something interesting

<  BACK TO Market Analysis

Forex Week Ahead

FOREX_US-dollar-drops2508_FXPIG

The US dollar is lower against most major pairs on Friday. The greenback was waiting for U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech at the central bank summit in Jackson Hole but in the end no new information was provided. Chair Powell reiterated the data dependency of the central bank and shared his optimism regarding inflation. The market is already pricing in two US rate hikes in 2018 and the somewhat dovish remarks from Powell did not add support to the US dollar.

  • US Q2 GDP to remain at 4.0 percent
  • Canadian Q2 GDP to make case for September rate hike
  • NAFTA deal close to a handshake deal between Mexico and US

Dollar Fails to Gather Momentum on Powell’s Words

The EUR/USD gained 1.61 percent during the week. The single pair is trading at 1.1625 as the dollar continued to slide against the EUR on rising political uncertainty in Washington.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has already hiked twice in 2018 and is on the path to lift interest rates two more times before the end of the year. The minutes from the August Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) puts the September meeting as a solid possibility with a December hike still on the table. The CME FedWatch has a 96 percent probability of a 25 basis points hike on September 26.


The EUR/USD is close to erasing the losses that started in August 1. Trade war concerns as US tariffs came into effect have triggered risk aversion taking the dollar higher but political turmoil surrounding the White House keep pressuring the currency downward.

The economic calendar next week is not crowded with the second estimate of Q2 GDP data in the United States the main realease. Growth is expected to remain close to 4.0 percent and to keep validating the policy decisions from the Fed. On the European calendar Germany’s Ifo Institute will publish its survey of business conditions and expectations.

Loonie Higher After Powell and Ahead of Poloz Remarks

The USD/CAD fell 0.22 percent in the last five days. The currency pair is trading at 1.3033 after the remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell added little support to the greenback. Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz will speak on Saturday August 25 as part of the Jackson Hole Symposium.


NAFTA negotiations seem to be finally getting traction, but the choice of the US to deal with Mexico first still leaves a lot of question marks regarding how it will affect the Canadian economy. On Thursday Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said she was encouraged by optimism and ready to rejoin the talks. The Mexican team has said that they will work through the weekend and said that they haven’t bought their return tickets.

BoC Governor Poloz sounded optimistic on Friday that NAFTA will be worked out based on the developments of the last couple of weeks.

Oil Rebounds Boosted by Soft Dollar and Lower US Inventories

Oil prices recovered during the week. West Texas Intermediate is trading at $69.35 and since the Asian open the black stuff has headed higher. The release of a larger than expected US crude stocks on Wednesday put WTI over the $68 price level. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 5.8 million barrels against a forecast of 1.6 million drawdown.


The US sanctions on Iran are beginning to have a negative effect on crude exports from that country, even though they don’t kick in until November. European airlines are halting flights to Iran with advance notice but most will end that route before the end of September.

The trade dispute between China and the US has kept oil prices from rising higher but for the moment the Iran disruption has cancelled out most of the effects of a possible oversupply if a full on trade war were to take place.


Source: marketpulse.com

The US dollar is lower against most major pairs on Friday. The greenback was waiting for U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech at the central bank summit in Jackson Hole but in the end no new information was provided. Chair Powell reiterated the data dependency of the central bank and shared his optimism regarding inflation. The market is already pricing in two US rate hikes in 2018 and the somewhat dovish remarks from Powell did not add support to the US dollar.

  • US Q2 GDP to remain at 4.0 percent
  • Canadian Q2 GDP to make case for September rate hike
  • NAFTA deal close to a handshake deal between Mexico and US

Dollar Fails to Gather Momentum on Powell’s Words

The EUR/USD gained 1.61 percent during the week. The single pair is trading at 1.1625 as the dollar continued to slide against the EUR on rising political uncertainty in Washington.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has already hiked twice in 2018 and is on the path to lift interest rates two more times before the end of the year. The minutes from the August Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) puts the September meeting as a solid possibility with a December hike still on the table. The CME FedWatch has a 96 percent probability of a 25 basis points hike on September 26.


