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Forex Tech Targets 09.01.2018

Forex-technical-analysis_09-01-2018-FXPIG

EUR/USD: Shift from bullish to NEUTRAL: In a 1.1870/1.2050 range.

While we warned of an increased “risk of a sustained pull-back” yesterday (08 Jan, spot at 1.2035), the ease and pace of which the 1.1970 ‘stop-loss’ was taken out came as a surprise. The outlook has shifted to neutral and EUR has likely moved into a consolidation/correction phase. On a shorter-term note, improved momentum suggests immediate downward pressure but any further weakness is viewed as part of a broader 1.1870/1.2050 sideway trading range and not the start of a major bearish reversal.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 04 Jan 18, 1.3510): In a 1.3400/1.3600 range. No change in view from yesterday (see below). 

 

GBP closed higher for the second straight day on Friday and the undertone has improved. However, we continue to hold a neutral stance for now. That said, a move above the top of the expected 1.3400/1.3600 consolidation range is not ruled out but last week’s 1.3615 high is another strong resistance and only a clear break above this level would increase the odds for a move beyond last year’s 1.3660 top.

 

AUD/USD: Bullish (since 15 Dec 17, 0.7665): Rally is overbought but extension to 0.7900 not ruled out.

There is really not much to add as AUD continues to struggle to maintain its upward momentum. Overbought indicators suggest that time is not on the side of AUD bulls but as highlighted in recent updates, another push higher towards the major 0.7900 level is not ruled out just yet (at this stage, the odds for a sustained move above this level are not high). Only a move back below 0.7790 (‘stop-loss’ level adjusted higher from 0.7760) would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

 

NZD/USD: Bullish (since 14 Dec 0.7015): Focus is at 0.7200 now. No change in view from yesterday (see below).

 

As highlighted last Friday, a break above 0.7170 would shift the focus to 0.7200. NZD hit a high of 0.7187 and while a move to 0.7200 would not be surprising, a sustained move above this rather strong resistance (declining trend-line resistance connecting the 0.7557 July’s peak and the 0.7435 high in Sep) seems unlikely for now (the next resistance is at 0.7245). On the downside, support is at 0.7145 but only a move below 0.7115 (‘stop-loss’ level adjusted from 0.7075) would indicate that a top is in place.

Source:efxnews.com.

EUR/USD: Shift from bullish to NEUTRAL: In a 1.1870/1.2050 range.

While we warned of an increased “risk of a sustained pull-back” yesterday (08 Jan, spot at 1.2035), the ease and pace of which the 1.1970 ‘stop-loss’ was taken out came as a surprise. The outlook has shifted to neutral and EUR has likely moved into a consolidation/correction phase. On a shorter-term note, improved momentum suggests immediate downward pressure but any further weakness is viewed as part of a broader 1.1870/1.2050 sideway trading range and not the start of a major bearish reversal.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 04 Jan 18, 1.3510): In a 1.3400/1.3600 range. No change in view from yesterday (see below). 

 

GBP closed higher for the second straight day on Friday and the undertone has improved. However, we continue to hold a neutral stance for now. That said, a move above the top of the expected 1.3400/1.3600 consolidation range is not ruled out but last week’s 1.3615 high is another strong resistance and only a clear break above this level would increase the odds for a move beyond last year’s 1.3660 top.

 

AUD/USD: Bullish (since 15 Dec 17, 0.7665): Rally is overbought but extension to 0.7900 not ruled out.

There is really not much to add as AUD continues to struggle to maintain its upward momentum. Overbought indicators suggest that time is not on the side of AUD bulls but as highlighted in recent updates, another push higher towards the major 0.7900 level is not ruled out just yet (at this stage, the odds for a sustained move above this level are not high). Only a move back below 0.7790 (‘stop-loss’ level adjusted higher from 0.7760) would indicate that a short-term top is in place.

 

NZD/USD: Bullish (since 14 Dec 0.7015): Focus is at 0.7200 now. No change in view from yesterday (see below).

 

As highlighted last Friday, a break above 0.7170 would shift the focus to 0.7200. NZD hit a high of 0.7187 and while a move to 0.7200 would not be surprising, a sustained move above this rather strong resistance (declining trend-line resistance connecting the 0.7557 July’s peak and the 0.7435 high in Sep) seems unlikely for now (the next resistance is at 0.7245). On the downside, support is at 0.7145 but only a move below 0.7115 (‘stop-loss’ level adjusted from 0.7075) would indicate that a top is in place.

Source:efxnews.com.

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