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According to the CFTC positioning data for the week ending 20 June 2017, leveraged funds were net sellers of the USD for the fifth straight week despite the US Federal Reserve delivering a rate hike at its June meeting, notes the analysis team at ANZ.

The pull back in the EUR/USD ran out of steam last week around 1.1124 (23.6% Fib R of Apr 10 low - June 14 high). The spot recovered losses to end on a flat note (at 1.1192) for the second consecutive week.

Tech stocks and stabilizing commodity prices helped stocks in Asia start the week on an up note amid a lack of major data releases or other market catalysts. After notching a fifth straight weekly decline, oil prices rose steadily in Monday-morning trading,

Fed Rhetoric Fails to Boost Dollar. Improving European manufacturing balanced euro against dollar.The majority of policy makers agree that the massive balance sheet accumulated during the quantitative easing program from the US central bank should start shrinking sooner rather than late

Despite recent disappointing inflation prints, Fed maintains that recent inflation misses are largely due to one-off factors and that above-trend growth will keep the unemployment rate below NAIRU, helping to nudge inflation toward target next year, suggests analysis team at Deutsche Bank.

The bulls have regained poised in the Asian session on the final trading day of the week, allowing GBP/JPY to build onto yesterday’s gains, in a bid to regain 141.50 barrier. GBP/JPY makes higher lows on daily charts

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 29 May 17, 1.1180): Increasing risk of a break below 1.1105/10. EUR traded quietly yesterday and we continue to hold the view that the downside risk is greater.

Bloomberg carries a piece on gold-price outlook in the coming months, noting that the outlook for the yellow metal remains divided, with the bear trend descending from record high in 2011 still intact, while higher highs, higher lows signal recent rally may have legs.

Increased regulatory scrutiny over the borrowings of China’s most prolific overseas deal makers weighed on mainland markets Friday, as trading elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region was lackluster.

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 29 May 17, 1.1180): Increasing risk of a break below 1.1105/10. We indicated yesterday that a shift to a bearish phase would not surprising unless EUR can “move and stay above 1.1175 within these few days”. The overnight high has been 1.1169 and we continue to hold the view that the immediate risk is greater on the downside.

The AUD/USD pair ran through some fresh offers and has now surrendered majority of its early gains to session tops near 0.7575 level. The pair failed to build on early up-move amid weaker tone surrounding commodity space, led by the ongoing slump in oil prices. Adding to this, the prevalent cautious environment was also seen boosting the US Dollar's safe-haven appeal against its Australian counterpart.

Gold built on previous session's recovery move from 5-week lows and jumped back above $1250 level, closer to weekly highs. The ongoing slump in oil prices pushed down the US equity markets and was seen extending support to the precious metal's safe-haven appeal.

The single currency is posting marginal gains vs. the greenback following the closing bell in Asia, with EUR/USD hovering over the upper end of the range near 1.1170.

Oil prices continue to slide and have now fallen into ‘bear’ territory, dropping 20% this year, notes the analysis team at ANZ.

The dollar held steady below a one-month high against a basket of currencies on Thursday, consolidating recent gains tied to bets the U.S. central bank could increase rates once more later this year.

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the pair’s outlook remains neutral, with a potential test of 1.1100 still on the cards.

The Bank of England (BOE) published its latest Agents' Summary of Business Conditions report, noting that UK economy has continued to grow moderately.

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the (falling) price of oil is driving FX (and most other) markets as brent has now corrected almost exactly 38.2% of the bounce from the low early last year (just above $26/bbl) to this year’s peak of $56.5.

EUR/USD: Downward momentum not strong but room for further weakness towards 1.1105/10. EUR hit a low of 1.1117, holding well above the major support indicated at 1.1105/10 yesterday. While downward momentum is not that strong...

Leading index points to moderating growth pulse. The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of Australian economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, eased from 1.01% in April to 0.62% in May, explains Matthew Hassan, Senior Economist at Westpac.

BOJ Summary of Staff Reports on Economic and Financial Developments: A. Money Market Operations in the Intermeeting Period B. Recent Developments in Financial Mark C. Overseas Economic and Financial Developments

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 29 May 17, 1.1180): Increasing risk of a break below 1.1105/10. EUR declined sharply yesterday after edging above the key short-term resistance at 1.1210 (high of 1.1213). The pace and extent of the drop and the subsequent weak daily closing has shifted the pressure towards the downside again.