The EUR/USD is close to erasing the losses that started in August 1. Trade war concerns as US tariffs came into effect have triggered risk aversion taking the dollar higher but political turmoil surrounding the White House keep pressuring the currency downward.

The economic calendar next week is not crowded with the second estimate of Q2 GDP data in the United States the main realease. Growth is expected to remain close to 4.0 percent and to keep validating the policy decisions from the Fed. On the European calendar Germany’s Ifo Institute will publish its survey of business conditions and expectations.

Loonie Higher After Powell and Ahead of Poloz Remarks

The USD/CAD fell 0.22 percent in the last five days. The currency pair is trading at 1.3033 after the remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell added little support to the greenback. Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz will speak on Saturday August 25 as part of the Jackson Hole Symposium.


NAFTA negotiations seem to be finally getting traction, but the choice of the US to deal with Mexico first still leaves a lot of question marks regarding how it will affect the Canadian economy. On Thursday Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said she was encouraged by optimism and ready to rejoin the talks. The Mexican team has said that they will work through the weekend and said that they haven’t bought their return tickets.

BoC Governor Poloz sounded optimistic on Friday that NAFTA will be worked out based on the developments of the last couple of weeks.

Oil Rebounds Boosted by Soft Dollar and Lower US Inventories

Oil prices recovered during the week. West Texas Intermediate is trading at $69.35 and since the Asian open the black stuff has headed higher. The release of a larger than expected US crude stocks on Wednesday put WTI over the $68 price level. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 5.8 million barrels against a forecast of 1.6 million drawdown.


The US sanctions on Iran are beginning to have a negative effect on crude exports from that country, even though they don’t kick in until November. European airlines are halting flights to Iran with advance notice but most will end that route before the end of September.

The trade dispute between China and the US has kept oil prices from rising higher but for the moment the Iran disruption has cancelled out most of the effects of a possible oversupply if a full on trade war were to take place.


