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FOREX Tech Targets

Bulls-and-bears_FXPIG_forex_02.05.2019

EUR/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: Weakness in EUR could test 1.1170 first before a recovery can be expected. After edging to a high of 1.1265, EUR plunged and hit a low of 1.1186 during late-NY hours. While the sharp and rapid decline appears to be running ahead of itself, the down-move is not showing sign of stabilizing. From here, EUR could test the 1.1170 support first before a recovery can be expected. For today, the next support at 1.1145 is not expected to come into the picture. On the upside, only a move above 1.1240 would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized (minor resistance is at 1.1220).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: EUR is expected to trade sideways. EUR cracked the 1.1210 ‘key resistance’ on Tuesday (30 Apr) before extending its gain to a 2-week high of 1.1265 yesterday (01 May). The up-move was however short-lived as it dropped sharply after FOMC announcement and ended the day lower by -0.18% (NY close of 1.1194). The inability to extend its weakness below 1.1100 (last week low of 1.1110) and the rapid pull-back from the 1.1265 trend-line resistance suggest the current movement is likely part of a consolidation phase. In other words, EUR is expected to trade sideways.

GBP/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: GBP is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.3010/1.3090 range. The swift drop from an overnight high of occurred amidst overbought conditions. The late-NY peak of 1.3102 is deemed as a short-term top and GBP is expected to stay below this level for today. That said, it is too soon to expect a sustained pull-back. GBP is more likely to consolidate and trade sideways at these higher levels, expected to be within a 1.3010/1.3090 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Rebound in GBP has scope to extend to 1.3130. The strong advance in GBP over the past couple of days took out several strong resistance levels with ease. The price action suggests GBP has likely made a short-term bottom at 1.2866 last Thursday (25 Apr). While upward momentum is not exactly strong, the rebound from the low has room to extend higher towards 1.3130. At this stage, the prospect for a move to the April’s peak of 1.3196 is not high. All in, GBP is expected to trade with a positive bias from here and only a break of the 1.2975 ‘key support’ would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.

AUD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: AUD could continue to move lower but weakness could be ‘limited’ to a probe of last week’s 0.6988 low. While the rapid drop during late-NY hours appears to be overdone, the weakened underlying tone suggests AUD could continue to move lower from here. That said, in view of the lackluster momentum, any weakness could be ‘limited’ to a probe of last week’s low at 0.6988 (a sustained drop below this level is not expected). Resistance is at 0.7030 followed by 0.7045. The 0.7060 high registered early yesterday is not expected to be challenged.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: A NY close below 0.7005 would open up the way for AUD to move to 0.6950. After the sharp decline in AUD last week, we indicated last Thursday (25 Apr, spot at 0.7015) that only a “NY close below 0.7005 would open up the way for AUD to move to 0.6950”. Since then, AUD staged a mild recovery and touched 0.7069 on Tuesday (30 Apr) before dropping back quickly yesterday. The underlying tone remains soft and we continue to hold the same view that AUD could extend its weakness to 0.6950. Only a break of the 0.7080 ‘key resistance’ (level was previously at 0.7100) would indicate that last week’s 0.6988 low is a short-term bottom.

NZD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: NZD could drift lower but a break of the solid 0.6610 support would come as a surprise. Despite the sharp overnight decline, downward momentum has not improved by much. That said, the soft underlying tone suggests NZD could drift lower from here but a break of the solid 0.6610 support would come as a surprise. Resistance is at 0.6645 followed by 0.6660.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Short-term bottom in place, NZD has likely moved into a consolidation phase. There is not much to add to the update from Monday (29 Apr, spot at 0.6660). As indicated, NZD has likely moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 0.6610/0.6730 range.

USD/JPY:

24-HOUR VIEW: USD could move above the overnight high of 111.61 but a move beyond 111.85 appears highly unlikely. After dropping to a low of 111.03, USD soared to an overnight high of 111.61. While upward momentum has not improved by much, USD could move above the overnight high. That said, a move beyond the next resistance at 111.85 appears highly unlikely. On the downside, support is at 111.20 followed the solid support at 111.00.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: USD has likely moved into a consolidation phase. We have held the same view since last Friday (26 Apr, spot at 111.65) wherein USD is deemed to “have moved into a consolidation phase” and is expected to trade sideways within a broad 111.00/112.30. USD tested the bottom of the range yesterday (01 May) but rebounded strongly after touching 111.03. The price action reinforces our view and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways within the range mentioned above for now.