The much-awaited Mansion House speech by the Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney is now underway, with the central bank chief noting the following:

The minutes to the RBA’s June monetary policy meeting mainly reiterated the key points from the Governor’s decision statement and the additional ‘message’ from previous minutes – that the Bank’s main focus was on developments in labour and housing markets, according to Matthew Hassan, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Oil prices remain under pressure as OPEC’s efforts to curb supply, and rebalance the market, continue to be challenged by other sources of supply, according to the analysis team at ANZ.

Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research argues that as the markets have been predominantly focused on the current inflation data and appear to be pricing in an overly cautious Fed, there is a room for the US yields and the USD to rebound further as these Fed expectations are at least partly reversed.

Buoyant risk sentiment globally continues to help the NZD and hurt the safe-haven yen and Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, expects NZD/JPY to test 80.70 level this week.

Gold came under some renewed selling pressure on Monday and fell to the lowest level in around four weeks during early European session. A positive opening in the European equity markets, pointing to improving investors' appetite for riskier assets, was seen weighing on traditional safe-haven assets and has been the sole driver of the precious metal's latest leg of fall in the past hour or so.

Almost a year since Britons voted to leave the European Union, Brexit talks finally open on Monday amid confusion over just what the U.K. government wants from the divorce. What U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis describes as the “most complicated negotiation of all time” begins at 11 a.m. in Brussels with Prime Minister Theresa May’s government already on the backfoot.

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 29 May 17, 1.1180): In a 1.1140/1.1265 range. We indicated last Friday that EUR is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move and stay above 1.1210. The unexpected rapid rebound just edged above 1.1210 at the time of writing (high of 1.1212) and the downward pressure has eased.

As expected, the FOMC raised its targets for short-term interest rates and analysts at Nomura explained that beyond that widely expected decision, the FOMC and Chair Yellen sent two strong messages.

The market has been searching for a spark this morning. No doubt dealers are suffering a mild case of Central Bank fatigue as the market remains in flux digesting last week’s “hawkish Fed hike “ among other central bank hawkish surprises. I suspect the dollar will be susceptible in both directions given that the impact of soft US economic data persists while clashing with an overly hawkish Janet Yellen.

Dollar Struggles Despite Fed Rate Hike Boost. The US dollar will end the week down against most major pairs even after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 basis points and the plan to keep tightening via more rate hikes and a reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet was part of the communication on Wednesday.

Bloomberg reporting latest headlines on the Brexit deal, citing that Brexit negotiations will start at 11:00 CET (10am GMT) on Monday in Brussels.

Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Jens Pedersen sees spot grinding lower towards the 1.100 handle and possibly below in the next weeks.

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 29 May 17, 1.1180): Immediate downward pressure towards 1.1105/10. The sharp and sudden decline that easily took out the strong 1.1150 support was unexpected (low of 1.1130). While downward momentum has improved considerably, we are not ready to adopt a bearish stance just yet.

The bears are fighting back control, as we progress towards the European opening, with the EUR/USD pair testing daily lows of 1.1138. EUR/USD back below 1.1150 levels

Talk of the Fed sleepwalking into a dreaded policy error looks to be picking up, according to the analysts at ANZ.

Equity markets across Asia moved higher on Friday, shrugging off technology-led declines overnight in the U.S., as a stronger U.S. dollar boosted export stocks in the region. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average NIK, +0.76% was up 0.5% as the yen weakened.

The selling pressure around the precious metal stays unabated today, dragging the ounce troy to test multi-week lows in the $1,260 area. The demand for the safe haven metal continues to dwindle today following the Fed’s decision to hike the Fed Funds target range by 25 bp to 1.00%-1.25% on Wednesday, matching the broad consensus.

It was a solid update from Australian May lobour force survey and while most of the employment gains were in NSW, all other mainland states had a sound report with positive employment and falling unemployment, explains Justin Smirk, Research Analyst at Westpac.

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 29 May 17, 1.1180): In a 1.1150/1.1300 range. The sharp rise above 1.1265/70 yesterday (high of 1.1295) has put paid to our expectation of a pull-back towards 1.1130. The outlook for EUR remains neutral for now but we expect this pair to trade sideways between 1.1150 and 1.1300. The undertone is still on the weak side but only a move below the rising trend-line support at 1.1150 would indicate the start of a sustained down-move.

There’s no end in sight to slumping oil prices. That’s good news for consumers, but a dire trend for major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia. And now, rising US oil production and exports are contributing to the slump.

Bas van Geffen, Quantitative Analyst at Rabobank, explains that they expect no change at today’s Bank of England meeting, and also expect steady policy well into next year and potentially through into 2019.

