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USD/JPY is consolidating after the recent 280-pip drop. USD/JPY bulls will need to overcome the 200-period simple moving average or else a small pullback towards 112.00 can be on the cards. The RSI and MACD

EUR/JPY continues to trade in an erratic fashion so far this week, finding support in the 129.00 neighbourhood and with gains capped around the 200-day SMA, today at 130.75. A surpass of the 200-day SMA should open the door for a potential visit to the 21-day SMA just above 131.00 the figure.

Cable is likely to prolong the current consolidative theme in the next weeks, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group.

Gold reversed an early dip to the $1220 area and is currently placed at the top end of its daily trading range, just above $1225 level. The US Dollar failed to build on/preserve early modest gains to the 95.00 neighborhood and was seen as one of the key factors underpinning the dollar-denominated commodity.

Cable continues to look to September’s peak near 1.3300 for the time being.

Gold traded with a mild positive bias on Tuesday and remained within striking distance of 2-1/2 month high, set in the previous session. A combination of positive factors helped the precious metal to build on last week's strong bullish momentum and lifted it to an intraday high level of $1233.30, the highest since July 26.

The buying interest is now picking up pace around the Sterling and is lifting GBP/USD back above the 1.3200 handle, or daily highs.Cable picked up extra pace on Tuesday after UK’s Average Earnings inc. Bonus rose at an annualized 2.7%, surpassing initial estimates. In addition, the jobless rate stayed put at 4.0% in August.

The USD/CAD pair struggled to build on overnight modest rebound from multi-day lows and remained capped below the key 1.30 psychological mark. The pair extended last week's rejection slide from 100-day SMA and was kept losing ground for the third consecutive session on Monday. A combination of factors exerted some heavy downward pressure and dragged the pair to an intraday low level of 1.2955.

The USD/JPY pair caught some fresh bids on Tuesday and recovered a major part of its overnight slide to near one-month lows. With investors looking past previous session's disappointing US monthly retail sales data, the US Dollar regained some positive traction and was seen as one of the key factors driving the pair higher.

We indicated last Friday “the rebound in AUD has scope to extend higher but strong resistance is expected at 0.7155

The AUD/USD pair regained positive traction at the start of a new trading week and has now moved within striking distance of over one-week tops set on Friday. The pair, for the second straight session, managed to find decent buying interest near the 0.7100 handle and was supported by a subdued US Dollar demand. Despite some renewed uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, the USD struggled to build on Friday's up-move/preserve early gains and was seen as one of the key factors driving the pair higher.

The pair has started the week on a positive note so far, leaving behind Friday’s pullback. Initial support emerges at the 10-day SMA in the 1.1530 region, coincident with recent lows. A breakdown of this zone should pave the way for another test of the key support at the 1.1500 neighbourhood.

The cross gapped lower at the start of a new trading week and now seems to have confirmed a bearish breakthrough a near four-week-old trading range.

The USD/JPY pair was now seen weakening farther below the 112.00 handle and dropped to near one-month low in the last hour. After a good two-way price action over the past two-way trading sessions, the pair came under some renewed selling pressure at the start of a new trading week amid a fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade.

The US dollar was higher against major pairs on Friday, but not enough to end up the week on positive territory. A stock market rout took its toll on the greenback and the subsequent rebound in stock prices supported the...

Following yesterday's impressive upsurge, the AUD/USD pair stayed relatively calm in a tight range above 0.71 for the majority of the day on Friday before gaining traction in the last hour. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.7135, adding 0.15% on the day.

No change. GBP/USD’s outlook is neutral to slightly positive. Very near term it is creeping higher. The market has recently recovered just ahead of Fibo support at 1.2905 and attention is now on 1.3298 the September high and 1.3363 the July high.

The USD/JPY pair failed to capitalize on its early positive momentum and quickly retreated around 25-pips from session tops. The pair stalled its overnight rebound from near one-month lows and once again met with some fresh supply near mid-112.00s, rather unaffected by a modest US Dollar rebound.

Less helpful though for the Aussie’s attempt to rally from 32 month lows near 0.7000 was the poor sentiment in Chinese equities. This was initially only a background concern for AUD but equity weakness was much harder to ignore on Wednesday when US markets posted their largest losses since February.

“EUR/USD continues to recover from just ahead of 1.1411, the 78.6% retracement.

