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Bulls-and-bears-Forex_FXPIG_21.05.2019

EUR/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: EUR is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.1150/1.1190 range. EUR rebounded after touching a 2-week low of 1.1148 yesterday. The combination of dissipating downward momentum and oversold conditions suggests limited downside risk for now. From here, EUR is deemed to have moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways to slightly higher, likely within a 1.1150/1.1190 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Focus is at 1.2670. We indicated last Friday (17 May, spot at 1.2795) that a “NY close below 1.2775 could lead to acceleration lower to 1.2670”. GBP subsequently cracked 1.2775 and plunged to 1.2714 before ending the week down by a whopping -2.20%, the largest 1-week decline since Oct 2017. From here, the focus is at 1.2670 even though shorter-term conditions are severely oversold any further weakness would likely be at a slower pace. In view of the oversold conditions, the prospect for further extension to next support at 1.2630 is not that high for now. On the upside, the ‘key resistance’ has moved lower to 1.2840 from 1.2900.

GBP/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: GBP is expected to continue to trade sideways, likely within a 1.2710/1.2760 range. GBP consolidated its steep loss from last week as it traded in a relatively narrow range of 1.2715/1.2757 yesterday before settling at 1.2721. The consolidation phase appears incomplete and GBP is expected to continue to trade sideways for now, likely within a 1.2710/1.2760 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Focus is at 1.2670. We indicated last Friday (17 May, spot at 1.2795) that a “NY close below 1.2775 could lead to acceleration lower to 1.2670”. GBP subsequently cracked 1.2775 and plunged to 1.2714 before ending the week down by a whopping -2.20%, the largest 1-week decline since Oct 2017. From here, the focus is at 1.2670 even though shorter-term conditions are severely oversold any further weakness would likely be at a slower pace. In view of the oversold conditions, the prospect for further extension to next support at 1.2630 is not that high for now. On the upside, the ‘key resistance’ has moved lower to 1.2840 from 1.2900.

AUD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: AUD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 0.6895 and 0.6945. AUD gapped up upon opening yesterday and subsequently held on to its gain as it traded sideways. While the downside risk appears to be limited, it is too early to expect a sustained rebound. AUD is more likely to consolidate and trade sideways for now, likely between 0.6895 and 0.6945.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Prospect for a move to 0.6835 has diminished. AUD dropped to a 3-1/2 low of 0.6865 last Friday (17 May) before opening with a gap higher yesterday (20 May). While the ‘key resistance’ for our negative phase at 0.6975 is still intact, the strong bounce suggests AUD may not be ready to challenge 0.6835 just yet. That said, only a move above the 0.6975 ‘key resistance’ would indicate that a short-term bottom is in place. In order to reinvigorate the flagging momentum, AUD has to move and stay below 0.6895 within these 1 to 2 days or the prospect for a move to 0.6835 would diminish further. To put it another way, the negative phase that started in late April could be close to ending unless AUD can move and stay below 0.6895 within these few days.

NZD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW :NZD is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 0.6525/0.6560 range. NZD opened on a strong note yesterday and subsequently traded sideways. The current price action is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and NZD is expected to continue to trade sideways for now, likely within a 0.6525/0.6560 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: NZD is expected to test the rising weekly trend-line at 0.6500. No change in view from last Friday, see reproduced update below. Note that NZD touched 0.6514 during late-NY hours on Friday but opened on a strong note yesterday. We have maintained the same narrative since last Wednesday (08 May, spot at 0.6560) wherein NZD is expected to “test the rising weekly trend-line at 0.6500”. After trading sideways for several days, NZD finally staged a relatively strong decline of -0.41% yesterday (close at 0.6536). From here, the risk of a break of 0.6500 has increased and if NZD were to move clearly below this level, the focus would then shift to 0.6465 followed by the 2018 low near 0.6425. All in, there is no early sign that the current negative phase that started earlier this month would end any time soon. Only a move above 0.6600 (‘key resistance’ previously at 0.6630) would indicate that a short-term bottom is in place.

USD/JPY:

24-HOUR VIEW: A retest of 110.30 would not be surprising. USD touched 110.31 early yesterday but eased off quickly. Despite the pull-back, the underlying tone remains positive and another test of the 110.30 level would not be surprising. That said, a sustained move beyond this level appears unlikely (next resistance is at 110.50). On the downside, only a move below 109.70 would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased (minor support is at 109.90).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: USD has moved into a sideway-trading phase. We highlighted last Friday that the negative phase in “USD appears to be close to ending” and added, “USD is poised to move into a sideway-trading phase”. USD subsequently took out the ‘key resistance’ at 110.10, which indicates that the current movement is the early stages of sideway-trading phase. That said, the immediate bias is tilted to the upside but for now, any USD strength is unlikely to move significantly above the top of the expected 109.40/110.80 range.

