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Our recent expectation for a stronger rebound in EUR was proven wrong as the break of the 1.1605 ‘key support’ yesterday resulted in a sharp drop to a low of 1.1539. From here, market is clearly eyeing the 1.1505/10 support as this level was tested twice in recent weeks but held (low of 1.1506 in late May and 1.1507 last week).

As the second half of 2018 gets under way, trade frictions appear to be escalating and geostrategic tensions have intensified with Washington threatening to curb Chinese investment in US technology firms, points out the research team at ANZ.

The focus for today remains the EU Summit, where the European leaders meet about a range of global economic issues, including migration, security, defense, and the economy, in Brussels. The main topic of discussion on agenda is likely to be the migrant policy, which will have a major impact on the bloc’s political stability, especially concerning the German political climate, with Merkel in disagreement with her coalition.

Oil prices jumped on Wednesday as plunging U.S. crude stockpiles compounded supply concerns due to uncertainty over Libyan exports, a production disruption in Canada, and U.S. demands that importers stop buying Iranian crude from November.

The pound fell against the euro and the dollar on Wednesday as imminent Brexit talks and doubts the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year darkened the outlook for the currency.

EUR edged above Monday’s 1.1713 high and touched 1.1720 before skidding to close lower for the first time in 3 days (NY close of 1.1645, -0.48%). Despite the relatively large drop, the undertone remains positive and we continue to see chance for a test if not a break of 1.1750.

Current Price: 145.03Daily High: 145.66Daily Low: 144.81Trend: Bearish ResistanceR1: 145.20 (horizontal level)R2: 145.68 (200-period SMA H1)R3: 145.97 (R1 daily pivot-point) SupportS1: 144.70 (bearish H&S neckline)S2: 144.39 (June 19 swing low)S3: 144.00 (round figure mark)

USD/CHF has not sustained its initial break of the 55 day ma and is trading back above here. Last week the market reversed from just below the psychological 1.0000 level and sold off and for now we will assume remains on the defensive. We would allow for a slide back to the recent low at .9789 and the 200 day ma at .9733.

EUR/USD has seen an initial halt at the previous 23.6% retracement at 1.1723. We look for it to recover further following last week’s key day reversal. It is likely that we will see a rally towards the 1.1733 resistance line. This guards the recent high at 1.1853/55.

The June selloff in global risk assets, which was sparked by a fresh round of global trade friction, continued Tuesday in most Asian markets but European stocks mostly advanced and U.S. benchmark stock indexes edged higher. Global trade friction, however, has had a subdued impact in supporting haven gold so far.

Trade tensions supported haven currencies like the Japanese yenUSDJPY, +0.10% against the dollar earlier in the Tuesday session, before they also fell prey to the strengthening buck. The buck last fetched ¥109.94, up 0.2%

Having found decent support near the 109.40-35 region, 55-day SMA, the pair started trending higher and has now added around 70-pips from session lows. Against the backdrop of a goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand, a positive opening across the US equity marketsweighed on the Japanese Yen's safe-haven appeal and provided an additional boost to the pair's up-move.

Sterling edged higher from the day’s lows on the back of a weaker dollar as worries about rising trade tensions between the United States and other leading economies kept risk appetite in check.

We highlighted yesterday (25 Jun, spot at 1.1660) that the recent downward pressure has eased and the positive bias suggests that EUR is more likely to test the top of the expected 1.1550/1.1750 consolidation range first. EUR subsequently touched a high of 1.1713 and...

Forex Today witnessed resurgent Yen demand in Asia, as risk sentiment continued to remain sour amid escalating global trade war fears, with the higher-yielding/ risk assets taking a beating across the board. The Asian stocks were hammered by risk-off trades while the Antipodeans traded on the back foot amid...

The dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Monday as worries about escalating trade tensions between the United States and other leading economies kept risk appetite in check.

The pound rose to a six-day high on Friday after a Bank of England meeting revived expectations of a rate hike this year, but fears of a breakdown in Brexit talks next week limited sterling’s gains. The British currency has struggled through much of June, weighed down by worries about a...

