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EUR/USD: Neutral (since 07 Aug 17, 1.1785): Bearish if NY closing below 1.1680. The neutral phase that started on 07 Aug (spot at 1.1785) is still intact as EUR traded sideways to slightly lower for the past two weeks within a range of less than 200 pips (between 1.1661 and 1.1846)

In his speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, ECB President Draghi is expected to give further sign of ECB's growing confidence in the euro area economy which will be keenly watched by investors, explains the analysis team at ANZ

Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research notes that the current theme for the USD seems to be ‘two steps forward, one step back’ as stronger activity data and constructive comments from NY Fed President Dudley were partly offset by a dovish reaction to the FOMC minutes as well as ongoing events in Washington.

Forex today kicked-off the week on a subdued note in Asia, as most majors stuck in tight trading ranges, digesting the US political drama and North Korea warnings over the US military drills with South Korea. Meanwhile, a lack of fresh economic fundamentals also left the markets side-lined. Investors also remained on the edge amid persisting moderate risk-aversion, fuelled by negative Asian equities and lower oil prices. Also, cautious trading prevailed, as attention turned towards the Jack Hole Symposium starting this Thursday.

Gold [XAU/USD] found takers below the 10-DMA of $1281 in early Asia on caution ahead of the war drills in the Korean Peninsula. The yellow metal currently trades around $1286/Oz levels. Prices clocked a high of $1300 on Friday before deflating to $1284 levels.

The US dollar was looking for a new direction and it had a mixed week. The last full week of August features US housing data, durable goods orders and perhaps most importantly, the Jackson Hole Symposium. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

The greenback stays on the defensive so far on Friday, briefly dragging USD/JPY to the area of daily lows in sub-109.00 levels.SD/JPY weaker on USTs...

FX Strategists at UOB Group believes the pair could navigate between 1.1680 and 1.1780 in the very near term.

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 07 Aug 17, 1.1785): Bearish if NY closing below 1.1680.EUR dipped below the strong 1.1680 support and touched a low of 1.1661 yesterday before staging another strong rebound

A Bloomberg article says the economics textbooks prescribe interest rate, but Carney is in no mood to do so and is veering off script.

Equity markets across the Asia-Pacific region were down Friday with Japan’s Nikkei hitting a three-month low, weighed by overnight weakness on Wall Street following days of solid gains.

Gold extended overnight strong rally and has now climbed back closer to over two-month highs touched last Friday, around $1290 level.

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY) stays within the negative ground so far today, although it has managed to bounce off lows near 93.20. US Dollar offered post FOMC...

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 07 Aug 17, 1.1785): Bearish if NY closing below 1.1680.While EUR touched a low of 1.1680 yesterday, it rebounded strongly and quickly to end the day well above this level. As highlighted, only a NY closing below 1.1680 would indicate that EUR has moved into a bearish phas

James Marple, Director & Senior Economist at TD Economics, explains that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members noted little change to the economic or labor market outlook, but spent a considerable time pondering the "the softness in inflation" and how to react to it.

EUR/USD found takers at the 20-day low of 1.1681 and ran into rising trend line hurdle after the Fed minutes released in the NY session showed growing concerns among policymakers about weak inflation.

The Office for National Statistics noted on Wednesday, the UK’s official jobless rate ticked lower to 4.4% in June, while the claimant count unexpectedly dropped last month.

The US Dollar Index – which tracks the buck vs. its main rivals – has reverted the initial negative tone and is now trading back around the 93.80 area, or daily highs. US Dollar attention to FOMC

In the view of analysts at Barclays, the FOMC minutes is likely to provide fresh hints on the timing of the Fed balance sheet normalization process, while could express concerns over the US inflation outlook.

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 07 Aug 17, 1.1785): Bearish if NY closing below 1.1680.The ease of which the 1.1750 support was taken out came as a surprise. As highlighted yesterday, “a break below 1.1750 would indicate a retest of last week’s low near 1.1685/90”.

Bloomberg quoting a person familiar with the matter, citing that Libya’s biggest oil field Sharara, reopened for business and increased output to 230,000 barrels a day Tuesday from 200,000 barrels on Sunday.

Asian equity markets lacked direction Wednesday following a rebound earlier in the week, tracking a muted performance overnight on Wall Street.The Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -0.18% was down 0.5% as trading kicked off, with large caps succumbing to selling pressure following recent strength. Stocks were higher in Hong Kong though, with the Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.51% up 0.5%.

