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FOREX Tech Targets

Forex_Trading_Fx_Trader_FXPIG_Tech-analysis_Tech-Targets_Bulls-and-bears-01.02.2019

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): NY closing above 1.1490 would suggest EUR is ready to challenge 1.1570. No change in view. Note that EUR closed well below 1.1490.

We have held the same view since Monday (28 Jan, spot at 1.1410) wherein there is “room for EUR to test 1.1490”. We had doubts about the “the sustainability of the advance” but added, “a daily closing above 1.1490 would indicate that EUR is ready to challenge the month-to-date high at 1.1570”. EUR cracked 1.1490 yesterday after a more dovish Fed but eased off from 1.1502 and closed at 1.1477 (+0.85%). From here, the odds for a daily closing above 1.1490 have improved and as highlighted, this would indicate that EUR is ready to challenge 1.1570. All in, there is no change to the directional view for EUR and only a move below 1.1395 (‘key support’ was at 1.1360 yesterday) would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP has moved into a correction/consolidation phase.

There is not much to add to the update from Tuesday (29 Jan, spot at 1.3150) wherein we held the view that GBP has found a short-term top at 1.3218 last Friday (25 Jan). As highlighted, the price action in GBP is deemed as part of a correction/consolidation phase and not the start of a major bearish reversal. In other words, we continue to expect GBP to trade sideways for the next few days, likely between 1.2950 and 1.3200.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): AUD is expected to strengthen further, next resistance zone is at 0.7300/0.7320. No change in view.

We have expected a stronger AUD since Monday (28 Jan, spot at 0.7170) but held the view AUD “may struggle to break the 0.7235/50 resistance zone”. The anticipated advance in AUD received a huge boost from Fed as a more dovish statement sent AUD rocketing to an overnight high of 0.7276. The ease of which the strong resistance zone is taken out suggests AUD could continue to strengthen. From here, there is another strong resistance zone between 0.7300 and 0.7320 and a clear break of this zone would open up the way for a move to last December’s peak of 0.7395. All in, we continue to expect AUD to strengthen and only a break of 0.7170 (key level was at 0.7090 yesterday) would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): Still expecting a stronger NZD but 0.6970 may not come into the picture so soon.

NZD extended its advance and hit a ‘fresh’ high of 0.6939 before easing off. While we continue to expect NZD to strengthen, the recent rally appears to be running too fast, too soon and the major 0.6970 resistance may not come into the picture so soon. In other words, NZD is unlikely able to maintain the pace of its up-move. However, only a break of the 0.6840 ‘key support’ (level was at 0.6810 yesterday) would indicate that the rally in NZD has run its course.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Only a NY closing below 108.60 would indicate start of a sustained decline in JPY.

While USD dipped below the strong 108.60 support yesterday, it rebounded quickly after briefly touching 108.48. As highlighted yesterday, only a ‘clear break’ of 108.60 would indicate that USD is ready to challenge the next support at 108.20. In other words, we have doubts about the sustainability of JPY weakness and we prefer to wait for a NY closing below 108.60 before adopting a negative stance. The prospect for this scenario is not high at this stage but would increase further unless USD can move and stay above 109.50.

Source:

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): NY closing above 1.1490 would suggest EUR is ready to challenge 1.1570. No change in view. Note that EUR closed well below 1.1490.

We have held the same view since Monday (28 Jan, spot at 1.1410) wherein there is “room for EUR to test 1.1490”. We had doubts about the “the sustainability of the advance” but added, “a daily closing above 1.1490 would indicate that EUR is ready to challenge the month-to-date high at 1.1570”. EUR cracked 1.1490 yesterday after a more dovish Fed but eased off from 1.1502 and closed at 1.1477 (+0.85%). From here, the odds for a daily closing above 1.1490 have improved and as highlighted, this would indicate that EUR is ready to challenge 1.1570. All in, there is no change to the directional view for EUR and only a move below 1.1395 (‘key support’ was at 1.1360 yesterday) would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP has moved into a correction/consolidation phase.

There is not much to add to the update from Tuesday (29 Jan, spot at 1.3150) wherein we held the view that GBP has found a short-term top at 1.3218 last Friday (25 Jan). As highlighted, the price action in GBP is deemed as part of a correction/consolidation phase and not the start of a major bearish reversal. In other words, we continue to expect GBP to trade sideways for the next few days, likely between 1.2950 and 1.3200.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): AUD is expected to strengthen further, next resistance zone is at 0.7300/0.7320. No change in view.

We have expected a stronger AUD since Monday (28 Jan, spot at 0.7170) but held the view AUD “may struggle to break the 0.7235/50 resistance zone”. The anticipated advance in AUD received a huge boost from Fed as a more dovish statement sent AUD rocketing to an overnight high of 0.7276. The ease of which the strong resistance zone is taken out suggests AUD could continue to strengthen. From here, there is another strong resistance zone between 0.7300 and 0.7320 and a clear break of this zone would open up the way for a move to last December’s peak of 0.7395. All in, we continue to expect AUD to strengthen and only a break of 0.7170 (key level was at 0.7090 yesterday) would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): Still expecting a stronger NZD but 0.6970 may not come into the picture so soon.

NZD extended its advance and hit a ‘fresh’ high of 0.6939 before easing off. While we continue to expect NZD to strengthen, the recent rally appears to be running too fast, too soon and the major 0.6970 resistance may not come into the picture so soon. In other words, NZD is unlikely able to maintain the pace of its up-move. However, only a break of the 0.6840 ‘key support’ (level was at 0.6810 yesterday) would indicate that the rally in NZD has run its course.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Only a NY closing below 108.60 would indicate start of a sustained decline in JPY.

While USD dipped below the strong 108.60 support yesterday, it rebounded quickly after briefly touching 108.48. As highlighted yesterday, only a ‘clear break’ of 108.60 would indicate that USD is ready to challenge the next support at 108.20. In other words, we have doubts about the sustainability of JPY weakness and we prefer to wait for a NY closing below 108.60 before adopting a negative stance. The prospect for this scenario is not high at this stage but would increase further unless USD can move and stay above 109.50.

Source:

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