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FOREX Tech Targets

Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 25.02.2019

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Immediate risk is on the upside but too soon to expect a sustained rise in EUR.

EUR spent another day ‘going nowhere’ as it closed little changed last Friday (NY close of 1.1341, +0.06%). Despite the lackluster price action, we continue to see scope for EUR to move higher. However, as highlighted in recent updates, it is too soon to expect a sustained rise in EUR and any advance is expected to struggle to break above 1.1440. On a short-term basis, 1.1410 is already quite a strong level. On the downside, EUR has to move below 1.1270 in order to indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Outlook for GBP is positive but expect 1.3160 to offer solid resistance.

GBP dropped briefly to a low of 1.2970 last Friday before rebounding strongly to end the day slightly higher (1.3056, +0.14%). The 1.2970 low was not far above our ‘key support’ at 1.2960. As highlighted since last Tuesday (20 Feb, spot at 1.3070), the outlook for GBP is deemed as positive as long as the ‘key support’ is intact. However, while we expect GBP to strengthen, 1.3160 is acting as a solid resistance and for now, the prospect for a break of this level is not high (this level is followed by another solid resistance near 1.3220, the high in late-January).

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Risk is on the downside but too early to expect a sustained decline in AUD.

After the outsized decline in AUD last Thursday (21 Feb), we indicated in our Friday (22 Feb, spot at 0.7100) update that the “risk is the downside but it is too early to expect a sustained decline”. That said, the subsequent strong rebound from a low of 0.7082 on Friday came as a surprise. However, only a break of the 0.7170 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. A break of 0.7170 would suggest that AUD is likely to trade sideways in the coming days. Meanwhile, we continue to see downside risk in AUD but the prospect for further AUD weakness has clearly diminished.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): NZD is expected to trade sideways.

We indicated last Friday (22 Feb, spot at 0.6810) that NZD is “ready to test the bottom of the expected 0.6750/0.6900 range in the coming days”. However, the quick drop to 0.6758 and the equally rapid rebound from the low came as a surprise. While we continue expect NZD to trade sideways (same view since 13 Feb, spot at 0.6810), the strong daily closing in NY (0.6843, +0.60%) has increased the risk of a break of 0.6900. A break of this level this level would suggest NZD is ready to tackle the 0.6942 high seen earlier this month. This scenario seems likely if NZD can hold above 0.6815 within the next few days.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Diminished odds for further USD strength.

USD traded within a narrow range last Friday and ended the day unchanged in NY (110.68, 0.00%). We have held the same view that there is room for further USD strength even though the odds for such a scenario have diminished. The muted price action over the past few trading days offers no additional clue. For now, as long as 110.25 is not taken out, we continue see chance for a higher USD but time appears to be running out (further consolidation would suggest USD could continue to trade sideways for a protracted period).

Source:exfdata

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Immediate risk is on the upside but too soon to expect a sustained rise in EUR.

EUR spent another day ‘going nowhere’ as it closed little changed last Friday (NY close of 1.1341, +0.06%). Despite the lackluster price action, we continue to see scope for EUR to move higher. However, as highlighted in recent updates, it is too soon to expect a sustained rise in EUR and any advance is expected to struggle to break above 1.1440. On a short-term basis, 1.1410 is already quite a strong level. On the downside, EUR has to move below 1.1270 in order to indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): Outlook for GBP is positive but expect 1.3160 to offer solid resistance.

GBP dropped briefly to a low of 1.2970 last Friday before rebounding strongly to end the day slightly higher (1.3056, +0.14%). The 1.2970 low was not far above our ‘key support’ at 1.2960. As highlighted since last Tuesday (20 Feb, spot at 1.3070), the outlook for GBP is deemed as positive as long as the ‘key support’ is intact. However, while we expect GBP to strengthen, 1.3160 is acting as a solid resistance and for now, the prospect for a break of this level is not high (this level is followed by another solid resistance near 1.3220, the high in late-January).

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Risk is on the downside but too early to expect a sustained decline in AUD.

After the outsized decline in AUD last Thursday (21 Feb), we indicated in our Friday (22 Feb, spot at 0.7100) update that the “risk is the downside but it is too early to expect a sustained decline”. That said, the subsequent strong rebound from a low of 0.7082 on Friday came as a surprise. However, only a break of the 0.7170 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. A break of 0.7170 would suggest that AUD is likely to trade sideways in the coming days. Meanwhile, we continue to see downside risk in AUD but the prospect for further AUD weakness has clearly diminished.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 07 Dec 18, 0.6880): NZD is expected to trade sideways.

We indicated last Friday (22 Feb, spot at 0.6810) that NZD is “ready to test the bottom of the expected 0.6750/0.6900 range in the coming days”. However, the quick drop to 0.6758 and the equally rapid rebound from the low came as a surprise. While we continue expect NZD to trade sideways (same view since 13 Feb, spot at 0.6810), the strong daily closing in NY (0.6843, +0.60%) has increased the risk of a break of 0.6900. A break of this level this level would suggest NZD is ready to tackle the 0.6942 high seen earlier this month. This scenario seems likely if NZD can hold above 0.6815 within the next few days.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Diminished odds for further USD strength.

USD traded within a narrow range last Friday and ended the day unchanged in NY (110.68, 0.00%). We have held the same view that there is room for further USD strength even though the odds for such a scenario have diminished. The muted price action over the past few trading days offers no additional clue. For now, as long as 110.25 is not taken out, we continue see chance for a higher USD but time appears to be running out (further consolidation would suggest USD could continue to trade sideways for a protracted period).

Source:exfdata

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