Source:efxdata

EUR/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: EUR is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.1150/1.1190 range. EUR rebounded after touching a 2-week low of 1.1148 yesterday. The combination of dissipating downward momentum and oversold conditions suggests limited downside risk for now. From here, EUR is deemed to have moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways to slightly higher, likely within a 1.1150/1.1190 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Focus is at 1.2670. We indicated last Friday (17 May, spot at 1.2795) that a “NY close below 1.2775 could lead to acceleration lower to 1.2670”. GBP subsequently cracked 1.2775 and plunged to 1.2714 before ending the week down by a whopping -2.20%, the largest 1-week decline since Oct 2017. From here, the focus is at 1.2670 even though shorter-term conditions are severely oversold any further weakness would likely be at a slower pace. In view of the oversold conditions, the prospect for further extension to next support at 1.2630 is not that high for now. On the upside, the ‘key resistance’ has moved lower to 1.2840 from 1.2900.

GBP/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: GBP is expected to continue to trade sideways, likely within a 1.2710/1.2760 range. GBP consolidated its steep loss from last week as it traded in a relatively narrow range of 1.2715/1.2757 yesterday before settling at 1.2721. The consolidation phase appears incomplete and GBP is expected to continue to trade sideways for now, likely within a 1.2710/1.2760 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Focus is at 1.2670. We indicated last Friday (17 May, spot at 1.2795) that a “NY close below 1.2775 could lead to acceleration lower to 1.2670”. GBP subsequently cracked 1.2775 and plunged to 1.2714 before ending the week down by a whopping -2.20%, the largest 1-week decline since Oct 2017. From here, the focus is at 1.2670 even though shorter-term conditions are severely oversold any further weakness would likely be at a slower pace. In view of the oversold conditions, the prospect for further extension to next support at 1.2630 is not that high for now. On the upside, the ‘key resistance’ has moved lower to 1.2840 from 1.2900.

AUD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW: AUD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 0.6895 and 0.6945. AUD gapped up upon opening yesterday and subsequently held on to its gain as it traded sideways. While the downside risk appears to be limited, it is too early to expect a sustained rebound. AUD is more likely to consolidate and trade sideways for now, likely between 0.6895 and 0.6945.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Prospect for a move to 0.6835 has diminished. AUD dropped to a 3-1/2 low of 0.6865 last Friday (17 May) before opening with a gap higher yesterday (20 May). While the ‘key resistance’ for our negative phase at 0.6975 is still intact, the strong bounce suggests AUD may not be ready to challenge 0.6835 just yet. That said, only a move above the 0.6975 ‘key resistance’ would indicate that a short-term bottom is in place. In order to reinvigorate the flagging momentum, AUD has to move and stay below 0.6895 within these 1 to 2 days or the prospect for a move to 0.6835 would diminish further. To put it another way, the negative phase that started in late April could be close to ending unless AUD can move and stay below 0.6895 within these few days.

NZD/USD:

24-HOUR VIEW :NZD is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 0.6525/0.6560 range. NZD opened on a strong note yesterday and subsequently traded sideways. The current price action is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and NZD is expected to continue to trade sideways for now, likely within a 0.6525/0.6560 range.

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: NZD is expected to test the rising weekly trend-line at 0.6500. No change in view from last Friday, see reproduced update below. Note that NZD touched 0.6514 during late-NY hours on Friday but opened on a strong note yesterday. We have maintained the same narrative since last Wednesday (08 May, spot at 0.6560) wherein NZD is expected to “test the rising weekly trend-line at 0.6500”. After trading sideways for several days, NZD finally staged a relatively strong decline of -0.41% yesterday (close at 0.6536). From here, the risk of a break of 0.6500 has increased and if NZD were to move clearly below this level, the focus would then shift to 0.6465 followed by the 2018 low near 0.6425. All in, there is no early sign that the current negative phase that started earlier this month would end any time soon. Only a move above 0.6600 (‘key resistance’ previously at 0.6630) would indicate that a short-term bottom is in place.

USD/JPY:

24-HOUR VIEW: A retest of 110.30 would not be surprising. USD touched 110.31 early yesterday but eased off quickly. Despite the pull-back, the underlying tone remains positive and another test of the 110.30 level would not be surprising. That said, a sustained move beyond this level appears unlikely (next resistance is at 110.50). On the downside, only a move below 109.70 would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased (minor support is at 109.90).

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: USD has moved into a sideway-trading phase. We highlighted last Friday that the negative phase in “USD appears to be close to ending” and added, “USD is poised to move into a sideway-trading phase”. USD subsequently took out the ‘key resistance’ at 110.10, which indicates that the current movement is the early stages of sideway-trading phase. That said, the immediate bias is tilted to the upside but for now, any USD strength is unlikely to move significantly above the top of the expected 109.40/110.80 range.

Source:efxdata

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Market Analysis
JPY Futures: looks neutral/bullish near-term
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Market Analysis
ECB’s Lagarde: We face a global environment that is marked by uncertainty
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Market Analysis
Breaking: EUR/USD jumps to 1.1085 as German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI surprises positively with 43.8
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Market Analysis
EUR/USD clings to gains near 1.1080 ahead of ECB
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Market Analysis
Gold flirting with session lows, around $1470 region
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Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trump's trade deal in trouble, Boris bounces back, EUR/USD awaits ECB Minutes
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Market Analysis
Gold Price News & Forecast: XAU/USD $1,475 continues to cap upside
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Market Analysis
FOMC minutes: Key event ahead
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Market Analysis
Forex Today: US Senate's HK bill weighs on sentiment, Corbyn crashing the pound, Fed minutes awaits
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Market Analysis
USD/JPY technical lines drawn as trade uncertainty persists – Confluence Detector
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