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FOREX Tech Targets

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Diminished odds for a break of 1.1200.

EUR tested but failed to break the 1.1350 ‘key resistance’ yesterday (high of 1.1347). The price action has further diminished the odds for EUR to crack 1.1200 (we were of the view a break of the major 1.1200 level could lead to a rapid drop in EUR). As indicated yesterday (14 Nov, spot at 1.1305), a break of 1.1350 would suggest EUR has found a short-term bottom near 1.1215 (low seen earlier this week) and EUR would then likely to trade sideways to slightly higher (within an overall broad range). In order to revive the rapidly waning downward pressure, EUR has to move and stay below 1.1260 within these 1 to 2 days or a break of the ‘key resistance’ would not be surprising.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP is likely trading within a broad range. No change in view.

Brexit optimism sent GBP rocketing and our caution yesterday that “the risk of a break of 1.2800 has increased” appears to be premature. In other words, the current price action is still viewed as part of a broad consolidation range, likely within the 1.2800/1.3080 range indicated on Monday (12 Nov, spot at 1.2935). Looking forward, the outlook for GBP is unclear and a lot will obviously hinge on the outcome of Brexit. For the next several weeks/months, GBP could continue to whipsaw and only a break below the August’s low near 1.2660 or above the September’s peak near 1.3300 would suggest the start of a more sustained and directional move

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): October’s peak of 0.7315 is back in sight.

We have been “anticipating further AUD strength to 0.7315” since last Thursday (08 Nov, spot at 0.7275) but after the relatively sharp pull-back from 0.7303, we cautioned on Tuesday (13 Nov, spot at 0.7175), the “odds for further AUD strength have diminished”. The ‘key support’ at 0.7150 barely held (low of 0.7164 on Tuesday) but the strong surge just a while ago after the release of better than expected Australia job data suggests 0.7315 is back in sight. However, upward momentum is not as strong as preferred and while AUD could move to 0.7315, it may find it difficult to maintain a toehold above this level (next resistance is at 0.7355). For now, there is no change to the ‘key support’ at 0.7150 but this level is expected to rise quickly over the next few days.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Further NZD strength is not ruled out but 0.6850 is likely out of reach.

The strong rebound from Monday’s (12 Nov) 0.6706 low came as a surprise. While the rapid rebound appears to be running ahead of itself, further NZD strength is not ruled out. However, the major 0.6850 resistance is likely out of reach this time round. Support is at 0.6745 but only a break of the 0.6706 low would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Diminished odds for further USD strength.

We indicated yesterday (14 Nov, spot at 113.80) “upward momentum has deteriorated and a prolonged consolidation around current level would quickly increase the risk of a short-term top”. Instead of consolidating, USD dipped to a low of 113.28, not far from the 113.20 ‘key support’. The odds for USD to test last month’s 114.54 peak have clearly diminished and unless there is a NY closing above 114.05, a break of 113.20 would not be surprising. Looking ahead, a breach of 113.20 would not change the current neutral outlook but suggest USD has moved back into a sideway-trading phase.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Diminished odds for a break of 1.1200.

EUR tested but failed to break the 1.1350 ‘key resistance’ yesterday (high of 1.1347). The price action has further diminished the odds for EUR to crack 1.1200 (we were of the view a break of the major 1.1200 level could lead to a rapid drop in EUR). As indicated yesterday (14 Nov, spot at 1.1305), a break of 1.1350 would suggest EUR has found a short-term bottom near 1.1215 (low seen earlier this week) and EUR would then likely to trade sideways to slightly higher (within an overall broad range). In order to revive the rapidly waning downward pressure, EUR has to move and stay below 1.1260 within these 1 to 2 days or a break of the ‘key resistance’ would not be surprising.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): GBP is likely trading within a broad range. No change in view.

Brexit optimism sent GBP rocketing and our caution yesterday that “the risk of a break of 1.2800 has increased” appears to be premature. In other words, the current price action is still viewed as part of a broad consolidation range, likely within the 1.2800/1.3080 range indicated on Monday (12 Nov, spot at 1.2935). Looking forward, the outlook for GBP is unclear and a lot will obviously hinge on the outcome of Brexit. For the next several weeks/months, GBP could continue to whipsaw and only a break below the August’s low near 1.2660 or above the September’s peak near 1.3300 would suggest the start of a more sustained and directional move

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): October’s peak of 0.7315 is back in sight.

We have been “anticipating further AUD strength to 0.7315” since last Thursday (08 Nov, spot at 0.7275) but after the relatively sharp pull-back from 0.7303, we cautioned on Tuesday (13 Nov, spot at 0.7175), the “odds for further AUD strength have diminished”. The ‘key support’ at 0.7150 barely held (low of 0.7164 on Tuesday) but the strong surge just a while ago after the release of better than expected Australia job data suggests 0.7315 is back in sight. However, upward momentum is not as strong as preferred and while AUD could move to 0.7315, it may find it difficult to maintain a toehold above this level (next resistance is at 0.7355). For now, there is no change to the ‘key support’ at 0.7150 but this level is expected to rise quickly over the next few days.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Further NZD strength is not ruled out but 0.6850 is likely out of reach.

The strong rebound from Monday’s (12 Nov) 0.6706 low came as a surprise. While the rapid rebound appears to be running ahead of itself, further NZD strength is not ruled out. However, the major 0.6850 resistance is likely out of reach this time round. Support is at 0.6745 but only a break of the 0.6706 low would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Diminished odds for further USD strength.

We indicated yesterday (14 Nov, spot at 113.80) “upward momentum has deteriorated and a prolonged consolidation around current level would quickly increase the risk of a short-term top”. Instead of consolidating, USD dipped to a low of 113.28, not far from the 113.20 ‘key support’. The odds for USD to test last month’s 114.54 peak have clearly diminished and unless there is a NY closing above 114.05, a break of 113.20 would not be surprising. Looking ahead, a breach of 113.20 would not change the current neutral outlook but suggest USD has moved back into a sideway-trading phase.

Source: efxdata.com

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