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Forex Tech Analysis

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EUR/USD: Neutral (since 14 Sep 17, 1.1890): Recovery has room to extend higher to 1.1930.

The rapid and sharp pull-back in EUR last Friday came as a surprise. However, as highlighted in recent updates, as long as the key short-term support at 1.1760 support is intact, there is room for the current recovery to extend higher to 1.1930. That said, EUR has to reclaim 1.1880 within these 1 to 2 days or the odds for further EUR strength would diminish quickly. A move back below 1.1760 would suggest that the mild upward pressure has eased and EUR is then expected to trade sideways.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 11 Oct 17, 1.3205): Odds of sustained up-move to improve as long as above 1.3190.

GBP edged above the top end of our expected 1.3100/1.3330 consolidation last Friday and touched a high of 1.3337. The undertone has improved considerably but we think it is too early to expect a sustained up-move in GBP. There is another strong resistance at 1.3380 and only a daily closing above this level would indicate the start of a bullish phase. To put it another way, the odds for such a move are not high at this stage but would continue to improve as long as GBP can hold above 1.3190 in the coming days.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Oct 17, 0.7825): Strong recovery has scope to extend to 0.7950.

We shifted from a bearish to neutral stance last Friday (13 Oct, spot at 0.7825) and were of the view that there is room for AUD to “probe higher towards the top of the expected 0.7770/0.7900 consolidation range”. However, the rapid pace of advance that resulted in a high of 0.7898 was not exactly expected. The immediate pressure has shifted to the upside but at this stage, we view any up-move as a shortterm strength that is unlikely to be sustained. That said, only a move back below 0.7800 would indicate that the short-term upward pressure has eased. Until then, the current strong recovery has scope to extend higher to 0.7950.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Oct 17, 0.7125): Rebound has scope to extend to 0.7200.

We shifted from a bearish to neutral stance last Friday (13 Oct, spot at 0.7125) and were of the view that the strong rebound in NZD has scope to extend to 0.7200. However, the rapid pace of advance that touched a high of 0.7197 came as a surprise. The undertone is still clearly positive and a clear break above 0.7200 would suggest a stronger extension towards 0.7245. At this stage, a clear break above this level seems unlikely. Overall, NZD is expected to stay underpinned in the coming days as long as it can hold above 0.7120.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 11 Oct 17, 112.40): In a 111.45/112.90 range.

We continue to hold a neutral USD view even though as highlighted in recent updates, the immediate bias is tilted to the downside but at this stage, any weakness is unlikely to move clearly below the expected 111.45/112.90 consolidation range. After the dip to a low of 111.67 last Friday, the undertone has weakened but based on the lackluster momentum, the odds for a sustained down-move are not high.

Source: efxnews.com

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 14 Sep 17, 1.1890): Recovery has room to extend higher to 1.1930.

The rapid and sharp pull-back in EUR last Friday came as a surprise. However, as highlighted in recent updates, as long as the key short-term support at 1.1760 support is intact, there is room for the current recovery to extend higher to 1.1930. That said, EUR has to reclaim 1.1880 within these 1 to 2 days or the odds for further EUR strength would diminish quickly. A move back below 1.1760 would suggest that the mild upward pressure has eased and EUR is then expected to trade sideways.

GBP/USD: Neutral (since 11 Oct 17, 1.3205): Odds of sustained up-move to improve as long as above 1.3190.

GBP edged above the top end of our expected 1.3100/1.3330 consolidation last Friday and touched a high of 1.3337. The undertone has improved considerably but we think it is too early to expect a sustained up-move in GBP. There is another strong resistance at 1.3380 and only a daily closing above this level would indicate the start of a bullish phase. To put it another way, the odds for such a move are not high at this stage but would continue to improve as long as GBP can hold above 1.3190 in the coming days.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Oct 17, 0.7825): Strong recovery has scope to extend to 0.7950.

We shifted from a bearish to neutral stance last Friday (13 Oct, spot at 0.7825) and were of the view that there is room for AUD to “probe higher towards the top of the expected 0.7770/0.7900 consolidation range”. However, the rapid pace of advance that resulted in a high of 0.7898 was not exactly expected. The immediate pressure has shifted to the upside but at this stage, we view any up-move as a shortterm strength that is unlikely to be sustained. That said, only a move back below 0.7800 would indicate that the short-term upward pressure has eased. Until then, the current strong recovery has scope to extend higher to 0.7950.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 13 Oct 17, 0.7125): Rebound has scope to extend to 0.7200.

We shifted from a bearish to neutral stance last Friday (13 Oct, spot at 0.7125) and were of the view that the strong rebound in NZD has scope to extend to 0.7200. However, the rapid pace of advance that touched a high of 0.7197 came as a surprise. The undertone is still clearly positive and a clear break above 0.7200 would suggest a stronger extension towards 0.7245. At this stage, a clear break above this level seems unlikely. Overall, NZD is expected to stay underpinned in the coming days as long as it can hold above 0.7120.

USD/JPY: Neutral (since 11 Oct 17, 112.40): In a 111.45/112.90 range.

We continue to hold a neutral USD view even though as highlighted in recent updates, the immediate bias is tilted to the downside but at this stage, any weakness is unlikely to move clearly below the expected 111.45/112.90 consolidation range. After the dip to a low of 111.67 last Friday, the undertone has weakened but based on the lackluster momentum, the odds for a sustained down-move are not high.

Source: efxnews.com

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