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Sterling has slumped against the dollar since mid-April as expectations of a Bank of England interest rate rise recede, the economy shows signs of weakness and...

Financial markets fear that the elections, which could take place as early as August, are seen as a quasi-referendum over Italy’s role in the European Union and euro zone and could end up...

Despite full markets returning, we have little of note to report in the European session, except for the Swiss trade figures and Eurozone money supply data. However, the political drama around Italy and Spain will continue to...

The pair's price action on Monday is dominated by the changes in the demand for the greenback. With European currencies suffering losses on political jitters in Italy, investors continue to flee to the USD, which remains a better investment alternative as the hawkish stance of the Fed ramps up the expectations for the bullish rally to continue.

Political jitters in Italy continues to push investors to safer assets. After rising more than 20 basis points, the 10-year Italian T-bond yield refreshed its multi-year high above 2.7% while the FTSE MIB equity index dropped more than 2.5% as the latest developments point to a new election at the end of the summer. However, despite gold's safe-haven status, the pair is having a rough time gaining traction with the FX interest shifting to the buck.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) which measures the greenback relative strength compared with a basket of currencies worldwide is hovering near 5-month highs near the 94.30 as traders have been piling in the USD long trades as they expect the Federal Reserve Bank to hike three times in 2018. Market participants are widely expecting the next rate hike at the June meeting of the Federal Reserve.

The pair witnessed a dramatic turnaround at the start of a new trading week, with the incoming Italian political uncertainty turning out to be a key driver of the sentiment surrounding the...

The market quickly faded early euphoria, led by the failure of an anti-establishment coalition government formation in Italy, with uncertainty over an early election prompting some aggressive selling since the...

Despite a modest US Dollar retracement, led by a sharp spike in the shared currency, the pair continued gaining positive traction at the start of a new trading week. The ongoing slump in...

Forex today was mainly driven by the Euro rebound from half-year troughs, as the EUR bulls were rescued by the Italian politics. The rejection of the Eurosceptic Italian Economy Minister and the resultant failure to form the coalition government turned out to be...

Market events to watch this week

The US dollar was up against majors pairs on Friday ahead of the release of employment data in America. On a weekly basis the greenback gained against the CAD, EUR and GBP but lost ground against the JPY, AUD and CHF after five days that featured...

NZD is mimicking its big brother, commodity-linked currency AUD, which has been supported by stronger gold prices this week. In fact, traders rushed to the metal as the geopolitical picture worsened progressively as the week went on.

Following its strong advance from Thursday, the yellow metal found sellers at the 1,307 level in early American trade as US stock indices futures are trying to reverse the overnight losses. It is now trading at round 1,303.60 slightly down on Friday.

The pair deepened its leg lower today following a wave of buying orders around the greenback, while results from the US docket have also lent support to the buck. In fact, US headline Durable Goods Orders contracted at a monthly 1.7%, while Core orders expanded 0.9% inter-month.

The GBP bulls also seemed little impressed by the second estimate of the UK GDP growth figures, which matched the preliminary reading and confirmed a tepid growth of...

Broader currencies remained in a range with investors digesting a week of heavy newsflow including broadly perceived dovish Fed minutes and mixed European data with the dollar holding below a...

The pair continued with its struggled to make it through the 0.7580 supply zone, with lingering US-China trade war fears to weigh on the China-proxy Australian Dollar. The US President Donald Trump raised the spectre of high US tariffs on...

Today’s EUR calendar offers the German IFO business climate and the second estimate of UK Q1 GDP, which will be reported at 0830 GMT alongside the release of the prelim business investment and...

The dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Thursday and hit a two-week low against the Japanese yen, after U.S. President Donald Trump called off a summit meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and as traders booked profits following the greenback’s recent rally.

The euro rose off a six-month low on Thursday as the dollar faltered but concerns over an economic slowdown in Europe and political risks in Italy continued to act as a brake. The euro is set to be down for a sixth consecutive week against the dollar — the longest weekly losing streak since January 2015...

The market now seems to have fully digested Wednesday's FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, with a modest rebound in the US Treasury bond yields helping the US Dollar to...

Spot paid little attention to the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, where the Committee noted that a temporary overshooting of the Fed’s inflation target would be in line with the...

Risk-aversion remained the main underlying theme in Asia this Thursday after Trump brought in fresh tariffs on auto imports while North Korea threatened to call-off the June Summit. The US dollar extended post-FOMC minutes weakness across its...

