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EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): EUR is still weak, but prospect for a sustained break below the year-to-date low of 1.1297 is not that high. We highlighted yesterday, there is “ample room for EUR to weaken further to 1.1350”. EUR staged a minor bounce after ECB’s...

Forex Today experienced re-emergence of the risk-off sentiment in Asia this Friday, as the Yuan’s weakness added to ongoing market woes and dragged the risk assets sharply lower. The Asian equities and the US indices futures stalled the bounce and resumed the recent...

The EUR/JPY cross held on to its modest recovery gains, just above the 128.00 handle, and had a rather muted reaction to the latest ECB decision.The cross moved little after the ECB, at the October meeting, the reaffirmed to wind down its bond-purchase program by the end of this year and leave interest rates unchanged at least until next summer.

The pair has been trending lower along a short-term descending channel on the hourly chart and now seems to have stabilized near the 1.1400 handle, just above the trend channel support.Meanwhile, the fact that the pair remains well below important...

Gold reversed an early uptick back closer to over three-month tops and drifted into negative territory during the early European session.The overnight slump in the US equity markets had a spill-over effect on the Asian equity markets and underpinned the precious metal's safe-haven status at the start of Thursday's trading session.

The USD/JPY pair has managed to recover a major part of its early decline to over one-week lows and was now seen building on the momentum further beyond the 112.00 handle.The pair extended this week's retracement slide from the vicinity of the 113.00 handle and kept losing ground for the third consecutive session. The spill-over effect of the overnight rout in the US equities to the Asian markets on Thursday was seen underpinning the Japanese Yen's safe-haven appeal and eventually weighing on the major.

The pair kept losing ground through the mid-European session and is currently placed near the lower end of a short-term descending trend-channel, held over the past one-week or so.The fact that the pair remains well below important intraday moving averages - 50, 100 & 200-hour SMA, points to an extension of the ongoing bearish trajectory.

The GBP/JPY cross remained under some heavy selling pressure for the third consecutive session on Wednesday and dropped to fresh six-week lows in the last hour.Market expectations that the UK PM Theresa May will not accept the rumored EU offer of a UK-wide customs union as a way around the Irish backstop issue prompted some fresh selling around the British Pound.

The USD/CAD pair caught a fresh bid-wave and embarked upon a steady recovery mode to regain the 1.31 handle before meeting fresh supply at the last, as the bulls await the BOC monetary policy decision for the next push higher.The latest leg higher in the spot can be attributed to resurgent US dollar demand, mainly driven by a sell-off in the EUR and the GBP, in the wake of the European political woes. Moreover, markets prefer to hold the safe-haven US dollar in times of softer risk sentiment.

The AUD/USD pair surrendered early modest gains to levels beyond the 0.7100 handle and is currently placed at the lower end of its daily trading range. The pair built on previous session's late rebound from 1-1/2 week lows, with a combination of positive factors helping gains traction for the second consecutive session on Wednesday.

The pair struggled to build on overnight goodish rebound and was now seen retracing from an important horizontal resistance, near the 112.65 region.The pair now seems to be in the process of forming a bearish Head & Shoulders chart pattern on the 1-hourly chart, with neck-line support near the 111.95 region.

Gold extended its sideways price action on Wednesday and remained confined in a narrow trading range below $1235 level.After yesterday's strong upsurge to over three-month tops, and a subsequent retracement, the precious metal now seems to have entered a consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading range amid a combination of diverging forces.

After printing fresh daily tops in the boundaries of 1.1490, EUR/USD has now come under renewed selling pressure and is gyrating around the 1.1460 region.The pair clinched fresh session highs near 1.1490 in early trade following some selling pressure hitting the greenback along with declining US yields.

The Canadian dollar is trading sideways on Tuesday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3106, up 0.04% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events. In the U.S, the Richmond Manufacturing Index is expected to drop to 25 points. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada is expected to raise the benchmark rate to 1.75%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. its main rivals, has faded another test of the 96.15/20 band and is now navigating the sub-96.00 area.

