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Bulls-andbears_forex_FXPIG_03.25.2019

EUR/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: EUR is not ready to recover but any further weakness is likely limited to a probe of 1.1145.

Yesterday, we were of the view that the “weakness in EUR could test 1.1170 first before a recovery can be expected”. While EUR dipped to 1.1169 during late-NY hours, the current soft patch in EUR is not showing sign of stabilizing. In other words, EUR is not ready to recover just yet. That said, lackluster momentum suggests any further weakness is likely limited to a probe of 1.1145 (the next support 1.1110 is unlikely to come into the picture). Resistance is at 1.1195 followed by 1.1220.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: EUR is expected to trade sideways. There is not much to add to the update from yesterday.

As highlighted, the rapid pull-back from the 1.1265 trend-line resistance and the inability to move below 1.1100 last week (low of 1.1110) suggest the current movement is likely part of a consolidation phase. In other words, EUR is expected to trade sideways for now, likely between the two strong levels of 1.1110 and 1.1265. For now, there is no early indication on which level is more ‘vulnerable’.

GBP/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: GBP is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.3000/1.3080 range.

GBP traded sideways between 1.3019 and 1.3083 yesterday, narrower than our expected range of 1.3010/1.3090. While the current movement is still viewed as part of a consolidation phase, the weakened underlying tone suggests a lower range of 1.3000/1.3080.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Rebound in GBP has scope to extend to 1.3130. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

The strong advance in GBP over the past couple of days took out several strong resistance levels with ease. The price action suggests GBP has likely made a short-term bottom at 1.2866 last Thursday (25 Apr). While upward momentum is not exactly strong, the rebound from the low has room to extend higher towards 1.3130. At this stage, the prospect for a move to the April’s peak of 1.3196 is not high. All in, GBP is expected to trade with a positive bias from here and only a break of the 1.2975 ‘key support’ would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.

AUD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: AUD could weaken further but 0.6970 is likely out of reach.

We expected AUD to continue to move lower yesterday but were of the view that “any weakness could be limited to a probe of last week’s 0.6988 low”. While AUD subsequently moved lower, it did not threaten 0.6988 (overnight low of 0.6995). From here, the improved downward momentum suggests that a break of 0.6988 would not be surprising but 0.6970 is likely out of reach (there is another relatively strong level at 0.6950). On the upside, only a move back above 0.7030 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased (0.7020 is already quite a strong level).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: AUD is expected to drift lower to 0.6950.

We have held the same view since last Thursday (25 Apr, spot at 0.7015) wherein only a “NY close below 0.7005 would open up the way for AUD to move to 0.6950”. After about a week of trading sideways to slightly higher, AUD closed at 0.7000 yesterday (-0.22%), the second lowest daily closing this year (AUD closed at 0.6985 on 02 Jan). In other words, AUD is expected to move to 0.6950 from here even though lackluster momentum suggests any decline would be at a slow pace. On the upside, only a break of the 0.7060 ‘key resistance’ (level was at 0.7080 yesterday) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. Looking further ahead, the next support below 0.6950 is closer to 0.6910.

NZD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: NZD could continue to drift lower to the next support at 0.6595.

We expected NZD to “drift lower” yesterday but indicated that a “break of the solid 0.6610 support would come as a surprise”. However, NZD dipped one pip below 0.6610 (low of 0.6609) before ending the day on a soft note. While downward momentum has not improved by much, NZD could continue to drift lower to the next support at 0.6595 before a recovery can be expected. Resistance is at 0.6640 followed by 0.6655.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Short-term bottom in place, NZD has likely moved into a consolidation phase.

NZD tested the bottom of our expected 0.6610/0.6730 sideway-trading range as it touched 0.6609. The underlying tone has clearly softened even though it is unclear at this stage whether NZD is ready to challenge last week’s 0.6581 low. For now, we continue to hold the view that 0.6581 is a short-term bottom and that the current movement is part of a consolidation phase. However, a NY close 0.6595 would greatly increase the odds for further NZD weakness to 0.6550.

USD/JPY:

24-HOUR VIEW: USD is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 111.25/111.75 range.

We highlighted yesterday “USD could move above the overnight high of 111.61 but a move beyond 111.85 appears highly unlikely”. USD subsequently rose to 111.66 before easing off to and traded sideways. Momentum indicators are mostly neutral now which suggest USD is likely to trade sideways for today, expected to be within a 111.25/111.75 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: USD has likely moved into a consolidation phase. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

We have held the same view since last Friday (26 Apr, spot at 111.65) wherein USD is deemed to “have moved into a consolidation phase” and is expected to trade sideways within a broad 111.00/112.30. USD tested the bottom of the range yesterday (01 May) but rebounded strongly after touching 111.03. The price action reinforces our view and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways within the range mentioned above for now.

Source:efxdata

EUR/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: EUR is not ready to recover but any further weakness is likely limited to a probe of 1.1145.

Yesterday, we were of the view that the “weakness in EUR could test 1.1170 first before a recovery can be expected”. While EUR dipped to 1.1169 during late-NY hours, the current soft patch in EUR is not showing sign of stabilizing. In other words, EUR is not ready to recover just yet. That said, lackluster momentum suggests any further weakness is likely limited to a probe of 1.1145 (the next support 1.1110 is unlikely to come into the picture). Resistance is at 1.1195 followed by 1.1220.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: EUR is expected to trade sideways. There is not much to add to the update from yesterday.