The Chinese People's Bank of China (PBOC) will not necessarily follow the Federal Reserve's overnight rate hike in the near-term as the world' second largest economy seeks stability ahead of a leadership reshuffle this fall, observers said Thursday.

The Bank of Japan is set to keep monetary settings unchanged on Friday and reassure markets it will lag way behind the Federal Reserve in dialing back its massive stimulus program, with inflation stubbornly low despite a strengthening economy.

Jonathan Xiong, head of the Fixed Income Alternatives Group at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, expects the BOJ to maintain the yield curve control (YCC) policy framework for a long period of time.

The renewed uptick seen in EUR/USD ran into resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.1225 in early Europe, knocking-off rate back to 1.12 handle. EUR/USD awaits US CPI and FOMC Over the last hour, the spot fights hard to keep the 1.12 handle, deriving support from upbeat Eurozone industrial production and employment data, while cross-driven strength also offers some respite to the EUR bulls.

Former Fed board member Kochlakota crossed the wires earlier today, via Reuters, expressing his take on the FOMC decision due to be announced in the American afternoon today.

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 29 May 17, 1.1180): Immediate downward pressure towards 1.1130. No change in view. Despite the recent lackluster price action, we still think there is room for the current pull-back in EUR to extend lower. However, the rising trend-line support has moved higher with time and is currently sitting at 1.1130. This is a rather strong support but a break of this level would increase the odds of a move below the 1.1105/10 the low seen in late May. Overall, EUR is expected to stay under pressure unless it can reclaim 1.1265/70. On a shorter-term note, 1.1235 is already a strong resistance.

At this point it would be very surprising if the FOMC does not raise its target rate for the funds rate to 1-1.25%, according to the analysts at Nomura.

European Central Bank board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger crossed the wires now, via Reuters, urging banks to take ‘Hard Brexit’ issue seriously.

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 29 May 17, 1.1180): Immediate downward pressure towards 1.1130. Despite the recent lackluster price action, we still think there is room for the current pull-back in EUR to extend lower. However, the rising trend-line support has moved higher with time and is currently sitting at 1.1130. This is a rather strong support but ...

Nordea FX Strategy Research recommends staying short-term bearish EUR/USD on the ground of the following 6 reasons:

The Bank of Japan rebuffed speculation that it was engaging in "stealth tapering" Its reduced bond buying reflected receding upward pressure on Japanese yields from U.S. Treasuries.

The research team at Westpac recommends to sell EUR/GBP cross with the following parameters

After yesterday's corrective dip, the NZD/USD pair regained traction on Tuesday and extended its up-move further beyond the 0.7200 handle. The latest leg of up-move could be solely attributed to subdued action around the US treasury bond yields that failed to extend any support to the US Dollar but was seen benefitting higher-yielding currencies - like the Kiwi.

EUR/USD: ECB out, eyes on FOMC | The EUR/USD pair remains better bid heading into Europe, consolidating the recovery from weekly lows of 1.1166, as markets digest reports of Macron's sweeping parliamentary election Round 1 victory.

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is stuck around a bearish 20 SMA that converges with the 100 SMA in the 4 hours chart around 1.1220, while technical indicators are recovering, but within bearish territory, indicating that buying interest is still limited

Sterling’s sell-off on Friday clearly aided the bounce, ending the day more than 1.5% lower against the dollar and vulnerable to further downside

Gold attracted some fresh buying interest near $1265 region and snapped three consecutive days of losing streak amid prevalent risk-off environment. It, however, remains to be seen if the up-move is backed by any genuine buying or is solely led by short-covering ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision and updated economic projections. Clues over the central bank's near-term monetary policy outlook would now act as the next catalyst determining near-term trajectory for the non-yielding commodity.

UK, Switzerland, Japan and US central banks to deliver statementsThe US dollar is mixed against majors in a week that saw geopolitical factors drive markets. The surprising result of the UK elections with conservatives being forced to partner to form a government has the pound depreciating across the board. Commodity […]

EUR/USD: Neutral: Bullish again if NY closing above 1.1300.While the rapid drop in EUR took out the short-term key support at 1.1220, it rebounded quickly from a low of 1.1203. The recent positive undertone has eased off but barring a clear break below 1.1200, there is still a slight upside bias. However, as indicated in […]

The Australian dollar had a quiet session overnight, clinging onto gains achieved during the Asian session following the release of Australia’s Q1 GDP report.While quarterly growth, at 0.3%, was in line with market expectations, many had adopted the view that the figure would be significantly weaker, leading to the pop in […]

