something interesting

<  BACK TO Mr. Markets

The Return of the Spread

Nostalgia isn’t what it used to be!

It is (nearly) always good to see an old friend. Revival gigs by rock stars and movies starring old, well-loved actors, always attract huge audiences. So, it is nice to welcome back to the fold…….the interest rate differential.

Pre-2008 G20 economies were all heading in different directions pulled this way and that by any number of diverse factors. In fact, G7 economies had “pet” drivers that made them unique. In the U.S. it was (and still is) employment, in the U.K., house prices and the Eurozone was consumed (driven by Germany) by inflation. Imagine pre-1999 where the original twelve Eurozone members had their own monetary policy and interest rate!

2008 and the global financial crisis changed all that. Interest rates were cut to the bone everywhere to provide a basis to avoid disaster. The Fed, BoE and ECB all put in place, in various forms, quantitative easing programmes. These were basically injections of liquidity which economists saw as “financial Armageddon”.

Well, to date, all predictions of Armageddon no matter who from, how old or on what basis, have proved to be false. Although the Swiss National Bank gave us a pretty good vision of what to expect in January 2015 when it took the peg away!

What? You didn’t receive the memo?

We are now starting to see the re-emergence of the interest rate differential as a potential driver of currency markets. Traders, particularly younger traders, should have received extra guidance in how to react.

The Fed, (it's always the Fed isn’t it), were the first to hike rates back in December last year. Ostensibly they were trying to stay ahead of the curve (using the literal rather than the generally accepted meaning of the phrase) but, in reality, they were trying to take a little steam out of the stock market where cheap money had seen it rise by 30% in under three years. Remember “irrational exuberance?”

However, a lot of traders clearly “didn’t get the memo” about how a widening interest rate differential is supposed to be supportive of the currency and the dollar index has plunged by close to 10% despite two further hikes.

Now the other two central banks who toyed with quantitative easing alchemy are considering rate hikes.

In the U.K. the picture is clouded somewhat by Brexit. Until this week, inflation had been rising seemingly out of control, but the latest data showed a fall in June from 2.9% to 2.6% easing the calls for a hike.

The ECB insists that the need for a rate hike is some way in the future as growth is patchy across the region although withdrawal of emergency assistance is slated to be discussed in the Autumn.

Brexit? We have ages yet!

My brief to look at the markets from a slightly off the wall angle has led me to decide that I couldn’t leave without mentioning Brexit.

The press conference where Michel Barnier and David Davis outlined what progress has been made so far was, for me, significant for what wasn’t said more than for what was.

Barnier is clearly angry that the U.K. doesn’t seem to be taking things seriously enough. He is adopting a very Teutonic stance, leaving his sense of humour at the door. David Davis on the other hand has an air of diffidence seemingly believing that “it will all sort itself out in the end”.

Barnier is stiff backed, you almost expect him to click his heels and salute, whereas Davis slouches over his lectern fiddling with his earpiece. He doesn’t seem to know what language Barnier is speaking which is just as well as he constantly switches between English and French.

It is slated that face to face meetings between the negotiators will take place for four days a month with a press conference at the end to advise on progress. That means we have 76 days before March 30, 2019 when the lights go out.

I don’t know about you but for me that seems an awfully brief time.

Nostalgia isn’t what it used to be!

It is (nearly) always good to see an old friend. Revival gigs by rock stars and movies starring old, well-loved actors, always attract huge audiences. So, it is nice to welcome back to the fold…….the interest rate differential.

Pre-2008 G20 economies were all heading in different directions pulled this way and that by any number of diverse factors. In fact, G7 economies had “pet” drivers that made them unique. In the U.S. it was (and still is) employment, in the U.K., house prices and the Eurozone was consumed (driven by Germany) by inflation. Imagine pre-1999 where the original twelve Eurozone members had their own monetary policy and interest rate!

2008 and the global financial crisis changed all that. Interest rates were cut to the bone everywhere to provide a basis to avoid disaster. The Fed, BoE and ECB all put in place, in various forms, quantitative easing programmes. These were basically injections of liquidity which economists saw as “financial Armageddon”.

Well, to date, all predictions of Armageddon no matter who from, how old or on what basis, have proved to be false. Although the Swiss National Bank gave us a pretty good vision of what to expect in January 2015 when it took the peg away!

What? You didn’t receive the memo?

We are now starting to see the re-emergence of the interest rate differential as a potential driver of currency markets. Traders, particularly younger traders, should have received extra guidance in how to react.

The Fed, (it's always the Fed isn’t it), were the first to hike rates back in December last year. Ostensibly they were trying to stay ahead of the curve (using the literal rather than the generally accepted meaning of the phrase) but, in reality, they were trying to take a little steam out of the stock market where cheap money had seen it rise by 30% in under three years. Remember “irrational exuberance?”

However, a lot of traders clearly “didn’t get the memo” about how a widening interest rate differential is supposed to be supportive of the currency and the dollar index has plunged by close to 10% despite two further hikes.

Now the other two central banks who toyed with quantitative easing alchemy are considering rate hikes.

In the U.K. the picture is clouded somewhat by Brexit. Until this week, inflation had been rising seemingly out of control, but the latest data showed a fall in June from 2.9% to 2.6% easing the calls for a hike.

The ECB insists that the need for a rate hike is some way in the future as growth is patchy across the region although withdrawal of emergency assistance is slated to be discussed in the Autumn.

Brexit? We have ages yet!

My brief to look at the markets from a slightly off the wall angle has led me to decide that I couldn’t leave without mentioning Brexit.