Our recent view that EUR “is not ready to reenter a bearish phase just yet” was proven right as it staged a strong up-move last Friday and hit a high of 1.1675. While this level was just below the ‘key resistance’ at 1.1680, the subsequent strong daily closing is enough to indicate that...

Transitory factors that contributed to weak inflation in 2017 have largely reverted. In 2018 and 2019, we expect core inflation to pick up gradually as labor markets tighten and the economy operates above potential.

China’s central bank announced on Sunday a 50bps reduction of reserve ratio requirements for some banks effective July 5, according to its website update. This is the third reduction this year and suggests a liquidity boost of about 700b yuan (approximately $108b) for the local banking system.

Japan's leading index improved more than initially estimated in April, latest figures from the Cabinet Office showed Monday. The leading index, which measures the future economic activity, rose to 106.2 in April from 104.5 in March. The flash score for April was 105.6.

Market events to watch this week

The US dollar is mixed against major pairs. Safe havens like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and the euro have gained against the greenback, while the Canadian and New Zealand dollars along with the pound are lower. Strong data in Europe boosted the single currency but the rally was short lived after...

The euro rose on Friday as traders were encouraged by improved regional economic growth data and new assurances by Italian politicians that their nation would not leave the single currency. The euro was on pace for a weekly gain of 0.29 percent against the dollar...

The USD/JPY pair stalled its up-move at the very important 200-day SMA and has now retreated few pips from session tops, touched earlier today. The US Dollar weakness remained unabated through the early North-American session and was further weighed down by weaker...

We have held the same view since Wednesday (20 Jun, spot at 1.1585) that “a dip below 1.1505 not ruled out but weakness is unlikely to be sustained”. EUR briefly touched 1.1507 yesterday before...

The recent mild downward pressure has eased and the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, AUD is expected to trade sideways for today, likely within a 0.7355/0.7415 range

The index is down for the second session in a row at the end of the week, coming down from yesterday’s fresh 11-month tops just beyond 95.50. The selling momentum in the buck picked up pace in tandem with shrinking concerns on the US-China trade front following escalating tensions at the beginning of the week.

EUR/USD has retested the 1.1510 May low. This has held the initial test and the market has charted a key day reversal. The daily RSI did not confirm the new low and there is a loss of downside momentum, we will exit our short positions for now

Italian stocks, meanwhile, fell into the red following reports that two euroskeptic lawmakers from Italy’s League party — Alberto Bagnai and Claudio Borghi — have been named as the head of the Senate’s finance committee and president of the House’s budget and finance committee, respectively.

On Tuesday, AMC will begin offering guests the option of seeing three movies per week for a monthly fee of $19.95. The subscription service, dubbed AMC Stubs A-List, will be offered through its loyalty program AMC Stubs. A-List will be a formidable opponent to MoviePass, whose majority owner is Helios & Matheson Analytics Inc.

The latest political development in Italy, where in Lega Nord’s Economist and euro-skeptic Alberto Bagnai was appointed Head of the Senate Finance Committee, prompted some safe-haven buying and triggered the initial leg of retracement.

The pound sank to a seven-month low on Thursday before a Bank of England monetary policy meeting where officials could indicate if interest rates will be raised this year despite a weak spell for the economy.

As highlighted yesterday, despite the recent weakness, we are not convinced that EUR has reentered a bearish phase. However, a dip below the year-to-date low of 1.1505 is not ruled out but at this stage, we do not...

Forex Today witnessed good two-way trading in Asia this Thursday, as a risk-on rally in the equities lifted the sentiment while weak fundamentals and US-China trade rhetoric kept the investors on the edge.

AUD has been hard hit along with Asian EM markets from imposition of US trade tariffs on China and is often viewed as a proxy for Chinese economic and financial risks, according to Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital.

Sterling slid to a fresh seven-month low against the dollar on Wednesday as concerns over the latest round of Brexit negotiations sapped demand for the British currency before a central bank meeting on Thursday.

The dollar paused on Wednesday after hitting a 11-month high in the previous session as investors consolidated bets after a recent rally, though concerns over a widening trade dispute between the United States and China kept sentiment on edge.