Spot remains under pressure and navigates the lower end of the recent range and close to October’s low at 1.1432.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank point out that yesterday, the British Pound had its worst day in a month, dropping around -0.85% versus the dollar as Brexit negotiations continued and Prime Minister May faced down the conflicting flanks of her governing coalition.

In light of CME Group’s preliminary data for GBP futures markets, investors added more than 5K contracts to their open interest positions at the beginning of the week vs. Friday’s final 216,471 contracts. On the other hand, volume dropped for the second session in a row by around 5.7K contracts.

The GBP/USD pair extended its intraday retracement slide from 100-day SMA and has now erased all of Friday's goodish rebound from two-week lows. The pair's early European session uptick quickly ran out of steam ahead of the 1.3100 handle, with a combination of negative factors prompting some fresh selling at the start of a new trading week.

The pair built on its steady intraday climb from 100-hour SMA support and touched a 1-1/2 week high in the last hour, inching back closer to the 113.00 handle. The pair has been trending higher alongside a bullish channel on the 1-hourly chart, with bulls now eyeing a sustained break through the channel resistance.

London stocks firmed up on Monday, with banks on the move higher and miners getting a lift after China stocks had their best day in more than two years. Sterling weakness was also boosting stocks as investors watched for Brexit updates with Prime Minister Theresa May is due to make a statement to the House of Commons on Monday.

The bears fought back control in the European session, knocking-off the GBP/USD pair to fresh session lows below the 0.7050 level, as markets turn anxious amidst calls for a no-confidence motion to be tabled against the UK PM Theresa May.

The US dollar was mixed on Friday. Investor’s appetite for risk rose and safe haven currencies (JPY and CHF) fell while positive China and Brexit news saw the NZD, EUR, GBP and AUD advance against the USD. The Canadian dollar was dragged down in the last ...

Gold quickly reversed an early European session dip to $1223 area and is currently placed at the top end of its daily trading range, just above 100-day EMA. The US Dollar failed to build on/preserve early gains to fresh multi-week tops and was seen as one of the key factors underpinning the dollar-denominated commodity. This coupled with a fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade, as depicted by a weaker tone around equity markets boosted the precious metal's safe-haven appeal and remained supportive of the positive move.

“EUR/GBP continues to recover off the .8723 Fibonacci retracement which guards the 8700/.8697 June low.

The soft tone around the European currency triggered a sharp leg lower in the cross, forcing it to drop as low as the 128.30 area, or multi-week lows, on Thursday.

A fresh leg of a selloff in the US equity markets on Thursday benefitted the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status and prompted some aggressive selling around the major. The global flight to safety, reinforced by a sudden drop in the US Treasury bond yields, was seen as one of the key factors behind the pair's sharp intraday retracement of nearly 90-pips from a one-week high level of 112.73.

EUR/USD continues to grind lower this week, accelerating the downside to the mid-1.1400s after break below the critical support at 1.1500 the figure.

The GBP/USD pair struggled to build on its intraday recovery move from over one-week lows and is currently placed in neutral territory, just above the 1.3100 handle. The pair, for the second time this week, showed some resilience below ...

Major currencies were once again trading in tight ranges ahead of U.S. economic data, as investors digested the Treasury’s report on foreign exchange practices and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes. The Treasury refrained from labeling China a currency manipulator...

After bottoming out in the 1.1480 region during early trade, EUR/USD met dip-buyers and regained the 1.1500 barrier and beyond. Fresh USD-sellers appeared around the 95.80 region earlier in the day and prompted the current rebound in spot to the...

US Dollar Index looks to data. The upside momentum in the index gathered extra oxygen as of late after the FOMC minutes signaled on Wednesday that further tightening remains well on the cards by the Federal Reserve. In addition, the minutes discarded

Spot is coming under further selling pressure so far this week, breaking below the key support at 1.1500 the figure and opening the door for a potential text of 2018 lows at 1.1299.