Analysts at Scotiabank noted that sterling is soft, with Cable reaching its lowest level since Dec. Apr UK CPI data showed prices generally softening, counter to expectations for steady inflation.

The euro fell to near three-month lows against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as fresh data indicating a slowdown in European business activity cast a shadow over the timing of the central bank’s rate hike, while concerns over Italian politics rose.

Sterling fell to a new 2018 low on Wednesday after weaker-than-expected UK inflation cast doubt on whether the Bank of England (BoE) will raise interest rates this year. Annual consumer price inflation cooled to 2.4 percent, its weakest increase since March 2017.

Geopolitical tensions resurfaced after the US President Donald Trump casted doubt on the upcoming historic summit with North Korea in June. Trump also tempered optimism over the progress made in the recent US-China trade talks and...

Currently trading near the 1.2870 region, the pair has now moved within striking distance of weekly tops set on Monday and a subsequent move back towards the 1.2900 handle, amid some repositioning trade ahead of...

On the fx front, the Yen emerged the clear winner amid risk-off markets that sent the Yen crosses sharply lower while both the Antipodeans were broadly dumped. The Kiwi slumped below the 0.69 handle, as markets digested RBNZ’s dovish comments, floating negative cash rates. Its OZ neighbor, the AUD, slipped to...

The AUD/USD pair is consolidating near 0.7600, on its way for the third consecutive daily gain. The Australian dollar is among the top performers supported by risk appetite, positive expectation on US-China trade negotiations and...

Prices of the barrel of the American benchmark for the sweet light crude oil keep the upper end of the range so far on Tuesday, navigating near earlier more than...

Earlier in the European session, the Bank of England’s officials testified on the economic and inflation outlook before the Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee (TSC). Without any surprises, the comments were...

The dollar fell on Tuesday from a five-month high, losing momentum after a broad rally prompted by rising U.S. bond yields and relief at an easing in U.S.-China trade tensions.The dollar’s index against a basket of six major currencies last...

The pair extended overnight retracement slide from over 4-month tops and was further weighed down by a negative trading sentiment around equity markets, which was seen underpinning the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven demand.

The modest decline was driven by a weaker US Dollar across the board particularly against commodity and Emerging Market currencies. Another factor supporting the downside was crude oil. The WTI rose to...

On Saturday, the US and China had constructive talks over the trade war dispute. Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury Secretary’s recent positive comments saw the markets enter in the risk-on mood on Monday. As gold is seen as a safe-haven asset, investors sold the...

On the opposite side, the buck clinched fresh tops above the 94.00 mark albeit sellers stepped in soon afterwards, sparking the ongoing correction to the 93.70 region amidst some consolidation of...

The rally in the greenback continues to support the up move in USD/JPY, this time climbing to the 111.40 zone, or fresh 4-month peaks. Spot is so far advancing for the ninth consecutive week, gaining almost 7% since yearly lows in the mid-104.00s recorded in late March and...

The British pound fell on Friday as the U.S. dollar resumed its rally, with confusion about whether Britain would stay in the European Union’s customs union after it leaves the bloc also weighing on the currency. Prime Minister Theresa May said on Thursday Britain would leave the EU customs union after...

Easing tensions over the US-China trade dispute boosted the appetite for risk assets across the financial markets in Asia at the start of a brand new week. Across the fx board, the US dollar extended its upsurge and posted fresh five-month highs versus its main competitors.

Market events to watch this week

The EUR/USD lost 1.34 percent in the last five days. The single currency is trading at 1.1778 with a resurgent USD and an EUR caught in political drama. The U.S. Federal Reserve is on its way for a rate hike in June and in contrast the European Central Bank (ECB) has not made it clear what the plan is after September when the quantitive easing will end.

The USD/JPY currency pair is trading at around 110.68 down 0.07% on Friday.

The GBP/USD pair extended its steady decline from an intraday high level of 1.3528 and is currently placed just above over 2-week old trading range support.

The downside momentum around the shared currency is gathering further traction today and is dragging EUR/USD to record fresh lows in the mid-1.1700s.

Today's up-move could be attributed to easing bearish pressure surrounding the shared currency and the latest positive political development in Italy, which ended the impending political deadlock in...

After edging below the January’s low of 1.3458 on Tuesday (15 May), GBP has been unable to make much headway on the downside. The lack of a follow-through and the subsequent sideway trading has resulted in a...