Improved risk appetite offered a sigh of relief across the fx board in Asia this Wednesday, as markets shrugged-off the renewed tensions over the US-Sino trade spat. However, most majors held onto tight trading ranges, as markets took a breather ahead of the key panel discussion at the European Central Bank (ECB) Sintra Forum.

The Australian Dollar has plummeted more than 9% off the yearly highs (nearly 6% year-to-date) with the decline now approaching initial support targets of interest. While the immediate risk remains lower in the Aussie, we’re on the lookout for near-term exhaustion in price. These are the updated targets & invalidations levels that matter for AUD/USD.

Earlier in the session, the GDT price index in New Zealand dropped by 1.2% in the bi-weekly auction following the 1.3% reduction seen in the previous auction, making it difficult for the kiwi to retrace its losses against the greenback.

The USD valuation remains as the main driver of the pair's price action in the FX markets on Tuesday. After retracing a portion of last week's gains on Monday, the US Dollar Index gathered momentum on Tuesday as the lack of fundamental catalysts allowed investors to stay focused on Fed's monetary policy outlook.

The auction comes amid a flurry of deal activity in Europe’s communications and broadcasting sector, with companies such as wireless giant Vodafone Group PLCVOD, -1.01% buying assets across Europe to offer packages of cable, internet, wireless and landline-phone services in a bid to win more customers.

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi’s speech is likely to hog the limelight in a data-light European session ahead. Draghi is due to deliver an introductory speech at 0800 GMT, as the two-day ECB Forum on Central banking begins in Sintra, Portugal.Markets eagerly await his comments on the monetary policy at the event, especially after the ECB announced last week that it would end the quantitative easing (QE) programme at the end of December 2018

Friday’s drop for the metal came as the U.S. dollar marked a 1.3% weekly gain, following a series of central-bank gatherings. A key move was the European Central Bank’s policy decision on Thursday to eventually unwind its crisis-era, easy-money programs but hold its benchmark rates at lower levels for a longer period than the market had expected.

The index seems to have recovered the smile at the beginning of the week and is now reverting Friday’s pullback, hovering over the 95.00 neighbourhood against the backdrop of a weaker tone in the risk-associated space. The greenback so far manages to leave behind another round in the US-China trade conflict, all amidst the recently imposed US tariffs on Chinese products and the subsequent retaliatory measures from the Asian economy.

Last week's Brexit voting in the UK's House of Lords handed a solid win to Prime Minister Theresa May, however that win carries a cost: managing to keep the UK's Parliament out of the ongoing Brexit negotiation process has increased the chances of a hard Brexit scenario, which is sapping what's left of any potential bullish momentum for the Sterling.

The US dollar gained against all major pairs this week. A hawkish Fed and a dovish European Central Bank (ECB) gave the edge to the American currency. Donald Trump scored diplomacy points in Singapore by meeting with North Korean leader Kim. Trade war fears were once again at the forefront as the Trump administration announced new tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday. Oil prices plunged as supply might be on the rise with heavy anticipation on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting on Friday.

Cable is rising modestly on Friday, recovering ground after yesterday’s slide. GBP/USD has been moving in a small range, still unable to recover the 1.3300 handle, between 1.3295 and 1.3260.The pair bottomed today at 1.3208, a 2-week low located slightly above year-to-date lows. It rebounded and during the US session hit at 1.3297 a fresh daily high...

After closing the previous day below the critical 0.75 mark with a daily loss of nearly 100 pips, the AUD/USD pair failed to make a meaningful recovery on Friday and continued to edge lower. As of writing, the pair was trading at its lowest level since mid-May at 0.7455 and losing 0.3% on the day. The first data from the United States on Friday...

Meanwhile, a weaker tone around commodity space did little to provide any additional boost to the commodity-linked Australian Dollar, with the pair failing ahead of the key 0.7500 psychological mark and quickly retreating around 15-pips from highs.

Meanwhile, escalating US-China trade tensions largely offset a positive opening across European bourses, and was seen lending some support to the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven appeal. Traders opted to take some profits off the table and seemed to be the only factors behind the pair’s retracement of around 40-pips from session high.