USD/JPY is consolidating after the recent 280-pip drop. USD/JPY bulls will need to overcome the 200-period simple moving average or else a small pullback towards 112.00 can be on the cards. The RSI and MACD

EUR/JPY continues to trade in an erratic fashion so far this week, finding support in the 129.00 neighbourhood and with gains capped around the 200-day SMA, today at 130.75. A surpass of the 200-day SMA should open the door for a potential visit to the 21-day SMA just above 131.00 the figure.

Cable is likely to prolong the current consolidative theme in the next weeks, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group.

Gold reversed an early dip to the $1220 area and is currently placed at the top end of its daily trading range, just above $1225 level. The US Dollar failed to build on/preserve early modest gains to the 95.00 neighborhood and was seen as one of the key factors underpinning the dollar-denominated commodity.

Cable continues to look to September’s peak near 1.3300 for the time being.

Gold traded with a mild positive bias on Tuesday and remained within striking distance of 2-1/2 month high, set in the previous session. A combination of positive factors helped the precious metal to build on last week's strong bullish momentum and lifted it to an intraday high level of $1233.30, the highest since July 26.

The buying interest is now picking up pace around the Sterling and is lifting GBP/USD back above the 1.3200 handle, or daily highs.Cable picked up extra pace on Tuesday after UK’s Average Earnings inc. Bonus rose at an annualized 2.7%, surpassing initial estimates. In addition, the jobless rate stayed put at 4.0% in August.

The USD/CAD pair struggled to build on overnight modest rebound from multi-day lows and remained capped below the key 1.30 psychological mark. The pair extended last week's rejection slide from 100-day SMA and was kept losing ground for the third consecutive session on Monday. A combination of factors exerted some heavy downward pressure and dragged the pair to an intraday low level of 1.2955.

The USD/JPY pair caught some fresh bids on Tuesday and recovered a major part of its overnight slide to near one-month lows. With investors looking past previous session's disappointing US monthly retail sales data, the US Dollar regained some positive traction and was seen as one of the key factors driving the pair higher.

We indicated last Friday “the rebound in AUD has scope to extend higher but strong resistance is expected at 0.7155

The AUD/USD pair regained positive traction at the start of a new trading week and has now moved within striking distance of over one-week tops set on Friday. The pair, for the second straight session, managed to find decent buying interest near the 0.7100 handle and was supported by a subdued US Dollar demand. Despite some renewed uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, the USD struggled to build on Friday's up-move/preserve early gains and was seen as one of the key factors driving the pair higher.

The pair has started the week on a positive note so far, leaving behind Friday’s pullback. Initial support emerges at the 10-day SMA in the 1.1530 region, coincident with recent lows. A breakdown of this zone should pave the way for another test of the key support at the 1.1500 neighbourhood.

The cross gapped lower at the start of a new trading week and now seems to have confirmed a bearish breakthrough a near four-week-old trading range.

The USD/JPY pair was now seen weakening farther below the 112.00 handle and dropped to near one-month low in the last hour. After a good two-way price action over the past two-way trading sessions, the pair came under some renewed selling pressure at the start of a new trading week amid a fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade.

The US dollar was higher against major pairs on Friday, but not enough to end up the week on positive territory. A stock market rout took its toll on the greenback and the subsequent rebound in stock prices supported the...

Following yesterday's impressive upsurge, the AUD/USD pair stayed relatively calm in a tight range above 0.71 for the majority of the day on Friday before gaining traction in the last hour. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.7135, adding 0.15% on the day.

No change. GBP/USD’s outlook is neutral to slightly positive. Very near term it is creeping higher. The market has recently recovered just ahead of Fibo support at 1.2905 and attention is now on 1.3298 the September high and 1.3363 the July high.

The USD/JPY pair failed to capitalize on its early positive momentum and quickly retreated around 25-pips from session tops. The pair stalled its overnight rebound from near one-month lows and once again met with some fresh supply near mid-112.00s, rather unaffected by a modest US Dollar rebound.

Less helpful though for the Aussie’s attempt to rally from 32 month lows near 0.7000 was the poor sentiment in Chinese equities. This was initially only a background concern for AUD but equity weakness was much harder to ignore on Wednesday when US markets posted their largest losses since February.