The argument has merit as the AUD/JPY pair, which is widely considered as a risk barometer, rose to 83.40 in Asia - the highest level since April 19. It seems the markets have taken heart from the reports stating that China has...

Gold printed a fresh 2018 low earlier today at $1,285.10/oz and then bounced modestly to the upside.

The AUD/USD pair extended its steady decline from an intraday high level of 0.7548 and momentarily dipped below the key 0.75 psychological mark in the last hour, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter.

The USD/JPY pair maintained its strong bid tone through the early NA session and refreshed multi-month tops post-US data.

The euro hovered near five-month lows on Thursday as investors fretted about the demands of Italian populist parties and as a fresh rise in U.S. government bond yields underpinned demand for the dollar.The euro laboured close to the $1.18 mark at $1.1795 and down 0.1 percent on the day, slightly above...

We highlighted yesterday (16 May, 1.1830) that the “immediate pressure is on the downside” and added, “further weakness to 1.1750 would not be surprising”. EUR subsequently hit a low of 1.1761 before rebounding. The price action reinforces our view wherein while the near-term outlook for EUR is negative, any weakness is unlikely to have enough momentum to...

Today’s macro calendar remains relatively quiet in Europe, as no first-tier economic data is lined up for release. Hence, the focus will remain on the speech by the...

The NZD/USD pair is trading at around 0.6900 up 0.55% on Wednesday.

FX Strategists at Scotiabank expect the pair to continue within the recent sideline theme in the near term.

The robust pace of the greenback is now forcing EUR/USD to trade in the 1.1770/60 band, fresh multi-month lows.

The dollar held firm near a five-month high on Wednesday helped by gains in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, while the euro shrugged off reports that a possible future Italian government would seek debt forgiveness from the European Central Bank.

We shifted from a bearish to a neutral stance on Monday (14 May, spot at 1.1950) and held the view that EUR has moved into a 1.1850/1.2050 consolidation range. The sharp and rapid decline yesterday that took out last week’s 1.1821 low was not exactly expected. However, we believe it is premature to...

The Yen, therefore, attempted a minor bounce versus its American rival, despite a weaker Japanese GDP print, and traded near 110.25 levels. The Aussie traded on the back foot amid risk-aversion and softer Australian wages data. However, the Kiwi ditched its OZ counterpart and...

The GBP/USD is trading at around 1.3511 down 0.33% on Tuesday’s trading.

The acceleration of the upside in the buck dragged EUR/USD to clinch fresh YTD lows around 1.1820, albeit gaining some attention afterwards.

The AUD/USD pair remained heavily offered on Tuesday and tumbled back below the 0.7500 handle during the early NA session.

Sterling edged up against the dollar on Tuesday after data showed UK employment jumped although wage growth has yet to rise sharply, a development analysts said was unlikely to alter the immediate outlook for Bank of England interest rate rises.

May (spot at 1.3570) that while the outlook for GBP is still deemed as bearish, the odds for further weakness to the year-to-date low of 1.3458 are not high. Since then, GBP traded mostly sideways before dipping to a low of 1.3460 last Thursday (10 May). The subsequent rapid bounce from the...

We have plenty of event risks, as we head into early Europe, with the German prelim GDP data to be reported at 0600 GMT while the Swiss PPI will be released at the European open. The main focus will be on the UK labor markets, with the key earnings data to...

The NZD/USD is trading at around 0.6930 down 0.52% on Monday.

The West Texas Intermediate is trading on a firm note at the beginning of the week after two consecutive daily declines, coming down from last week’s YTD peaks in the...

Even the prevalent mixed sentiment around equity markets, which tends to underpin the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand, did little to prompt any fresh selling, albeit now seems to...

The euro headed for a third successive day of gains on Monday as a weak dollar helped the single currency recoup losses, as investors kept a wary eye on political events in Italy.Italy’s anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the far-right League, both hostile to EU budget rules, spent the weekend in talks to forge a common policy programme.

In last Friday’s update (11 May, spot at 1.1920), we highlighted “the diminished odds for further EUR weakness” and the subsequent break of 1.1960 confirms that the bearish phase that started earlier this month has ended. The outlook for EUR is deemed as neutral now and...

The US dollar started the week on the back foot across the board, which emerged the main underlying theme in Asia this Monday, helping most majors recover some ground, as Treasury yields sagged. The Aussie emerged the strongest while the Kiwi traded better offered...