Fresh bids emerged just ahead of 10-DMA at $ 1277.81, allowing a tepid bounce in Comex Gold futures in the European session.All eyes on US retail sales

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 07 Aug 17, 1.1785): EUR to remain underpinned as long as above 1.1750.There is not much to add as we continue to expect EUR to stay underpinned as long as 1.1750 is intact

The NZD/USD pair reverses half the Asian advance and falls back below 0.73 handle, as the US dollar extends the upside against its major peers.NZD/USD back below 5-DMA at 0.7300

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso was on the wires earlier today, via Reuters, commenting on Japan’s capex and housing investment.

Global stocks continued to rebound Tuesday, getting a fresh lift as North Korea pulled back its threat to attack Guam.After days of heated rhetoric between North Korea and President Donald Trump, Pyongyang dialed back the political tensions Tuesday with North Korean state media saying Kim Jong Un had decided not to fire missiles at the U.S. territory.

The EUR/USD pair keeps losses and remains within the striking distance of daily lows reached at 1.1792, following the release of downbeat Eurozone industrial production data. EUR/USD: Focus shifts to US retail sales

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 07 Aug 17, 1.1785): EUR to remain underpinned as long as above 1.1750. As indicated last Friday (11 Aug), a move back above 1.1830 would indicate that the mild downward pressure has eased.

The Sterling is losing the grip at the beginning of the week, now dragging GBP/USD to the lower bound of the range around 1.3000 the figure.

Following two consecutive Doji like candles with long lower shadows, the EUR/USDpair rallied to a high of 1.1848 on Friday. The gains were fuelled by a weaker-than-expected US inflation release and the resulting drop in the Fed rate hike odds.

Stock markets across Asia were higher on Monday following last week’s pullback, as senior U.S. officials over the weekend sought to play down risks of a military conflict with North Korea.

The USD/JPY pair extended the consolidative price action and remained within striking distance of multi-week lows refreshed earlier today.

Analysts at HSBC present a brief preview on what to expect from the upcoming US jobs numbers slated for release at 1230GMT.

The demand for the single currency remains solid at the end of the wee, now pushing EUR/USD to the upper bound of the range just below the key 1.19 handle.EUR/USD looks to NFP

The US Dollar traded with mild weakness in a generally quiet Asian session on Friday. News report that special counsel Robert Mueller impaneled a grand jury to investigate allegations of Russia’s interference in the 2016 elections was seen weighing on the greenback

Stocks continued to struggle for direction amid slow late-summer trading, as investors paused following strong gains this year and ahead of the U.S. employment report due later Friday.

Oliver Harvey, Macro Strategist at Deutsche Bank, expects the Bank of England to remain on hold today, but not to out-dove the market.

EUR/USD: Bullish (since 19 Jul 17, 1.1550): 1.2000 is the next target but could be a bridge too far. We indicated yesterday that unless EUR can ‘punch’ above 1.1845 within these few days, the odds for further upward extension would diminish

The Sterling has recovered the ground lost during early trade, now prompting GBP/USD to return to the vicinity of 1.3230 after bottoming out near 1.3210.

Oil benchmarks traded under pressure in Asia as traders took note of the rise in the Saudi and Russia oil shipments to yearly highs in July.

Geopolitics helped prompt profit-taking in Asian shares Thursday following this week’s strength.

In opinion of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, spot could try to stabilize in the 110.27/109.75 band for the time being.

EUR/USD has edged higher in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1840, up 0.33% on the day. On the release front, Eurozone PPI declined 0.1%, matching the estimate

EUR/USD: Bullish (since 19 Jul 17, 1.1550): Odds for further extension would diminish unless there is clear break above 1.1845 soon. EUR traded in a relatively narrow range of 1.1784/1.1845 yesterday. The bullish phase that started 2 weeks ago is still intact but upward momentum is beginning to show signs of slowing.

The Fed’s QE Treasury holdings will soon begin to roll out of its portfolio as treasury bonds held by the Fed act like floating rate debt for the budget, so the Treasury is likely to replace them with bills.

According to the results of the latest CNBC poll of energy strategists, traders and economists, oil prices are expected to remain capped around $ 50/ barrel this quarter, as the OPEC’s efforts to rebalance markets will be somewhat offset by the US shale output growth.

Reuters out with additional headlines from the BOJ board member Funo, this time calling for reforms to help achieve 2% price target.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that their expectation is that UK monetary policy will remain unchanged again in August. Key Quotes:

ANZ FX Strategy Research argues that much of the good news that has propelled the AUD through the last month–looks well priced into the currency.