“EUR/USD continues to recover from just ahead of 1.1411, the 78.6% retracement.

The Sterling has coiled into a tight consolidation range through Friday's early Asian action as the pair winds into the end-week's European markets.

The Canadian dollar has edged lower in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3042, down 0.19% on the day. On the release front, Canada releases the New Housing Price Index, which is expected to post a gain of 0.1% for a third straight month. In the U.S., CPI and Core CPI are both expected to post gains of 0.2%. As well, unemployment claims are forecast to remain pegged at 207 thousand. On Friday, the U.S releases a key consumer confidence gauge, UoM Consumer Sentiment.

The pair is now extending the rebound from recent lows in the 1.1430 zone seen earlier in the week amidst a persistent selling mood hitting the buck. The greenback continues to suffer the sour sentiment in the US stocks markets, as futures keep pointing to a weak start later today while yields of the key US 10-year note manage to rebound from recent lows.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Near term corrective. Could test 1.1590 and above...

Less helpful though for AUD/USD’s attempt to rally from 32 month lows near 0.70 was the poor sentiment in Chinese equities. This was a background concern for AUD but equity weakness was much harder to ignore when US markets posted their largest losses since February

The Cable saw plenty of buying pressure in the early Asia session, and now the GBP/USD is heading into the upcoming London market session near 1.3225.

Crude-oil futures early Wednesday in New York traded on either side of break even, bouncing around as investors watched Hurricane Michael, which has intensified to Category 4 storm and was barreling down on Florida, and weighed the impact of pending U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude exports...

AUD/USD Fails ahead of 200-hour SMA, back below 0.71 mark amid renewed USD buying...

We examine the same criteria as the US Treasury and find that while various countries in Asia breached two of their thresholds, none is likely to be labelled as a currency manipulator...

Emerging economies are at risk of capital flight at levels unseen since the financial crisis and markets are "complacent” about financial conditions, according to the global lender of last resort. Developing markets, including ...

The British pound edged 0.4 percent lower at $1.3041 nearing a one-month low hit last week. Against the euro, the British currency was 0.2 percent weaker at 87.86 pence. The pound can definitely move higher from current levels but the markets are waiting for news on...

EUR/USD continues to post losses this week. In the Tuesday session, the pair is trading at 1.1449, down -0.37% on the day. There are no key eurozone or U.S. events on the schedule. Germany’s trade surplus has climbed to ...

The GBP/USD pair struggled to build on its early positive momentum to 100-day SMA hurdle and has now drifted into negative territory for the second straight session. After an initial uptick to levels just above the 1.3100 handle, the pair met with some ...

Gold prices may already have hit bottom for the year after declining for the past six months in a row—the longest streak of losses in nearly three decades. Lower prices have contributed to a boost in global central-bank purchases of gold. Other signs of...

EUR long positions had already dropped heavily in the middle of September. Although they subsequently won back some ground, they fell back into negative ground again last week. GBP shorts have been choppy in recent weeks...

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that the US growth surprise allowed rate hikes but higher interest rates are no longer necessary. He further added that the...

The EUR/JPY pair closed at 130.96 on Friday, confirming a downside break of the trendline connecting the Aug. 15 low and Sept. 10 low.The daily chart also shows a bearish crossover between the 5 and 10 exponential moving average (EMA). So, it seems safe to say that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

he US dollar was mixed Friday. The greenback advanced against the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD AND NZD) edging higher against the CHF, but was lower agains the JPY and the EUR. The GBP deserves a special...

The EUR/JPY pair has found acceptance below the 50-hour, 100-hour, and 200-hour exponential moving averages (EMAs), having established lower highs and lower lows pattern on the hourly chart in the last seven days.

The EUR/USD pair broke down of its Asian/early European session consolidative trading range and dropped to fresh session lows, below mid-1.1700s in the last hour. A goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand was seen as one of the key factors exerting some fresh downward pressure over the past hour or so, with the pair erasing of the previous session's modest gains to the 1.1800 neighbourhood.