The Sterling has coiled into a tight consolidation range through Friday's early Asian action as the pair winds into the end-week's European markets.

The Canadian dollar has edged lower in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3042, down 0.19% on the day. On the release front, Canada releases the New Housing Price Index, which is expected to post a gain of 0.1% for a third straight month. In the U.S., CPI and Core CPI are both expected to post gains of 0.2%. As well, unemployment claims are forecast to remain pegged at 207 thousand. On Friday, the U.S releases a key consumer confidence gauge, UoM Consumer Sentiment.

The pair is now extending the rebound from recent lows in the 1.1430 zone seen earlier in the week amidst a persistent selling mood hitting the buck. The greenback continues to suffer the sour sentiment in the US stocks markets, as futures keep pointing to a weak start later today while yields of the key US 10-year note manage to rebound from recent lows.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Near term corrective. Could test 1.1590 and above...

Less helpful though for AUD/USD’s attempt to rally from 32 month lows near 0.70 was the poor sentiment in Chinese equities. This was a background concern for AUD but equity weakness was much harder to ignore when US markets posted their largest losses since February

The Cable saw plenty of buying pressure in the early Asia session, and now the GBP/USD is heading into the upcoming London market session near 1.3225.

Crude-oil futures early Wednesday in New York traded on either side of break even, bouncing around as investors watched Hurricane Michael, which has intensified to Category 4 storm and was barreling down on Florida, and weighed the impact of pending U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude exports...

AUD/USD Fails ahead of 200-hour SMA, back below 0.71 mark amid renewed USD buying...

We examine the same criteria as the US Treasury and find that while various countries in Asia breached two of their thresholds, none is likely to be labelled as a currency manipulator...

Emerging economies are at risk of capital flight at levels unseen since the financial crisis and markets are "complacent” about financial conditions, according to the global lender of last resort. Developing markets, including ...

The British pound edged 0.4 percent lower at $1.3041 nearing a one-month low hit last week. Against the euro, the British currency was 0.2 percent weaker at 87.86 pence. The pound can definitely move higher from current levels but the markets are waiting for news on...

EUR/USD continues to post losses this week. In the Tuesday session, the pair is trading at 1.1449, down -0.37% on the day. There are no key eurozone or U.S. events on the schedule. Germany’s trade surplus has climbed to ...

The GBP/USD pair struggled to build on its early positive momentum to 100-day SMA hurdle and has now drifted into negative territory for the second straight session. After an initial uptick to levels just above the 1.3100 handle, the pair met with some ...

Gold prices may already have hit bottom for the year after declining for the past six months in a row—the longest streak of losses in nearly three decades. Lower prices have contributed to a boost in global central-bank purchases of gold. Other signs of...

EUR long positions had already dropped heavily in the middle of September. Although they subsequently won back some ground, they fell back into negative ground again last week. GBP shorts have been choppy in recent weeks...

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that the US growth surprise allowed rate hikes but higher interest rates are no longer necessary. He further added that the...

The EUR/JPY pair closed at 130.96 on Friday, confirming a downside break of the trendline connecting the Aug. 15 low and Sept. 10 low.The daily chart also shows a bearish crossover between the 5 and 10 exponential moving average (EMA). So, it seems safe to say that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

he US dollar was mixed Friday. The greenback advanced against the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD AND NZD) edging higher against the CHF, but was lower agains the JPY and the EUR. The GBP deserves a special...

The EUR/JPY pair has found acceptance below the 50-hour, 100-hour, and 200-hour exponential moving averages (EMAs), having established lower highs and lower lows pattern on the hourly chart in the last seven days.

The EUR/USD pair broke down of its Asian/early European session consolidative trading range and dropped to fresh session lows, below mid-1.1700s in the last hour. A goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand was seen as one of the key factors exerting some fresh downward pressure over the past hour or so, with the pair erasing of the previous session's modest gains to the 1.1800 neighbourhood.

EUR/GBP main bull trend remains intact as the market is trading above its 100 and 200-day simple moving averages. EUR/GBP is finding some support at 0.8940 (August 14 high) as the market is consolidating the gains made last week. While the RSI is bullish, the MACD and Stochastics indicators are losing some momentum. However, bulls can come back at any time and put an end to the pullback by lifting the market to 0.9000 figure and 0.9032 (August 9 high)

The pair has been steadily climbing alongside a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on the 1-hourly chart since the early North-American session on Friday. The positive momentum stalled near the trend-channel resistance, also coinciding with 200-hour SMA amid a fresh wave of broad-based USD selling pressure. Considering the pair's recent decline, the ascending channel seems to constitute towards a bearish flag chart pattern formation on the mentioned chart.