The increasing bid tone around the Sterling force EUR/GBP to quickly come down from the 0.8770 area to session lows around the 0.8700, where it is now looking to rebound.EUR/GBP weaker on GBP bounceThe cross has deflated from last week’s fresh 3-month tops in the upper-0.8700s following a sharp rebound in the demand for the […]

Crude futures rose on Monday after a political rift in the Middle East escalated when Saudi Arabia and three other countries severed diplomatic ties with Qatar.Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates all cut ties with Qatar on Monday, accusing it of meddling in their internal affairs and backing […]

EUR/USD: Neutral: Bullish again if NY closing above 1.1300.EUR closed at 1.1280 in NY last Friday, below the key level of 1.1300. We have held the same view that only a NY closing above 1.1300 would indicate that this pair has moved into a bullish phase again. This scenario still seems likely as long as the key support at […]

Analysts at BBH explain that sterling was range-bound last week (~$1.2770 to $1.2920) but the technical indicators look constructive which may be a reflection of a heavy dollar.Key Quotes“The outside up day posted in the middle of the week did not see follow-through buying, but rather back-to-back inside days.   Sterling […]

According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, net bullish positions in gold rose for the second straight week, hitting the highest level in four weeks.The non-commercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures gained 7,323 contracts over the […]

US Jobs growth slows down to 138,000The US dollar is lower across the board versus major currencies. The U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) grew by 138,000 jobs in May short of the 180,000 forecasted and there were downward revisions to the two previous months. The employment trend continues to be strong as evidence by the fall […]

Forex today was mainly dominated by a broad based GBP weakness on latest poll, which revealed that UK Conservatives are projected to fall 16 seats short of overall majority in the upcoming June 8 election. The Antipodeans also remained under pressure, despite upbeat macro news from China, with the Chinese factories […]

EUR/USD: Neutral: Immediate downward pressure to 1.1025.In the update yesterday, we were of the view that EUR is about to stage a deeper pull-back towards the major support at 1.1025. The subsequent rebound from a low of 1.1108 took out the strong 1.1190 resistance but eased off quickly from a high of 1.1205. While downward […]

The analysis team at Westpac is recommending to sell EUR/AUD cross with the following parameters“Entry: 100% at 1.5000, Stop: 1.5120, Target: 1.4730.”Key Quotes“Rationale: ECB Pres. Draghi’s recent message was that the Eurozone still needs extraordinary support from monetary policy, including the use of the ECB’s forward […]

Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research advises USD bulls to be patient in light of the following 5 reasons:1- It could take few more months for the market to move toward the Dot Plot. The June hike is not a given, in our view, and to a large extent will depend on the data before the actual meeting, including in […]

US equity markets are expected to open slightly lower after the long bank holiday weekend, with traders looking to the income, spending and inflation data from the US to spark things back to life.<h4>US Inflation, Income and Spending Key Ahead of June Fed Meeting</h4>With markets still heavily pricing in a rate hike at the […]

Gold finally broke out of its consolidative trading range and retreated after refreshing fresh four week high level near $1270 region.The latest comments by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, foreseeing two more rate-hikes in 2017 provided some fresh boost to the US Dollar's modest up-move and was seen weighing on […]

EUR/USD: Neutral: Immediate downward pressure to 1.1025.We shifted from a bullish to neutral stance yesterday, 29 May and the move was timely as EUR dropped sharply after NY close to take out the strong 1.1130 support (low of 1.1125 at the time of writing). While we indicated that “the immediate bias is for a probe lower […]

Greece issue may have weighed over Treasury yields and AUD/JPY pair, but it hasn’t had any noticeable impact on the classic safe haven asset - Gold.The yellow metal trades comatose around $1269/Oz levels. On the contrary, AUD/JPY, which is widely considered as a risk barometer is down 0.50%, while the 10-year treasury yield […]

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch explains that as FX investors continue to warm towards the EUR, the mood towards USD remains ambivalent. Key Quotes “FOMC Minutes triggered a dovish response, though overall markets largely continued in their previous trends. USD is weaker despite unchanged pricing for the June Fed […]

In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair still points to some consolidation in the near term.Key Quotes “No change, the Euro is consolidating below the 1.1300 November high and we note the TD perfected set up. We would allow for some consolidation/retracement just below this level. […]

Credit Agricole CIB FX Strategy Research notes that next week will likely highlight that the relative fundamentals in the US and Eurozone continue to support policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB."In particular, we expect that US labour market data will confirm that the economy is at full employment and continues to […]