Source: marketpulse.com

lastest Articles

Market Analysis
Forex Today: Powell punches dollar, Boris' judgment day, Trump's tariffs decision, Lagarde's ECB debut
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: On a high – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold sidelined near $1465 level, FOMC awaited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Fed may cut once more – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Shirking majority for Johnson, Fed to stand pat through 2020?
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead – The UK election is upon us
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Bears challenge 50-DMA, ascending trend-line confluence support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD sidelined around 1.1100 ahead of key US data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Happy Friday for trade talks, GBP/USD holding onto Boris boost, all eyes on the NFP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
OPEC+ said to discuss deeper oil cuts – RTRS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold holds steady near $1475, weaker USD lends some support
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Kiwi lifted by RBNZ amid cautious optimism; eyes on OPEC+ meet, trade
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asia: PMIs back in expansion territory – TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD stays firm near 1.1100, looks to data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoC Preview: Major Banks expecting BoC to hold fire today
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
US: Mixed manufacturing data – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold: Back in the red around $ 1460 amid USD comeback
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trump's tariffs weigh on USD before meeting Boris, AUD surges, EUR rising
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Australia: Dwelling approvals weaken – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK Industry: Brexit, weak global demand to hurt UK in 2020
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: China lifts mood, Boris and Merkel in trouble, critical data kicks off December
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead - Market Awaits China Retaliation on Trade
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BOJ’s Kuroda: Not thinking of further easing at present
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD looks for direction near 1.10 ahead of key data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Soggy Black Friday mood, GBP/USD retreats, EZ inflation awaited
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD struggles near multi-week lows, just above mid-0.6700s
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Villeroy: Brexit uncertainty likely to last for at least some quarters in the future
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Sterling surges as poll backs Boris, dollar bulls thankful, Trump angers China
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
If Trump refuses to roll back tariffs, loss to American farmers could be permanent – Global Times
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD is offered near term – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Massive pre-holiday US data dump, Trump holding back deal, critical UK poll eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
UK: Disorderly Brexit comes off the table – ABN AMRO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD faces dual resistance lines, downside is easier – Confluence Detector
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Markets doubt US-Sino progress, Powell sees glass filling, GBP/USD spooked by poll
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD could still re-test the vicinity of 1.1100 – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Cheering China's olive branch to Trump, Boris extends lead, EUR/USD faces test
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Risk sentiment buoyed by trade optimism, focus on German IFO
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Markets remain fixated with the US-China Trade War and Brexit
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
JPY Futures: looks neutral/bullish near-term
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB’s Lagarde: We face a global environment that is marked by uncertainty
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Breaking: EUR/USD jumps to 1.1085 as German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI surprises positively with 43.8
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD clings to gains near 1.1080 ahead of ECB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold flirting with session lows, around $1470 region
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trump's trade deal in trouble, Boris bounces back, EUR/USD awaits ECB Minutes
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold Price News & Forecast: XAU/USD $1,475 continues to cap upside
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC minutes: Key event ahead
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: US Senate's HK bill weighs on sentiment, Corbyn crashing the pound, Fed minutes awaits
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY technical lines drawn as trade uncertainty persists – Confluence Detector
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
OPEC's share of Indian oil imports in October hits lowest since 2011 – Reuters
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar depressed amid trade skepticism, Bitcoin battered, Johnson-Corbyn debate eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Upside is likely to remain capped near a support-turned-resistance
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBNZ likely to have two further cuts in May and August next year
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE expected to remain on hold for the time being
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
USD/JPY moves back closer to multi-month tops, around 109.25-30 region
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE to deliver a 25bps cut in January 2020 – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Tension toward Trump's trade comments, boost for Boris holds up, data eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD clings to gains around 1.1020
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold recovers from 3-month lows, up little around $1465 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trump's trade pessimism pressures markets, Spain stuck again, UK GDP set to rise
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Week Ahead - Trade war, UK, RBNZ, Banxico, Spain
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
RBA is not complacent about AUD remaining weak – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB Economic Bulletin: Moderate but positive growth in H2
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
FXSniper PAMM - The New GEM at FXPIG
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold ticks higher, lacks follow-through
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD now risks a move to 1.1000 – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Chinese tariff demands may break trade talks, USD marches forward, Fed speakers eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
OPEC: Raises mid-term outlook for non-OPEC Oil supply growth
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD upside loses momentum
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Asia: PMIs pull back – TDS
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: Focus on Lagarde’s speech
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoE to leave the policy rate unchanged – Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Markets have reasons for a happy Monday, Boris Johnson remains in the lead, Lagarde eyed
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Week Ahead – RBA and BOE Decisions in focus as UK election campaigns begin
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD trims gains and recedes to 1.1150 ahead of NFP
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
The Fed moves into a ‘wait-and-see’ mode
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar defeated ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls, Chinese data cheers markets
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD unchanged near 1.1170 post-EMU data
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC and BoJ meetings should have supported USD/JPY – Westpac
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Dollar depressed after the Fed, trade talks accelerate, and another busy data day awaits
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC Preview: What 11 major banks are expecting from October
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD could still visit the 1.1180 region
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Company News
Time to fall back
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Super Wednesday features the Fed, US GDP, and lots more as Brits brace for "jingle polls"
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Further upside in EUR/USD lost traction
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
BoC likely to leave the policy rate unchanged – Rabobank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Trump's trade hope lifts markets, Boris brings elections to parliament, Bitcoin bruised by Chinese warning
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit, FOMC meeting amongst market movers this week – Danske Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold consolidates in a range, just above $1500 mark
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: recovery could extend to the 100-day SMA at 1.1128
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Week Ahead – Brexit, Fed, BoC, BoJ and Earnings
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Brexit: EU to extend Brexit deadline without a date - Reuters
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Gold climbs to fresh two-week tops, above $1505 level
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
FOMC: Still no pre-commitment to more easing
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB meeting to be a relatively uneventful policy-wise
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Brexit in the EU's hands, EUR/USD may struggle with Draghi one last time, Bitcoin battered
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
ECB: Draghi’s last Governing Council meeting – Deutsche Bank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EU's Tusk: Will react to Brexit delay request in the coming days
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Steady trading – Commerzbank
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
Forex Today: Critical vote on Brexit, mixed messages on trade talks, Trudeau returned as Canadian PM
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613
Market Analysis
EUR/USD could test the 1.1200 region near term – UOB
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b23a9c274f4a28b6ab7acddb98b80613