As highlighted, the rapid pull-back from the 1.1265 trend-line resistance and the inability to move below 1.1100 last week (low of 1.1110) suggest the current movement is likely part of a consolidation phase. In other words, EUR is expected to trade sideways for now, likely between the two strong levels of 1.1110 and 1.1265. For now, there is no early indication on which level is more ‘vulnerable’.

GBP/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: GBP is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.3000/1.3080 range.

GBP traded sideways between 1.3019 and 1.3083 yesterday, narrower than our expected range of 1.3010/1.3090. While the current movement is still viewed as part of a consolidation phase, the weakened underlying tone suggests a lower range of 1.3000/1.3080.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Rebound in GBP has scope to extend to 1.3130. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

The strong advance in GBP over the past couple of days took out several strong resistance levels with ease. The price action suggests GBP has likely made a short-term bottom at 1.2866 last Thursday (25 Apr). While upward momentum is not exactly strong, the rebound from the low has room to extend higher towards 1.3130. At this stage, the prospect for a move to the April’s peak of 1.3196 is not high. All in, GBP is expected to trade with a positive bias from here and only a break of the 1.2975 ‘key support’ would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.

AUD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: AUD could weaken further but 0.6970 is likely out of reach.

We expected AUD to continue to move lower yesterday but were of the view that “any weakness could be limited to a probe of last week’s 0.6988 low”. While AUD subsequently moved lower, it did not threaten 0.6988 (overnight low of 0.6995). From here, the improved downward momentum suggests that a break of 0.6988 would not be surprising but 0.6970 is likely out of reach (there is another relatively strong level at 0.6950). On the upside, only a move back above 0.7030 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased (0.7020 is already quite a strong level).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: AUD is expected to drift lower to 0.6950.

We have held the same view since last Thursday (25 Apr, spot at 0.7015) wherein only a “NY close below 0.7005 would open up the way for AUD to move to 0.6950”. After about a week of trading sideways to slightly higher, AUD closed at 0.7000 yesterday (-0.22%), the second lowest daily closing this year (AUD closed at 0.6985 on 02 Jan). In other words, AUD is expected to move to 0.6950 from here even though lackluster momentum suggests any decline would be at a slow pace. On the upside, only a break of the 0.7060 ‘key resistance’ (level was at 0.7080 yesterday) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. Looking further ahead, the next support below 0.6950 is closer to 0.6910.

NZD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: NZD could continue to drift lower to the next support at 0.6595.

We expected NZD to “drift lower” yesterday but indicated that a “break of the solid 0.6610 support would come as a surprise”. However, NZD dipped one pip below 0.6610 (low of 0.6609) before ending the day on a soft note. While downward momentum has not improved by much, NZD could continue to drift lower to the next support at 0.6595 before a recovery can be expected. Resistance is at 0.6640 followed by 0.6655.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Short-term bottom in place, NZD has likely moved into a consolidation phase.

NZD tested the bottom of our expected 0.6610/0.6730 sideway-trading range as it touched 0.6609. The underlying tone has clearly softened even though it is unclear at this stage whether NZD is ready to challenge last week’s 0.6581 low. For now, we continue to hold the view that 0.6581 is a short-term bottom and that the current movement is part of a consolidation phase. However, a NY close 0.6595 would greatly increase the odds for further NZD weakness to 0.6550.

USD/JPY:

24-HOUR VIEW: USD is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 111.25/111.75 range.

We highlighted yesterday “USD could move above the overnight high of 111.61 but a move beyond 111.85 appears highly unlikely”. USD subsequently rose to 111.66 before easing off to and traded sideways. Momentum indicators are mostly neutral now which suggest USD is likely to trade sideways for today, expected to be within a 111.25/111.75 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: USD has likely moved into a consolidation phase. No change in view from yesterday, see reproduced update below.

We have held the same view since last Friday (26 Apr, spot at 111.65) wherein USD is deemed to “have moved into a consolidation phase” and is expected to trade sideways within a broad 111.00/112.30. USD tested the bottom of the range yesterday (01 May) but rebounded strongly after touching 111.03. The price action reinforces our view and we continue to expect USD to trade sideways within the range mentioned above for now.

Source:efxdata

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Forex Week ahead – Focus shifts east
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Market Analysis
Forex Today: Fed-fueled dollar dominates, GBP/USD fears BOE's Super Thursday, and more NFP hints eyed
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Market Analysis
USD/JPY sits near 2-month tops, comfortably above 109.00 handle
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Market Analysis
BoE and global PMIs amongst market movers today
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Market Analysis
USD/JPY: a test of 109.00 stays on the table
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Market Analysis
Fed: Market currently fully pricing a 25bps cut – Deutsche Bank
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Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD -31.07.2019
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Market Analysis
Gold holds steady near $1425 area, focus remains on FOMC/US-China trade talks
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Market Analysis
BoJ: No fireworks offered
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Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY - 30.07.2019
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