Gold prices are trading flat lined around $1268/Oz levels, the highest level since May 1 as the upward revision of the US Q1 GDP failed to boost the treasury yields. Consolidation ends with an upside breakout The metal was largely restricted to a range of $1245-$1263 levels since May 18 before the prices rose to a high of […]

A ‘Golden Cross’ i.e. a bullish crossover between 50-DMA and 200-DMA has yet again proved to be a laggard/contrary indicator. The bullish crossover, confirmed on the EUR/USD pair on May 23, has been followed by a pull back to 1.1165 (Asian session low). Eyes Draghi speech European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will […]

Holidays in UK and US will compress busy trading week The US dollar is regaining momentum after the Commerce department upgraded its first quarter GDP estimate from 0.7 percent to 1.2 percent. The U.S. Federal Reserve was already considering the slowdown a transitory one as per the minutes from its May meeting that were […]

Gold finally broke out of its weekly trading range and surged to three-week highs near $1267 level ahead of the US macro data.The precious metal's strong up-move since early European session could be attributed to reemergence of greenback selling interest. In fact, the key US Dollar Index reversed Thursday's upbeat weekly […]

The research team at Nomura explains that euro continued to grind higher this week and looking into investor positioning in the currency, they find mixed signals. Key Quotes “FX-focused asset managers and equity investors are very long euros, while FX-focused hedge funds and bond managers are very short euros. […]

EUR/USD: Bullish: Increasing risk of a short-term top. We have been holding the same view that the outlook for EUR is “still bullish but odds for extension to 1.1300 are not high” since Monday, 22 May. While the price action since then has been confined to a relatively narrow range, upward momentum is showing signs of […]

Bilal Hafeez, Research Analyst at Nomura, explains that their survey of positioning gives a mixed signal as FX-focused asset managers and equity investors are very long euros, while FX-focused hedge funds and bond managers are very short euros.Key Quotes “Price action suggests investors are not long euros An initial […]

Commodity currencies got off to a shaky start on Friday, having tracked oil prices lower, after a meeting of OPEC countries disappointed some investors who had hoped for larger production cuts. Sterling slipped after an opinion poll showed that Britain's opposition Labor Party has cut the lead of Prime Minister Theresa […]

The research team at Lloyds Bank remains of the view that neither the BOE nor the ECB will change their policy rates throughout the remainder of 2017. Key Quotes “With the subsidence of European political event risk, ECB policy is garnering greater attention from the market. There has been a notable shift in rhetoric from […]

A quiet Asian-affair, as dust settled over the FOMC minutes aftermath, while risk-on moods persisted amid higher stocks and oil prices. The greenback extended the overnight sell-off versus its main peers, as shorter-duration treasury yields remained sold-off into cautious FOMC minutes. As a result, most major currencies […]

EUR/USD: Bullish: Still bullish but odds for extension to 1.1300 are not high. There is not much to add as EUR traded in a relatively calm manner yesterday. The recovery from the 1.1167 low yesterday is lacking in momentum and the odds for extension to 1.1300 are still not high. That said, only a break below 1.1130 would […]

Analysts at ANZ note that according to the latest FOMC Minutes, most participants judged that if economic information came in about in line with their expectations, it would soon be appropriate for the Committee to take another step in removing some policy accommodation.Key Quotes “A number of participants pointed out that […]

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) deputy governor Iwata was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, making a statement on stimulus exit strategy. Key Points: Revenue from holding bonds could rise at exit Hard to say what rate on excess reserves would be at exit Will avoid causing sharp yield rise on exit Will conduct exit strategy […]

The research team at BBH suggests that the Bank of Canada will leave rates on hold as the economy has generally evolved as it has expected.Key Quotes “There is little reason to abandon its cautious posture.  The risks from trade are significant.  NAFTA negotiations begin in a few months.  Although the White House has balked […]

Oil futures rose slightly on Wednesday, building on a week’s of gains ahead of a looming decision on output cuts by major producers and prospects of falling U.S. supplies.The American Petroleum Institute, a private industry group, said late Tuesday in the U.S. that crude and gasoline stockpiles declined last week. Drops are […]

EUR/USD: Bullish: Still bullish but odds for extension to 1.1300 are not high. EUR eked out a marginal new high of 1.1267 yesterday before easing off quickly. The price action is not surprising as we have held the view that that “while the outlook for this pair is still bullish, the odds for extension to 1.1300 are not […]