EUR/USD: Exited rest of long position at 1.1800. Despite our reservation about the overbought conditions, the ongoing mess in White House gave EUR a fillip and sent it soaring above the strong 1.1800 resistance (overnight high of 1.1845

Oil futures pushed to session highs on Tuesday, adding to more than a week straight of gains which have allowed the U.S. benchmark to move back above $50 a barrel for the first time in two months, lifted by growing optimism that the market is tightening.

EUR/USD jumped to a high of 1.1846 on Monday on the back of a broad based USD sell-off even though the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 2.30% and the US-German 10-yr yield spread improved to 1.76 from the previous day’s print of 1.74.

Equities continued to rise Tuesday, with Asian stocks starting August widely higher during what has been a strong earnings season so far.

Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research expects next week’s RBA policy meeting to reaffirm the central bank's neutral stance, noticing that the RBA has so far resisted calls to join the group of G10 central banks that have moved closer to policy normalization recently.

Aila Mihr, Analyst at Danske Bank, sees potential pullbacks in spot to remain brief in the near/medium term. Key Quotes:

EUR/USD: Bullish (since 19 Jul 17, 1.1550): Longs should exit rest of position at 1.1800. As indicated in the Chart of the Day update last Friday, we are aware of the current overbought conditions and in order to maintain the bullish impetus, EUR has to continue to march higher.

Analysts at Barclay offer fresh insights on what to expect from the BOE policy decision, accompanying minutes and quarterly inflation report slated for release this Thursday.

Remarks from the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Sabine Lautenschlaeger on the bank’s monetary policy program were published in the Mannheimer Morgen newspaper over the weekend.

Asian shares generally started Monday with slight declines as investors took profits on the last day of a largely positive month for stocks in the region that benefited from robust earnings and higher commodity prices.

US economic fundamentals to drive dollar this week. The US dollar is lower against the major pairs after the political uncertainty in Washington and mixed economic fundamentals took their toll on the greenback.

The U.S. dollar churned lower against most rivals save for the depreciating Swiss franc on Friday ahead of an update on the broadest measure of the U.S. economy—a GDP report that could help shape the Federal Reserve’s so far slow-moving approach to interest rates.

EUR/USD caught a fresh bid tone last minutes, with the bulls taking the rate back above Aug 2015 tops in a bid to print fresh daily top at 1.1717. EUR/USD awaits fresh impetus from the US growth numbers.

Following yesterday's volatile swing, the USD/JPY pair came under some renewed selling pressure on Friday and was seen flirting with the 111.00 handle.

FX today witnessed an eventful Asian session on the final trading day of this week, with plenty of economic data reported from the Japanese docket, offering limited support to the Yen bulls

In view of analysts at Deutsche Bank, the key events over the week ahead for Australia will be the RBA's monthly board meeting and also the release of the August Statement on Monetary Policy.

The USD/JPY pair witnessed volatile moves in early Asia on the release of the Japanese data dump, although steadied towards late-Asia/ early Europe, as focus remains on the USD price-actions ahead of the critical US Q2 advance GDP release.

Fresh bids emerged at the resistance-turned support Aug 2015 highs in the European session, allowing the EUR/USD pair to attempt a minor-recovery back towards 1.1750 levels.

Analysts at ING point out that the BoC has hiked rates for the first time in seven years, despite all measures of inflation undershooting the target.

EUR/USD: Bullish (since 19 Jul 17, 1.1550): Still bullish, the next level to focus on is at 1.1800. We warned of the increased risk of a short-term top yesterday unless “EUR can punch above 1.1710 soon”. Thanks to Fed, EUR surmounted this level easily and hit overnight high of 1.1739.

The FOMC has three meetings left this year, in September, November, and December. Since the November meeting does not have a press conference the Committee is likely to have September and December in mind for its next moves

All in all, there were few changes in the wording suggest that the Fed maintains basically the same view as in June, that growth picked up in Q2 from a weak start to the year.

It should be an interesting day for markets today, with the UK releasing data on second quarter growth this morning, the US Federal Reserve announcing its latest decision this evening and crude inventory data being released after API reported a substantial reduction.

The US Dollar Index – which tracks the buck vs. a basket of its main rivals – is extending the recovery to the vicinity of the 94.00 handle ahead of the European opening. US Dollar focus on FOMC

EUR/USD: Bullish (since 19 Jul 17, 1.1550): Failure to clear 1.1710 has increased risk of a short-term top. We stated in recent updates that the level to focus on is at the Aug 2015 high of 1.1710. EUR tested this level yesterday with a high of 1.1711. The failure to clear this critical level amidst overall overbought conditions indicates an increased risk of a short top

Gold prices fell below the 50-DMA level of $1249.45 and extended losses to $1246 (23.6% Fib R of $1204.70-$1258.79) as the political relief in Washington strengthened the US dollar.