Source: efxdata

EUR/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: Weakness in EUR could test 1.1170 first before a recovery can be expected. After edging to a high of 1.1265, EUR plunged and hit a low of 1.1186 during late-NY hours. While the sharp and rapid decline appears to be running ahead of itself, the down-move is not showing sign of stabilizing. From here, EUR could test the 1.1170 support first before a recovery can be expected. For today, the next support at 1.1145 is not expected to come into the picture. On the upside, only a move above 1.1240 would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized (minor resistance is at 1.1220).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: EUR is expected to trade sideways. EUR cracked the 1.1210 ‘key resistance’ on Tuesday (30 Apr) before extending its gain to a 2-week high of 1.1265 yesterday (01 May). The up-move was however short-lived as it dropped sharply after FOMC announcement and ended the day lower by -0.18% (NY close of 1.1194). The inability to extend its weakness below 1.1100 (last week low of 1.1110) and the rapid pull-back from the 1.1265 trend-line resistance suggest the current movement is likely part of a consolidation phase. In other words, EUR is expected to trade sideways.

GBP/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: GBP is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.3010/1.3090 range. The swift drop from an overnight high of occurred amidst overbought conditions. The late-NY peak of 1.3102 is deemed as a short-term top and GBP is expected to stay below this level for today. That said, it is too soon to expect a sustained pull-back. GBP is more likely to consolidate and trade sideways at these higher levels, expected to be within a 1.3010/1.3090 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Rebound in GBP has scope to extend to 1.3130. The strong advance in GBP over the past couple of days took out several strong resistance levels with ease. The price action suggests GBP has likely made a short-term bottom at 1.2866 last Thursday (25 Apr). While upward momentum is not exactly strong, the rebound from the low has room to extend higher towards 1.3130. At this stage, the prospect for a move to the April’s peak of 1.3196 is not high. All in, GBP is expected to trade with a positive bias from here and only a break of the 1.2975 ‘key support’ would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.

AUD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: AUD could continue to move lower but weakness could be ‘limited’ to a probe of last week’s 0.6988 low. While the rapid drop during late-NY hours appears to be overdone, the weakened underlying tone suggests AUD could continue to move lower from here. That said, in view of the lackluster momentum, any weakness could be ‘limited’ to a probe of last week’s low at 0.6988 (a sustained drop below this level is not expected). Resistance is at 0.7030 followed by 0.7045. The 0.7060 high registered early yesterday is not expected to be challenged.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: A NY close below 0.7005 would open up the way for AUD to move to 0.6950. After the sharp decline in AUD last week, we indicated last Thursday (25 Apr, spot at 0.7015) that only a “NY close below 0.7005 would open up the way for AUD to move to 0.6950”. Since then, AUD staged a mild recovery and touched 0.7069 on Tuesday (30 Apr) before dropping back quickly yesterday. The underlying tone remains soft and we continue to hold the same view that AUD could extend its weakness to 0.6950. Only a break of the 0.7080 ‘key resistance’ (level was previously at 0.7100) would indicate that last week’s 0.6988 low is a short-term bottom.

NZD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: NZD could drift lower but a break of the solid 0.6610 support would come as a surprise. Despite the sharp overnight decline, downward momentum has not improved by much. That said, the soft underlying tone suggests NZD could drift lower from here but a break of the solid 0.6610 support would come as a surprise. Resistance is at 0.6645 followed by 0.6660.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Short-term bottom in place, NZD has likely moved into a consolidation phase. There is not much to add to the update from Monday (29 Apr, spot at 0.6660). As indicated, NZD has likely moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 0.6610/0.6730 range.

USD/JPY:

24-HOUR VIEW: USD could move above the overnight high of 111.61 but a move beyond 111.85 appears highly unlikely. After dropping to a low of 111.03, USD soared to an overnight high of 111.61. While upward momentum has not improved by much, USD could move above the overnight high. That said, a move beyond the next resistance at 111.85 appears highly unlikely. On the downside, support is at 111.20 followed the solid support at 111.00.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: USD has likely moved into a consolidation phase. We have held the same view since last Friday (26 Apr, spot at 111.65) wherein USD is deemed to “have moved into a consolidation phase” and is expected to trade sideways within a broad 111.00/112.30. USD tested the bottom of the range yesterday (01 May) but rebounded strongly after touching 111.03. The price action reinforces our view and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways within the range mentioned above for now.

Source: efxdata

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Market Analysis
Fed: Market currently fully pricing a 25bps cut – Deutsche Bank
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Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD -31.07.2019
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Market Analysis
Gold holds steady near $1425 area, focus remains on FOMC/US-China trade talks
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Market Analysis
BoJ: No fireworks offered
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Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY - 30.07.2019
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