Thursday started off bullish for the Pound, with UK Retail Sales printing better than expected, with the m/m Retail Sales for May coming in at 1.3% versus the expected 0.5%. But the bull run sputtered out quickly, after the European Central Bank pushed out hopes of any rates hikes until after the summer of 2019.

Aside from the central banks, trade worries continued to be on investors’ minds on Thursday. President Donald Trump’s administration is preparing to announce tariffs on tens of billions of dollars in Chinese goods as early as Friday, a move that is feared to trigger retaliatory action by China. Trade concerns can be supportive for haven gold, although its direct impact has been limited so far.

The Sterling is trading on the right foot for yet another session, lifting GBP/USD to test the area of fresh 5-day tops in the vicinity of 1.3450.Cable is advancing for the second session in a row on Thursday, deriving support from the renewed selling bias around the greenback and auspicious results from the UK calendar.

The euro firmed up against the dollar on Thursday, ahead of a policy announcement from the European Central Bank, which may outline the bank’s plans for winding down its bond-buying program.Meanwhile, a popular gauge for the U.S. dollar continued to decline in the wake of an interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The dollar initially climbed after that decision, but then slipped as the upbeat mood faded. The Fed’s key interest rate now sits within a range of 1.75% to 2%, after the seventh hike since December 2015.

Asian stock markets were down in early trading Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates and indicated two more rate hikes were coming later this year.Japanese stocks opened lower, with just the fishery/ag/forestry and marine transportation sectors up.

The market has already priced in a decision by the Fed to raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.75% to 2%. This will be the second rate hike this year and the seventh move since the start of the tightening cycle.

Central banks will be in the spotlight this week, with rate statements from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the ECB on Thursday. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates, with odds of a quarter-rate hike at 94%. Although the rate increase has been priced in, the U.S dollar could still make some gains against its major rivals. In Europe, the ECB will be looking for any clues with regard to the ECB’s asset-purchase program.

UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline inflation rate is expected to print at 2.4 percent on-year in May, unchanged from the prior month. Leading PMI surveys argue for softer price growth however, echoing a string of recent disappointments on UK data outcomes relative to consensus forecasts. Such a result is likely to weigh on the British Pound.

Gold prices retreated as the US Dollar posted the largest increase in two weeks, extending its winning streak to a fourth consecutive day and undercutting the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. An upshift in the priced-in 2019 interest rate hike path implied in Fed Funds futures looks to have accounted for the move. In-line US CPI data passed largely unnoticed, as expected.

U.K. stocks fell Tuesday after a historic meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un resulted in an agreement that critics said was too broad in nature when it comes to denuclearization in the Korean Peninsula. The pound declined as attention to the Brexit debate among British lawmakers. Meanwhile, British wage-growth figures fell slightly short of expectations. How markets are performing

U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a joint document pledging to work toward the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but the statement was criticized as lacking detail on the verification of the process. Competition for market attention also fixed on interest-rate policy. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates after its two-day meeting, which begins Tuesday. European Central Bank policy makers are expected to announce the timing of a reduction of its crisis-era asset-purchase initiative when it meets on Thursday.

The votes in the House of Commons, the elected chamber, could influence negotiations over the future relationship between the European Union and the U.K. after Brexit. The results could also deliver a further blow to Prime Minister Theresa May’s authority, which was severely damaged when she lost her parliamentary majority after calling a general election last year.

Gains for European stocks largely faded Tuesday, with investors considering results of U.S. President Trump’s unprecedented summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore.The broader Stoxx Europe 600 Index SXXP, +0.07% slipped by less than 1 point to 387.80 after rising as much as 0.4%. The basic materials and oil and gas groups led declining sectors, but the utility and tech groups moved higher. On Monday, the index rose 0.7%, the first rise in five sessions.

AUD/USD retraces the decline from late last week even as the G7 Summit does little to ward off the threat for a global trade war, and the pair may continue to catch a bid over the next 24-hours of trade as the recent pickup in market sentiment appears to be gathering pace.