The EUR/USD pair clocked a high of 1.1713 (highest since Aug 2015) on Tuesday before closing out almost on a flat note at 1.1645. The ‘gravestone doji’ look-alike candle signals bull market exhaustion, which gels well with the overbought 14-day RSI.

Gold tried but failed to extend its streak of gains, with prices settling slightly lower as the U.S. dollar strengthened a bit after last week’s sharp loss.

The recent strong appreciation of AUD has complicated the adjustment underway in the Australian economy, according to Tim Baker, Strategist at Deutsche Bank. Key Quotes:

EUR/USD: Bullish (since 19 Jul 17, 1.1550): Took half profit at 1.1660, focus on 1.1710 next.EUR gave back most of last Friday’s gain and closed lower at 1.1638. The strong upward pressure that started post-ECB last Thursday has eased and the current price action is viewed as a short-term consolidation phase that could last for a few days.

The EUR/USD pair finally broke its overnight consolidative mode and jumped higher last hour in a bid to test the immediate resistance located near 1.1660 region. EUR/USD awaits German Ifo

BNP Paribas FX Strategy Research notes heading into June, the market consensus was that, with Canada operating under a large output gap, policy tightening would likely be unnecessary for some time – even as the economy grew at or above trend.

Cable’s outlook is seen neutral to negative for the time being, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

The USD/JPY pair prolonged its bearish trajectory and dropped to over one-month lows near the 110.65 region during European trading session on Monday.

The single currency keeps the negative tone on Monday following the release of EMU’s PMI, with EUR/USD navigating the lower end of the range around 1.1640/30. EUR/USD offered on PMI, USD-buying

EUR/USD: Bullish (since 19 Jul 17, 1.1550): Took half profit at 1.1660, focus on 1.1710 next. The partial profit taking level suggested last Friday at 1.1660 was exceeded as EUR hit a high of 1.1682.

Analysts at ANZ explain that it had felt like downside inflation surprises had become the flavour of the month, with a number of countries (including New Zealand of course) seeing their latest inflation prints undershoot expectations, but Canada appears to have bucked that trend, with its measure of core inflation rising in June.

Gold prices rose to a 4-week high of $1257.18 in early Asia, tracking the weakness in the USD index and the Asian equities.

Political uncertainty sinking Dollar - The US dollar is weaker against most of majors after a week where there was little on the US economic calendar with the spotlight on Washington’s rising political tensions. The investigation into Russian ties during the presidential election...

Gold prices rose to a three-week high on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said ECB policymakers would discuss potential changes to the bank's bond-buying scheme in the autumn, lifting the euro to a 14-month high.

The ECB kept unchanged policy rates, its QE programme, its forward guidance and QE easing bias, notes the research team at Danske Bank. Hence, the ECB is still signalling its readiness to increase the size and/or duration of the QE purchases, they further add.

EUR/USD: Bullish (since 19 Jul 17, 1.1550): 1.1615 target exceeded, focus on 1.1710 next. When we shifted to a bullish stance on Wednesday, we were of the view that the rally in EUR is ‘over-extended’ and expected...

The GBP/USD pair extended its overnight trend into Asia and remained better offered amid a minor-recovery staged by US dollar across the board and risk-off market profile.

Thursday’s press conference was one of those rare occasions when the ECB President Draghi failed to talk down the Euro.

The GBP/USD pair failed to sustain the bounce above 1.30 handle, despite a Big beat seen in the UK retail sales data, knocking-off the rate sharply towards the mid-point of 1.29 handle.

FX Strategists at UOB Group assessed the prospects of today’s ECB meeting.

EUR/USD: Bullish (since 19 Jul 17, 1.1550): Over-extended but room for extension to 1.1615. We just shifted to a bullish stance yesterday and there is no change to the view.

Analysts at ANZ suggest that whether you put it down to the more upbeat RBA minutes, the 30-odd% recovery in iron ore prices, the fact that Chinese activity has been surprising on the upside, or the generally weaker USD backdrop, the AUD has been on a tear of late...

Equity markets in Asia extended overnight gains in the U.S. early Thursday, lifted by expectations of upbeat earnings reports and higher oil prices, though investor caution over central-bank action has capped the upside.

In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, EUR/USD's stance remains positive albeit begs some caution.