The press conference where Michel Barnier and David Davis outlined what progress has been made so far was, for me, significant for what wasn’t said more than for what was.

Barnier is clearly angry that the U.K. doesn’t seem to be taking things seriously enough. He is adopting a very Teutonic stance, leaving his sense of humour at the door. David Davis on the other hand has an air of diffidence seemingly believing that “it will all sort itself out in the end”.

Barnier is stiff backed, you almost expect him to click his heels and salute, whereas Davis slouches over his lectern fiddling with his earpiece. He doesn’t seem to know what language Barnier is speaking which is just as well as he constantly switches between English and French.

It is slated that face to face meetings between the negotiators will take place for four days a month with a press conference at the end to advise on progress. That means we have 76 days before March 30, 2019 when the lights go out.

I don’t know about you but for me that seems an awfully brief time.

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Gold technical analysis: Bears challenge a key pivotal support near $1400 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 17.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY recovers from lows, back around 121.40
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Canada: Housing data in focus
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 15.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR: ECB-related uncertainty lingers
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Higher as Dollar Faced Fed Cut Pressure
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD: Less of a safe haven now - ING
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 12.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOE’s Vlieghe: BOE may need to raise rates if inflation expectations are deanchored by a no-deal Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold technical analysis: Set-up remains in favour of bullish traders, dip-buying to help the downside
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - 11.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Bank Of England Sees Significant Market Volatility In Disorderly Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold steadily climbs to session tops, farther beyond $1400 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 08.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: USD looking strong, Turkish lira plunges, new trade tensions arise
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
King Dollar’s reign could end on Powell’s testimony and trade war progress
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD at the crossroads - ING
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Oil: Prices likely to rebound this year – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Payrolls likely to increase 150k in June - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA: More rate cuts to come? - Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Lane: No comments on monetary policy
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slips back closer to overnight swing low, below $1415 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Further downside should test the 100-day SMA at 1.1259
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA delivers consecutive cuts - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 02.07.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Rises on Rate Divergence With Fed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
G20 meeting: Trump and Xi meeting in focus - Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY: Market stays immediately offered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD struggles below 1.3100 handle, fresh multi-month lows
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold climbs to weekly tops, around $1338 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 13.06.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK PM Candidate Javid: My absolute priority is to deliver a Brexit deal
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Damage already done from the Mexico tariff threat? – ABN AMRO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -12.06.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Preview: Draghi’s speech at ECB conference on CESEE in Frankfurt
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
OPEC+ and global supply risks to put a floor in crude markets - TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold slips to 1-week low, below $1325 level amid fading safe-haven demand
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOREX Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -11.06.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Obsessed
This Time It's Different
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EU Commissioner Moscovici: EU still has risks to monitor, including Brexit and Italy’s finances
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold drops to multi-day lows, around $1325 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 10.06.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Higher After US and Canadian Jobs Report
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's Vasiliauskas: Inflation outlook is 'not bad'
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOJ: Expect further easing in September – JP Morgan
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD flirting with daily lows near 1.1260
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB and Eurozone GDP amongst market movers today – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Downtrend eroded? - Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC: July meeting priced in for 21bps of cuts – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD firmer, approaches 1.1300 ahead of US ADP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: Tweak in policy rate forward guidance?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD: Further selling? – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold jumps to over 3-month tops, around $1330 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/GBP could move towards 0.9 – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Market Death by Tariffs; Safe-Havens Reign Supreme
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD holds steady near 1.1135 amid falling German yields
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 31.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold technical analysis: Bulls challenge 100-hour SMA/38.2% Fibo. confluence resistance
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE's Ramsden: Little more pessimistic about the GDP growth that the latest BoE forecasts
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 30.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY climbs to 1-week tops, 110.00 mark back on sight
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Rising bets for another test of 2019 lows near 1.1100
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 29.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold rallies to session tops, around $1285 level amid reviving safe-haven demand
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD remains under pressure around 1.1180
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 28.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY treads water near 109.50 amid negative Treasury yields
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/JPY technical analysis: Hangs near multi-month lows, bears eyeing a break below mid-138.00s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD ticks higher to mid-1.3400s amid weaker Oil prices
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD unable to gather traction above 1.1200
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
May’s Resignation means Brexit is Back to Square One
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 24.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD clings to modest recovery gains, 1.2700 mark back on sight post-UK data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Interim resistance emerges at the 55-day SMA at 1.1236
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold in search of a firm direction, holds steady near $1275 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.1150 post-German GDP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 22.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC Minutes to portray a cautious tone
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD technical analysis: Hammered down to 4-1/2 lows, vulnerable to test 1.2600 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -21.02.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA: Rate cut in June and August?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD resumes the downside near 1.1150 ahead of ECB, data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB's de Cos: European financial system remains fragile
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/JPY remains sidelined below the 123.00 handle
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD seen at 1.15 in 6-month – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Lower Despite Reaching Tariff Agreement With US
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 17.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold drops to session lows, retreats further below $1300 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Short-term consolidation?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
JPY futures: room for further depreciation
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/TRY edging higher, approaches the 6.10 area
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD technical analysis: Bears flirting with 1-week old descending trend-channel support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - 14.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
GBP/USD keeps the red below mid-1.2900s, 2-week lows post-UK jobs data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Recent tops and the 55-day SMA keeps limiting extra gains
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Balance of risks still favour 1.10 in 2Q19
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY -13.05.2019
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE's Broadbent: Doesn't know which way rates would go in case of a messy no-deal Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Dollar falls as the US-China trade war intensifies
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613