As for interest-rate policy, the key driver of currency and gold levels, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates after its two-day meeting that begins Tuesday. European Central Bank policy makers are expected to announce the timing of a reduction of its crisis-era asset-purchase initiative when it meets on Thursday.

The U.S. leader, who is now in Singapore to meet with his North Koreancounterpart, said “Fair Trade is now to be called Fool Trade if it is not Reciprocal,” and called into question the trading relationship between his country and some of its closest allies.

“GBP/USD continues to correct higher near term. The Elliott wavecount is pointing to a corrective rebound into the 1.3500 and then 1.3600 area, which is fairly tepid (this would not even represent a 38.2% retracement, which lies at 1.3652). We have a support line at 1.3354, which...

“An interesting and likely volatile week awaits GBP with risks skewed on the upside for EUR/GBP ahead of the House of Commons vote on the House of Lords’ amendments to the EU withdrawal bill on Tuesday”.“It is also a very busy week in terms of UK ...

The USD/JPY is trading sharply higher in Monday action, lifting to 109.80 as traders resume bidding, undeterred by the weekend's G7 trade spat.The Dollar-Yen pairing is lifting off of last week's swing low to end last Friday as markets step into the new week on decidedly...

Market events to watch this week

The US dollar is lower against major pairs this week as the market prepares for an eventful week. The U.S. Federal Reserve will kick off its June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday June 12. The two day meeting is expected to end with the announcement of a 25 basis points rate hike.

Sterling is likely to gain this year and by the time Britain leaves the European Union next March will have recouped a chunk of its losses since the June 2016 decision to leave the bloc, a Reuters poll suggested.

Momentum indicators are bullish and DMI’s are confirming. USDCAD has already breached the descending trend line drawn from the 2016-2017 highs and now risks an extension toward the one year March high around 1.3120. Near-term support is expected at 1.2950.

Exports were steady, rising 12.6% from a year ago, the same as in April, after the revisions. However, imports surged 26% but were expected to have slowed after the 21.5% rise in March. Meanwhile, the US-Chinese trade tensions come to a head next week.

The greenback is extending the up move vs. its Canadian neighbour at the end of the week, pushing USD/CAD further north of the psychological 1.3000 handle.The pair is up for the second consecutive session on Friday, surpassing the key 1.3000 mark on shrinking...

continues to rally but appears to be struggling ahead of the 55 day ma at 130.61 and downtrend at 131.15. Near term we unable to rule out scope for further gains to the 131.34/48 May highs and possibly even for the 133.48 April peak. The market is...

Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Jakob Christensen expects the Sterling to remain under pressure in the next weeks.“GBP had a volatile session yesterday with EUR/GBP bouncing above 0.88 on reports that David Davis threatened to quit due to a disagreement with Prime Minister May on the ‘Irish backstop’....

Sterling climbed to more than two-week highs on Thursday, helped by general dollar weakness thanks to a broadening rally in the euro currency, though concerns over Brexit negotiations capped gains.

The Japanese yen has posted modest gains in the Thursday session. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 109.99, down 0.17% on the day. On the release front, Japanese Leading Indicators improved to 105.6%, matching the forecast.

The pair’s near term outlook remains neutral, with the likelihood of a probable test of the upper end of the 108.50/110.50 range, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group.24-hour view: “Instead of trading sideways (as expected yesterday), USD broke above...

Having failed to clear 100-day SMA barrier, the AUD/USD pair lost some ground and eroded a part of previous session's strong up-move to six-week tops.With investors looking past yesterday's upbeat Aussie GDP growth figures, a weaker-than-expected Australian trade surplus data weighed on the domestic currency...

keeps the march north well and sound on Thursday, advancing to the 1.1800 neighbourhood on the back of renewed anxiety over next week’s ECB meeting. The pair has already gained around 3 cents since last week’s fresh cycle lows in the vicinity of ...

The British pound has posted slight gains on Wednesday, continuing the upward trend which marked the Tuesday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3409, up 0.11% on the day. On the release front, there are no major events out of the U.S or Britain. On Thursday, the U.K releases Halifax HPI and the U.S publishes unemployment claims.

