on a more significant drag from housing construction and falling commodity prices – will take time to become apparent and, in our view, will not be sufficient to draw an RBA interest rate response, particularly given its concerns about potential financial stability risks. As such we remain comfortable with our view that rates will remain on hold for the remainder of 2017 and 2018.”

Source: fxstreet.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
BOE Quick Analysis: Bailey blasts sterling with specter of negative rates, why more falls are likely
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s De Guindos: Euro exchange rate is fundamental for inflation
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Fed drives dollar higher, gold and stocks lower, BOE, jobless claims eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold aims $1980 as focus shifts to Wednesday’s FOMC
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD to surge to 1.40 by September-2021 – UBS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Upbeat Chinese data boosts mood, Boris' bill passes first hurdle, Gold shines
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – More stimulus on the way?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Lane: Euro's rise dampens inflation outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: King dollar holds the rein amid cautious optimism, eyes on US CPI
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Forecast: Euro set to fall? ECB expectations may be overconfident
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Brexit in deep crisis, vaccine hopes resurface, all eyes on the ECB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brent Oil resumes its core bear trend
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Muller: A timely exit from temporary emergency measures is important
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Vaccine trial halt exacerbates risk off mood, Brexit, BOC, and US fiscal talks eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD drops further and approaches $1,900/oz
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bitcoin Price Update: BTC bulls ready to strike back once $11,000 is cleared
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Hard-Brexit fears pound the Pound, Dollar bid on US-Sino woes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD risks deeper pullback as 1.20 peak looks far
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Downside appears more compelling while below $1946 – Confluence Detector
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar stabilizes in the NFP aftermath, Oil tumbles amid holiday-thinned trading
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead - Trump Closing the Gap
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Fed’s policy shift to introduce vital noise
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold rebounds from weekly lows, turns neutral around $1945 region
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD trims losses and regains 1.1850 post-US ISM
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed's Williams: Policymakers seek inflation that targets 2% over time
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bitcoin Cash Market Update: BCH fork is inevitable as Bitcoin ABC team separates from the project
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar climbs back from the abyss, ADP NFP, Fed speakers awaited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Bring on the Jobs Report
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Jackson Hole Goes Virtual
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead - The focus remains on COVID-19, the Fed and Congress
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Gold up, dollar down amid stalled fiscal talks, vaccine hopes, ahead of jobless claims
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead- Is the economic recovery stalling?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar licking its wounds, gold gives ground, ahead of the all-important Fed decision
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – What more can the Fed do?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bitcoin Market Update: BTC/USD hits a pause button before another bullish assault
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Potential correction ahead of further gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: China's payback weighs on markets, boosts dollar, PMIs, coronavirus figures eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Technicals show bulls have the upper hand
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: Correction in sight after reaching nine-year highs
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar licking its wounds, gold shines, US coronavirus cases eyed after Trump's U-turn
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold jumps to fresh multi-year tops, beyond $1820 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EUR/USD sells the fact, Gold looking strong, Trump's coronavirus briefs make comeback
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bitcoin Market Update: BTC fails to live up to the status of digital gold
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
S&P 500 Futures Price Analysis: Bears retain control after rejection at falling trendline resistance
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: EU leaders can’t reach an agreement on the EU rescue fund
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Focus remains on Virus Spread, Fiscal Stimulus, Rebounding data, and Earnings
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD continues to look at the 1.1495 March high
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD to remain resilient in the near-term
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominates ahead of EU Summit, updated look at the US consumer amid rising cases
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold probes multi-day lows around $1,790/oz
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Price Analysis: A test of 1.1420 appears closer
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US dollar seizes control as risk aversion returns, a busy docket ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold to stay above $1800 fueled by lower real rates
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB expected to keep rates unchanged
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Vaccine, earnings optimism downs the dollar; eyes on COVID-19 stats, BOE’s Bailey
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Bring on Earnings Season
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Crude Oil Futures: Upside looks limited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Lagarde: Economic recovery would be constrained, uncertain and fragmented
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Gold eyeing $1,800, dollar mixed, as coronavirus, Hong Kong peg move markets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Holds steady above $1775 level, bullish bias remains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOJ to project economic recovery in report next week – Reuters
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Chinese optimism downs dollar as investors ignore US coronavirus, data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Economic Reopening Continues
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Stocks' strength, dollar downing face Non-Farm Payrolls test as Trump endorses masks
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE's Haskel: Activity appears to be coming back faster than anticipated
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
GBP Bank Account
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Gold shines, markets look for direction after a successful Q2, ahead of busy start to Q3
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold eases below $1770 level, downside seems limited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Europe fights coronavirus and stuns the dollar
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Markets attempt to shrug off grim coronavirus developments
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Jitters Continue into Busy Week
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US Dollar Index clings to gains near 97.50 ahead of data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Lagarde: Economic recovery will be a complicated matter
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold sticks to the positive outlook
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Focus now shifted to 1.1170
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar dominates, gold shines as coronavirus rages in the US, triple data release eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Rising bets for a test of 1.1400 and beyond
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD recedes from tops above 1.1300
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: Falling US Real Yields fuels bull trend towards new highs at $1921 – Credit Suisse
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk rides the Navarro rollercoaster, Eurozone/ UK PMIs, virus stats in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE is seen increasing further the size of QE – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Risk-recovery back in play, US dollar recedes with second-wave virus fears
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Markets play tug-of-war with Covid-19 concerns and reopening momentum
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus, weak data outweigh reopening optimism, BOE, jobless claims eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's de Guindos: Better if EU aid is distributed via grants rather than loans
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD slumps toward $1,710 on improving risk sentiment
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar up as health, geopolitics replace consumer optimism, Powell, COVID-19 data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold clings to modest daily gains, around $1730 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Double stimulus talk downs dollar ahead of Powell's power-play, US retail sales
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Coronavirus concerns trigger dollar domination, commodity currencies climb down
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – Market Recovery Under Threat?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Houston, we have a problem, US coronavirus, Fed gloom, crash markets, consumers eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Obsessed
Killing Hope ( Before it Kills You )
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Euro Fails at Resistance as Federal Reserve Expands Lending Program
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Can the dollar lick its wounds? Fed speculation, geopolitics, and data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD: Brexit, coronavirus and protests to pressure the pound
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: The beginning of the end, $1600 by Q3
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar looking for a new direction after the excellent Non-Farm Payrolls, Lagarde eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – The Recovery Continues
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: 1.1333 initial target reached, aims 1.1495 March peak – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613