EUR/GBP main bull trend remains intact as the market is trading above its 100 and 200-day simple moving averages. EUR/GBP is finding some support at 0.8940 (August 14 high) as the market is consolidating the gains made last week. While the RSI is bullish, the MACD and Stochastics indicators are losing some momentum. However, bulls can come back at any time and put an end to the pullback by lifting the market to 0.9000 figure and 0.9032 (August 9 high)

The pair has been steadily climbing alongside a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on the 1-hourly chart since the early North-American session on Friday. The positive momentum stalled near the trend-channel resistance, also coinciding with 200-hour SMA amid a fresh wave of broad-based USD selling pressure. Considering the pair's recent decline, the ascending channel seems to constitute towards a bearish flag chart pattern formation on the mentioned chart.

Analysts at RBS note that the foreign appetite for US financial assets shows few signs of waning. Key Quotes “Net foreign demand for long-term US securities rebounded to $74.8bn in July after net sales of $36bn in June, driven by significant overseas buying of US securities and sizeable US sales of foreign financial assets.”

The cross is extending the recent breakout of the critical 200-day SMA at 131.10, trading well above the 132.00 handle although below Friday’s tops just beyond 133.00 the figure. The recent up move has retaken the 133.00 handle and above at the end of last week, although sellers showed up afterwards. Still on the upside, the next target is now April’s top at 133.53. If momentum picks up further pace, YTD top at 137.53 (February 2) should be back on the radar. The constructive view remains in place as long as the short-term support line, today at 129.58, underpins.

According to Axel Rudolph, Senior Analyst at Commerzbank, the pair’s stance remains offered while below 0.9789. Key Quotes “USD/CHF’s is back under pressure and nears the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at .9524. Below it lie the February high at .9470 and the mid- and late March lows at .9434/25. Further down the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement can be spotted at .9376. Rallies should find initial resistance offered by the 200 day ma at .9735 and remain contained by the .9789 June low”.

24-hour view: “While we highlighted yesterday “the consolidation phase appears to be close to completion”, our expectation for a likely downside break was wrong. EUR staged an abrupt and sharp rally that blast past the major 1.1725/35 resistance zone and came close to the next major resistance at 1.1790 (overnight high of 1.1785). The strong surge seems to be running ahead of itself but there is ample room for a move above 1.1790. That said, the June’s peak near 1.1851 is likely out of reach for today (minor resistance at 1.1825). On the downside, 1.1720 is expected to be strong enough to hold any intraday pullback (minor support is at 1.1750)”.

The AUD/USD pair broke its upside consolidation phase in early Europe and peeped briefly above the 0.73 handle before meeting fresh supply to now revert towards the 0.7285 region.

The GBP/USD is trapped in a tight range heading into Friday's London market session after seeing firm gains through Thursday's trading action, busting through the 1.3200 technical level as broader markets recover from recent trade war angst.

EUR/USD appears reluctant to tackle resistance offered by the 1.1745/50 area and the 1.1790 recent high. This has rejected the market many times and remains formidable resistance.

EUR/JPY keeps trading on a positive note on Wednesday, extending the rally beyond 131.00 the figure and at the same time re-taking the key 200-day SMA. The continuation of the bull run should allow for a test of July’s top just beyond the 132.00 milestone ahead of April’s high in the mid-133.00s. In addition, the cross remains constructive as long as the short-term support line, today at 129.03, holds. ‍

Analysts at TD Securities suggests that as the third $200bn batch of Section 301 tariffs on China has been announced by the Trump Administration, but they expect US inflationary impacts to be modest, along with negative growth impacts. Key Quotes “The finalized tariff list still targets a minority share of consumer goods and an even smaller share of the CPI basket. Import market share of the targeted goods is relatively small, and pass-through from capital and intermediate goods prices, which will bear the brunt of the tariff impact, is also low for the relevant categories.”

Advanced figures for GBP futures markets showed investors added just 770 contracts on Monday vs. Friday’s final 314,579 contracts, according to CME Group. On the other hand, volume dropped by almost 66.6K contracts. GBP/USD could test the 100-day SMA at 1.3170

The pair should keep the constructive outlook while above the 110.76, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.Key Quotes “USD/JPY is probing the 112.00/15 resistance and for now, while underpinned by the uptrend today at 110.76, our bias is positive. The market has recently tested and recovered from support offered by the 55 week moving average at 110.38 and the 200 day moving average at 109.76.