Against the euro, the greenback is down 3.2 percent year-over-year, compared with a year-over-year decline of 14 percent in mid April. It hit a 10-month high on Tuesday as investors balked at the prospect of repeat elections in Italy, which may become a de facto referendum on Italian membership of the currency bloc.

The Ivey Purchasing Manager's Index (seasonally adjusted) for May stands at 62.5, indicating that purchases were less than the previous month," the Richard Ivey School of Business said in its latest report. The unadjusted version of the data came in at 69.5 vs. 70.4 in April.

The up move in the pair could extend further and test the 0.7080 region in the near term, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group.24-hour view: “Against our expectation, NZD did not break the major 0.7050 level as it slipped to a low of 0.6997 before rebounding. We continue to see chance for a move above 0.7050 but in view of the weakened momentum, a sustained up-move...

The USD/JPY pair caught some strong bids on Wednesday and was now seen building on its momentum further beyond the key 110.00 psychological mark. After yesterday's good two-way moves, the pair resumed with its prior appreciating move and spiked to 2-week tops in the last hour. The momentum remained unaffected by a weaker tone surrounding the US Dollar, with bulls seemed to track a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields.

The single currency is trading on a positive fashion on Tuesday, with EUR/USD looking to consolidate the recent breakout of the key 1.1700 milestone.The pair gained extra traction late on Tuesday and move above 1.1700 the figure particularly after a story run by news agency Bloomberg said the ECB could discuss the exit of its ‘quantitative easing’ programme at its meeting on June 14.

After losing ground for three consecutive days, gold is up on Tuesday. It is approaching the $1,300 area where the 20-day moving average stands. A daily close above could signal more gains ahead for the metal.

Forms a triple top bearish chart pattern on the 1-hourly chart and retracement back below 50-hour SMA prompted some fresh technical selling in the past hour, which could get extended towards 200-hour SMA support.

After closing the fourth straight day higher, the USD/JPY pair failed to extend its gains on Tuesday and retraced yesterday's upside. As of writing, the pair is trading at 109.70, around 10 pips above its daily low, and is down 0.1% on the day.

Sterling jumped on Tuesday after a survey showed companies in Britain’s dominant services sector grew more quickly than expected in May after a winter slump in early 2018.

The dollar stabilised on Tuesday just below its six-month high of last week, as investors awaited data that might confirm the U.S. economy is on track for a strong June quarter with rising bond yields also supporting the greenback.

Forex today witnessed tight trading ranges amid mixed market sentiment, as chances of a global trade war are on the rise, with Mexico, Canada and Europe retaliating to the US metals’ tariffs imposed last week.

The USD/JPY pair, which was able to close the previous week flat after a decisive recovery in the second half of the week, eased to a daily low of 109.37 during the European morning before reversing its course and advancing into the positive territory in the last hour. As of writing, the pair was trading at 109.70, adding 0.15% on the day. The pair's price action on Monday seems to be dominated by the USD's market valuation...

The GBP/USD pair faced rejection near the 1.3400 handle and quickly retreated around 40-pips from 1-1/2 week tops touched earlier. The pair initially built on last week's recovery move from the 1.3200 neighborhood, or 6-month lows, and was further supported by some renewed US Dollar selling bias, led by escalating trade tensions. The up-move got an additional boost following the release of yet another surprisingly stronger-than-expected UK macro data, this time coming in the form of UK construction PMI.

Last Friday, the USD/CHF pair recorded its fourth straight negative weekly close and failed to make a recovery in the first trading day of the new week. After refreshing its daily low at 0.9830 before American traders hit their desks, the pair erased a portion of its losses in the last hour and was last seen trading at 0.9855, where it was down 0.25% on the day. The pair's slump on Monday seems to be caused by a weaker USD rather than a strong CHF...

The single currency rallied on relief among investors that the new coalition government in Italy does not intend to head back to snap elections or exit the euro. Investors are scrutinising business surveys to try to get a sense of whether the UK economy is picking up in the second quarter after a sluggish start to 2018.