Analysts at RBS note that the foreign appetite for US financial assets shows few signs of waning. Key Quotes “Net foreign demand for long-term US securities rebounded to $74.8bn in July after net sales of $36bn in June, driven by significant overseas buying of US securities and sizeable US sales of foreign financial assets.”

The cross is extending the recent breakout of the critical 200-day SMA at 131.10, trading well above the 132.00 handle although below Friday’s tops just beyond 133.00 the figure. The recent up move has retaken the 133.00 handle and above at the end of last week, although sellers showed up afterwards. Still on the upside, the next target is now April’s top at 133.53. If momentum picks up further pace, YTD top at 137.53 (February 2) should be back on the radar. The constructive view remains in place as long as the short-term support line, today at 129.58, underpins.

According to Axel Rudolph, Senior Analyst at Commerzbank, the pair’s stance remains offered while below 0.9789. Key Quotes “USD/CHF’s is back under pressure and nears the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at .9524. Below it lie the February high at .9470 and the mid- and late March lows at .9434/25. Further down the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement can be spotted at .9376. Rallies should find initial resistance offered by the 200 day ma at .9735 and remain contained by the .9789 June low”.

24-hour view: “While we highlighted yesterday “the consolidation phase appears to be close to completion”, our expectation for a likely downside break was wrong. EUR staged an abrupt and sharp rally that blast past the major 1.1725/35 resistance zone and came close to the next major resistance at 1.1790 (overnight high of 1.1785). The strong surge seems to be running ahead of itself but there is ample room for a move above 1.1790. That said, the June’s peak near 1.1851 is likely out of reach for today (minor resistance at 1.1825). On the downside, 1.1720 is expected to be strong enough to hold any intraday pullback (minor support is at 1.1750)”.

The AUD/USD pair broke its upside consolidation phase in early Europe and peeped briefly above the 0.73 handle before meeting fresh supply to now revert towards the 0.7285 region.

The GBP/USD is trapped in a tight range heading into Friday's London market session after seeing firm gains through Thursday's trading action, busting through the 1.3200 technical level as broader markets recover from recent trade war angst.

EUR/USD appears reluctant to tackle resistance offered by the 1.1745/50 area and the 1.1790 recent high. This has rejected the market many times and remains formidable resistance.

EUR/JPY keeps trading on a positive note on Wednesday, extending the rally beyond 131.00 the figure and at the same time re-taking the key 200-day SMA. The continuation of the bull run should allow for a test of July’s top just beyond the 132.00 milestone ahead of April’s high in the mid-133.00s. In addition, the cross remains constructive as long as the short-term support line, today at 129.03, holds. ‍

Analysts at TD Securities suggests that as the third $200bn batch of Section 301 tariffs on China has been announced by the Trump Administration, but they expect US inflationary impacts to be modest, along with negative growth impacts. Key Quotes “The finalized tariff list still targets a minority share of consumer goods and an even smaller share of the CPI basket. Import market share of the targeted goods is relatively small, and pass-through from capital and intermediate goods prices, which will bear the brunt of the tariff impact, is also low for the relevant categories.”

Advanced figures for GBP futures markets showed investors added just 770 contracts on Monday vs. Friday’s final 314,579 contracts, according to CME Group. On the other hand, volume dropped by almost 66.6K contracts. GBP/USD could test the 100-day SMA at 1.3170

The pair should keep the constructive outlook while above the 110.76, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.Key Quotes “USD/JPY is probing the 112.00/15 resistance and for now, while underpinned by the uptrend today at 110.76, our bias is positive. The market has recently tested and recovered from support offered by the 55 week moving average at 110.38 and the 200 day moving average at 109.76.

