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Forex Tech Targets

Forex_tech-Targets-06.03.2019-FXPIG

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR has moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways.

There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (04 Mar, spot at 1.1375). As highlighted, “the recent mild upward pressure has eased and from here, we expect EUR to trade sideways, likely between 1.1310 and 1.1425”. However, the bottom of the expected range at 1.1310 was ‘tested’ sooner than anticipated as EUR dropped to an overnight low of 1.1307. For now, we continue to hold the view that EUR is trading sideways but after yesterday’s price action, a clear break of 1.1310 would not be surprising. That said, any further weakness is still deemed as part of a ‘broader range’ and we see low odds of EUR breaking last month’s bottom near 1.1230 (note that there is another strong support at 1.1270).

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Short-term top in place; GBP is expected to trade sideways.

GBP cracked our 1.3170 ‘key support’ on the second attempt (low of 1.3172 last Friday, 01 Mar) as it hit 1.3167 during NY hours. The break of the key level indicates that the ‘positive’ phase in GBP that started about 2 weeks ago (20 Feb, spot at 1.3070) has ended. To put it another way, the 1.3351 peak registered last Wednesday (27 Feb) is deemed as a short-term top (we previously expected further GBP strength but were of the view that 1.3365 may not come into the picture so soon). From here, GBP has likely moved into a correction/consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways for the next 1 to 2 weeks. However, the immediate bias is tilted to the downside but any weakness from here is viewed as part of 1.3070/1.3300 range and a sustained decline in GBP is not expected

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): AUD has moved into a consolidation phase. No change in view from yesterday.

There is not much to add to last Friday’s (01 Mar) update. As highlighted, despite the uptick in downward momentum, it is too soon to expect the start of sustained directional move in AUD. We view the current price action as ‘part of a consolidation phase’ and expect AUD to trade sideways within a 0.7055/0.7170 range. Looking forward, only a break of last month’s low near 0.7055 would suggest AUD is ready to move lower in a sustained manner.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): NZD is expected to trade sideways. No change in view from yesterday.

There is not much to add to last Friday’s update (01 Mar, spot at 0.6815). Upward momentum has waned as NZD failed to break clearly above 0.6900 convincingly. From here, NZD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 0.6740 and 0.6870.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD is expected to advance but may find it difficult to break solid 112.00/20 zone.

After 3 straight days of relatively strong gains, USD traded in a quiet manner yesterday and registered an ‘inside trading day’ before ending slightly lower at 111.74 (-0.14%). The price action reinforces our view that “USD is expected to advance but may find it difficult to break the solid 112.00/20 zone” (see update from last Friday, 01 Mar, spot at 111.40). That said, USD is expected to continue to stay underpinned as long as the ‘key support’ at 111.10 is intact (level was at 110.95 yesterday). Looking ahead, a clear break of the strong resistance zone would suggest that USD is ready to tackle at 112.60. For now, the prospect for such a scenario is deemed as ‘medium’.

Source:efxdata

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR has moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways.

There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (04 Mar, spot at 1.1375). As highlighted, “the recent mild upward pressure has eased and from here, we expect EUR to trade sideways, likely between 1.1310 and 1.1425”. However, the bottom of the expected range at 1.1310 was ‘tested’ sooner than anticipated as EUR dropped to an overnight low of 1.1307. For now, we continue to hold the view that EUR is trading sideways but after yesterday’s price action, a clear break of 1.1310 would not be surprising. That said, any further weakness is still deemed as part of a ‘broader range’ and we see low odds of EUR breaking last month’s bottom near 1.1230 (note that there is another strong support at 1.1270).

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Short-term top in place; GBP is expected to trade sideways.

GBP cracked our 1.3170 ‘key support’ on the second attempt (low of 1.3172 last Friday, 01 Mar) as it hit 1.3167 during NY hours. The break of the key level indicates that the ‘positive’ phase in GBP that started about 2 weeks ago (20 Feb, spot at 1.3070) has ended. To put it another way, the 1.3351 peak registered last Wednesday (27 Feb) is deemed as a short-term top (we previously expected further GBP strength but were of the view that 1.3365 may not come into the picture so soon). From here, GBP has likely moved into a correction/consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways for the next 1 to 2 weeks. However, the immediate bias is tilted to the downside but any weakness from here is viewed as part of 1.3070/1.3300 range and a sustained decline in GBP is not expected

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): AUD has moved into a consolidation phase. No change in view from yesterday.

There is not much to add to last Friday’s (01 Mar) update. As highlighted, despite the uptick in downward momentum, it is too soon to expect the start of sustained directional move in AUD. We view the current price action as ‘part of a consolidation phase’ and expect AUD to trade sideways within a 0.7055/0.7170 range. Looking forward, only a break of last month’s low near 0.7055 would suggest AUD is ready to move lower in a sustained manner.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): NZD is expected to trade sideways. No change in view from yesterday.

There is not much to add to last Friday’s update (01 Mar, spot at 0.6815). Upward momentum has waned as NZD failed to break clearly above 0.6900 convincingly. From here, NZD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 0.6740 and 0.6870.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): USD is expected to advance but may find it difficult to break solid 112.00/20 zone.

After 3 straight days of relatively strong gains, USD traded in a quiet manner yesterday and registered an ‘inside trading day’ before ending slightly lower at 111.74 (-0.14%). The price action reinforces our view that “USD is expected to advance but may find it difficult to break the solid 112.00/20 zone” (see update from last Friday, 01 Mar, spot at 111.40). That said, USD is expected to continue to stay underpinned as long as the ‘key support’ at 111.10 is intact (level was at 110.95 yesterday). Looking ahead, a clear break of the strong resistance zone would suggest that USD is ready to tackle at 112.60. For now, the prospect for such a scenario is deemed as ‘medium’.

Source:efxdata

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