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FOREX TECH TARGETS

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR is still weak, but prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high.

EUR closed on a soft note yesterday (NY close of 1.1344, -0.23%) but last week’s 1.1332 low is still intact. After showing signs of waning, short-term downward momentum has picked up again. For now, we are holding on to the same view that “EUR is still weak; the prospect for sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high”. However, the odds for a break of 1.1297 has improved and would continue to improve unless EUR can break above 1.1415 (‘key resistance’ previously at 1.1450) within these 1 to 2 days. In other words, we are near an ‘inflection’ point wherein the price action in the next couple of days would determine whether EUR would continue to head south in the coming days (and possibly weeks) or stabilize to consolidate and trade sideways.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): More than even odds for a break of 1.2662 year’s low.

After trading in a relatively quiet manner for a couple of days, GBP staged a sudden and sharp decline that easily cracked the 1.2750 support (in reaction to S&P dire warnings in the event of a no-deal Brexit). While we have held a ‘negative’ view on GBP for more than a week (see update on 19 Oct, spot at 1.3020), we previously apportioned low odds for a sustained break of 1.2750. After yesterday’s price action, the focus has shifted to the year-to-date low at 1.2662. In view of the resurgence in downward momentum, the odds for a break of this level are more than even. All in, GBP is expected to stay under pressure until the ‘key resistance’ at 1.2820 is taken out (level was at 1.2890 yesterday). Looking ahead, a clear break of 1.2660 would suggest GBP has entered a bearish phase and could extend its weakness to 1.2590, possibly 1.2500.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Prospect for a move to 0.7000 is not high.

While AUD gained +0.69% yesterday (NY close of 0.7106), it is too early to expect a sustained recovery. As highlighted on Monday (29 Oct, spot at 0.7095), only a break of 0.7140 would suggest the current mild downward pressure has eased (overnight high has been 0.7122). Meanwhile, the near-term bias is still tilted to the downside even though the prospect for a move to the major 0.7000 level is not high. Looking ahead, a break of 0.7140 would suggest the start of a recovery phase that could potentially extend to 0.7200.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Still sideways albeit within a wider range.

NZD hit a high of 0.6572 yesterday before ending the day on a strong note (NY close of 0.6553, +0.47%). The high was not far from the top of our expected 0.6460/0.6580 consolidation range. For now, the risk of a clear break of 0.6580 is not high but after yesterday’s price action, it has clearly improved. In other words, while we continue to expect NZD to trade sideways between 0.6460 and 0.6580, we would not be surprise with a break of 0.6580. Looking ahead, a break of 0.6580 would indicate that NZD is ready to tackle the month-to-date high at 0.6620.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Scope for USD to test 113.70 but unclear if up-move can be sustained.

While we indicated yesterday “the odds for further USD weakness have diminished”, the subsequent strong rally in USD that hit a 3-week high of 113.09 was clearly not expected (note that USD extended its gain after NY close). Short-term momentum is clearly strong but at this stage, it is unclear to us whether USD can maintain the current strength in the days ahead. From here, we see scope for USD to test the 113.70 resistance but the probability of a sustained move above this level is not high for now. All in, USD is expected to stay underpinned as long as the ‘key support’ at 112.60 is intact.

Source: efxdata.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR is still weak, but prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high.

EUR closed on a soft note yesterday (NY close of 1.1344, -0.23%) but last week’s 1.1332 low is still intact. After showing signs of waning, short-term downward momentum has picked up again. For now, we are holding on to the same view that “EUR is still weak; the prospect for sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high”. However, the odds for a break of 1.1297 has improved and would continue to improve unless EUR can break above 1.1415 (‘key resistance’ previously at 1.1450) within these 1 to 2 days. In other words, we are near an ‘inflection’ point wherein the price action in the next couple of days would determine whether EUR would continue to head south in the coming days (and possibly weeks) or stabilize to consolidate and trade sideways.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, spot at 1.2795): More than even odds for a break of 1.2662 year’s low.

After trading in a relatively quiet manner for a couple of days, GBP staged a sudden and sharp decline that easily cracked the 1.2750 support (in reaction to S&P dire warnings in the event of a no-deal Brexit). While we have held a ‘negative’ view on GBP for more than a week (see update on 19 Oct, spot at 1.3020), we previously apportioned low odds for a sustained break of 1.2750. After yesterday’s price action, the focus has shifted to the year-to-date low at 1.2662. In view of the resurgence in downward momentum, the odds for a break of this level are more than even. All in, GBP is expected to stay under pressure until the ‘key resistance’ at 1.2820 is taken out (level was at 1.2890 yesterday). Looking ahead, a clear break of 1.2660 would suggest GBP has entered a bearish phase and could extend its weakness to 1.2590, possibly 1.2500.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Sep 18, spot at 0.7170): Prospect for a move to 0.7000 is not high.

While AUD gained +0.69% yesterday (NY close of 0.7106), it is too early to expect a sustained recovery. As highlighted on Monday (29 Oct, spot at 0.7095), only a break of 0.7140 would suggest the current mild downward pressure has eased (overnight high has been 0.7122). Meanwhile, the near-term bias is still tilted to the downside even though the prospect for a move to the major 0.7000 level is not high. Looking ahead, a break of 0.7140 would suggest the start of a recovery phase that could potentially extend to 0.7200.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 20 Aug 18, 0.6625): Still sideways albeit within a wider range.

NZD hit a high of 0.6572 yesterday before ending the day on a strong note (NY close of 0.6553, +0.47%). The high was not far from the top of our expected 0.6460/0.6580 consolidation range. For now, the risk of a clear break of 0.6580 is not high but after yesterday’s price action, it has clearly improved. In other words, while we continue to expect NZD to trade sideways between 0.6460 and 0.6580, we would not be surprise with a break of 0.6580. Looking ahead, a break of 0.6580 would indicate that NZD is ready to tackle the month-to-date high at 0.6620.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 09 Oct 18, 113.10): Scope for USD to test 113.70 but unclear if up-move can be sustained.

While we indicated yesterday “the odds for further USD weakness have diminished”, the subsequent strong rally in USD that hit a 3-week high of 113.09 was clearly not expected (note that USD extended its gain after NY close). Short-term momentum is clearly strong but at this stage, it is unclear to us whether USD can maintain the current strength in the days ahead. From here, we see scope for USD to test the 113.70 resistance but the probability of a sustained move above this level is not high for now. All in, USD is expected to stay underpinned as long as the ‘key support’ at 112.60 is intact.

Source: efxdata.com

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