Market Events Ahead

The EUR/USD lost 0.08 percent in the last five days. The single currency is trading at 1.1950 as the USD depreciated as investors closed their long dollar positions. European Central Bank (ECB) President has stated that there are concerns about European growth, which could translate into...

The USD/CAD is trading at around 1.2786 up 0.18% on Friday.

The EUR/JPY is trading at around 130.60 up 0.20% as Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank just delivered a speech in Florence at the 8th edition of The State of the Union which is organized by the European University Institute.

Robert Rennie, Research Analyst at Westpac, explains that they have shifted back to a neutral stance on the basis of firstly that the US$ had come a long way in a short period of time and that a number of technical objectives were close to being achieved e.g. 50% retracement of 114.73 November high to 104.56 March low coming in at 109.73.

Sterling on Friday headed for its fourth successive weekly decline versus the dollar, in what would be a first for the currency since 2015, after the Bank of England held rates and cut its economic growth projections.The pound fell sharply after the BoE on Thursday held...

No change in view.In the latest update on Tuesday (08 May, spot at 1.3560), we left off with the view that the outlook for GBP is “still bearish but odds for further weakness to 1.3458 are not high”. GBP subsequently traded sideways and...

The USD/JPY pair hovered near the midpoint of the 109 handle while the Aussie traded well above the 0.75 handle. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD pair found some support from...

Analysts at Scotiabank explained recent data events, BoE and call for a lower pound.

The EUR/USD pair trimmed some of its post-US CPI strong gains and quickly retreated over 50-pips from multi-day tops.

In the latest update on Tuesday (08 May, spot at 1.1925), we left off with the view that EUR has to “stay below 1.1910/15 or the risk of a short-term low would increase quickly”.

The British Pound's relative underperformance against its European counterpart could further be attributed to the latest mixed UK macro releases, showing manufacturing output fell by -0.1% and...

Gold struggled to build on overnight rebound from the very important 200-day SMA region and was now seen oscillating in a...

The French, Swiss and German markets are closed today in observance of Ascension Day, leaving the focus on the UK docket, with a slew of macro news slated for release all at once at 0830 GMT. The UK industrial and manufacturing production data will be...

USD/JPY has popped the resistance of 109.30/40 and did so overnight in Tokyo, climbing to as high as 109.63 by the close of the opening hour.

FX Strategists at Scotiabank noted the pair could attempt a rebound to the area beyond the 1.2000 handle.

The GBP/USD is trading at around 1.3593 up 0.34% on Wednesday as investors are slowly unwinding their short GBP/USD positions ahead of the Bank of England rate decision and quarterly Inflation Report on Thursday.

The pair built on its Asian session up-move from the 109.00 handle and was further supported by a goodish pickup in the European equity markets, which was seen weighing on the...

The greenback, tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is prolonging the upside after recently breaking the key barrier at 93.00 the figure.The index advances for the fourth consecutive session today, extending the recent breakout of the 93.00 handle and...

The Japanese Yen was the weakest in Asia across the fx board today, as broad-based US dollar strength remained the underlying theme following Trump’s decision to pull out the US from Iran’s nuclear deal. Both crude benchmarks also benefited from the Iran deal fallout, having helped limit the...

AUD/USD spiked up towards the hourly 10-SMA while the dollar comes off a little from highs on the 93 handle at 93.2800.

The greenback keeps marching north on Tuesday and is now relegating EUR/USD to trade in the 1.1840 region, levels last seen in late December.

The softer tone around the European currency is dragging EUR/JPY to record fresh multi-week lows in the 129.20 region, just to rebound a tad afterwards.

The selling pressure around the single currency is accelerating on Tuesday following the recent breakout of key up barriers by the US Dollar Index. In fact, the buck moved higher today, surpassing the 93.00 milestone and dragging lower the pair and...

Forex today was driven by the fundamentals released from the Asia-pac economies, with the Aussie worst hit by the disappointing Australian retail sales releases, which overshadowed stronger Chinese trade figures. The Kiwi too followed suit and remained better offered amid a...

The NZD/USD is trading at around 0.7027 up 0.13% as the pair is mainly led by sentiment toward the US dollar.

The Japanese yen is showing little movement in the Monday session. In North American trade, USD/JPY is trading at 109.27, up 0.10% on the day.