The Sterling is looking for higher gains as Brexit hopes push traders into the bullish camp. With trade wars beginning to ramp-up, buying pressure is going to face severe headwinds. The economic calendar remains thin until Wednesday's inflation reading for the UK, leaving buyers to look up towards the 200-day EMA slung high above current prices. ‍

EUR/JPY is extending the bounce off Friday’s lows and is now resuming the upside with immediate target the 200-day SMA, today at 131.11. A surpass of the key 200-day SMA should pave the way for a continuation of the bull run to July’s tops in levels just above 132.00 the figure. On the downside, the 129.00/50 band should offer decent contention. This area is coincident with late July lows and the 21-day/55-day/10-day SMA. ‍

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that in Sweden, the highlight of the day will be the minutes from the 6 September Riksbank meeting, which will be scrutinised for clues about the next policy step. Key Quotes “We will look for an indication of a first policy hike in either December or February.”

The Sterling-Dollar pairing is looking for more bullish momentum despite the US Dollar's broad-market bull moves recently.

The dollar bounced back on Friday, after a couple of economic indicator misses this week, the greenback is higher against all major pairs. Major pairs and commodities are lower against the greenback ahead of the weekend. The American currency did not....

The cross is prolonging the march higher today, adding to Thursday’s strong advance to the boundaries of 131.00 the figure on the back of the persistent improved tone in the risk-associated complex. EUR/JPY is already flirting with the 200-day SMA near 131.15 and opens the door for the continuation of the up move to. Initially, July’s tops just beyond the 132.00 milestone.

According to CME Group’s advanced figures for EUR futures markets, investors added around 16.8K contracts to their open interest position on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s final 549,540 contracts. In the same line, volume rose to its second largest level so far this year above 751K contracts, up by more than 231K from the previous day and recording the third build in a row.

The GBP/USD pair finally broke out of its Asian session consolidation phase and refreshed six-week tops in the last hour.The pair built on its bullish trajectory further beyond the 1.3100 handle, with a combination of supporting factors confirming that the near-term positive momentum remains well intact.The US Dollar continues to be weighed down by Thursday’s weaker than expected US consumer inflation figures, which coupled with Brexit optimism helped the pair to continue gaining positive traction for the fifth consecutive session.

24-hour view: “The sudden acceleration higher in USD that hit an overnight high of 111.99 was clearly not expected. Upward momentum has improved by considerably and from here, a move above the August’s peak of 112.14 would not surprise at all. However, the next resistance at 112.60 could be just out of reach for today. On the downside, we expect 111.35 to be strong enough to hold any intraday pull-back (minor support is at 111.60)”.

The shared currency remained apathetic after the ECB decision today, with EUR/USD a tad lower in the 1.1715/10 band. EUR/USD now focused on Draghi’s presser The pair remains in the upper end of the weekly range after the ECB’s Governing Council left its monetary conditions unchanged at today’s meeting, falling in line with market expectations.

Cable remains neutral although there is still scope for a test of 1.3170, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “GBP traded between 1.2980 and 1.3083 yesterday, higher than our expected 1.2960/1.3065 consolidation range. While upward momentum is not strong, there is room for GBP to edge above the overnight high of 1.3083 even though a break of the next resistance at 1.3105 would come as a surprise. Support is at 1.3020 but only a break of 1.2990 would indicate that a short-term top is in place”.

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that the key event today is the ECB meeting, in addition to the BoE meeting. Key Quotes “Albeit we do not expect big communication changes, the ECB will present new staff projections. We expect a marginal downward revision of the 2019 and 2020 projections, but no new policy signals as the central bank has been content with the current economic path and the market reaction to the recent increased forward guidance in June.”

“USD/CAD managed to heave itself from its August low at 1.2888 to its early September high at 1.3225 before coming off again”.