The Sterling is looking for higher gains as Brexit hopes push traders into the bullish camp. With trade wars beginning to ramp-up, buying pressure is going to face severe headwinds. The economic calendar remains thin until Wednesday's inflation reading for the UK, leaving buyers to look up towards the 200-day EMA slung high above current prices. ‍

EUR/JPY is extending the bounce off Friday’s lows and is now resuming the upside with immediate target the 200-day SMA, today at 131.11. A surpass of the key 200-day SMA should pave the way for a continuation of the bull run to July’s tops in levels just above 132.00 the figure. On the downside, the 129.00/50 band should offer decent contention. This area is coincident with late July lows and the 21-day/55-day/10-day SMA. ‍

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that in Sweden, the highlight of the day will be the minutes from the 6 September Riksbank meeting, which will be scrutinised for clues about the next policy step. Key Quotes “We will look for an indication of a first policy hike in either December or February.”

The Sterling-Dollar pairing is looking for more bullish momentum despite the US Dollar's broad-market bull moves recently.

The dollar bounced back on Friday, after a couple of economic indicator misses this week, the greenback is higher against all major pairs. Major pairs and commodities are lower against the greenback ahead of the weekend. The American currency did not....

The cross is prolonging the march higher today, adding to Thursday’s strong advance to the boundaries of 131.00 the figure on the back of the persistent improved tone in the risk-associated complex. EUR/JPY is already flirting with the 200-day SMA near 131.15 and opens the door for the continuation of the up move to. Initially, July’s tops just beyond the 132.00 milestone.

According to CME Group’s advanced figures for EUR futures markets, investors added around 16.8K contracts to their open interest position on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s final 549,540 contracts. In the same line, volume rose to its second largest level so far this year above 751K contracts, up by more than 231K from the previous day and recording the third build in a row.

The GBP/USD pair finally broke out of its Asian session consolidation phase and refreshed six-week tops in the last hour.The pair built on its bullish trajectory further beyond the 1.3100 handle, with a combination of supporting factors confirming that the near-term positive momentum remains well intact.The US Dollar continues to be weighed down by Thursday’s weaker than expected US consumer inflation figures, which coupled with Brexit optimism helped the pair to continue gaining positive traction for the fifth consecutive session.

24-hour view: “The sudden acceleration higher in USD that hit an overnight high of 111.99 was clearly not expected. Upward momentum has improved by considerably and from here, a move above the August’s peak of 112.14 would not surprise at all. However, the next resistance at 112.60 could be just out of reach for today. On the downside, we expect 111.35 to be strong enough to hold any intraday pull-back (minor support is at 111.60)”.

The shared currency remained apathetic after the ECB decision today, with EUR/USD a tad lower in the 1.1715/10 band. EUR/USD now focused on Draghi’s presser The pair remains in the upper end of the weekly range after the ECB’s Governing Council left its monetary conditions unchanged at today’s meeting, falling in line with market expectations.

Cable remains neutral although there is still scope for a test of 1.3170, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “GBP traded between 1.2980 and 1.3083 yesterday, higher than our expected 1.2960/1.3065 consolidation range. While upward momentum is not strong, there is room for GBP to edge above the overnight high of 1.3083 even though a break of the next resistance at 1.3105 would come as a surprise. Support is at 1.3020 but only a break of 1.2990 would indicate that a short-term top is in place”.

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that the key event today is the ECB meeting, in addition to the BoE meeting. Key Quotes “Albeit we do not expect big communication changes, the ECB will present new staff projections. We expect a marginal downward revision of the 2019 and 2020 projections, but no new policy signals as the central bank has been content with the current economic path and the market reaction to the recent increased forward guidance in June.”

“USD/CAD managed to heave itself from its August low at 1.2888 to its early September high at 1.3225 before coming off again”.

The EUR/USD pair extends its choppy trend into the European session, unable to sustain the bounce once again above the 1.16 handle, as the bulls remain unnerved ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting due tomorrow.Persistent demand for the US dollar amid looming US-China trade concerns and uncertainty over the trade talks between the US and Canada continues to keep the EUR/USD pair under pressure so far this Wednesday, with every upside attempt sold-off just ahead of the 1.1600 level.

The likeliness of further downside in the short-term horizon remains well on the cards, suggested FX Strategists at UOB 24-hour view: “We indicated yesterday that the strong up-move in EUR “has room to move above the overnight high of 1.1615 but a break of last week’s top of 1.1659 is not expected” and added, “1.1640 is already a strong level”. EUR subsequently rose to a high of 1.1643 before easing off quickly. Upward pressure has eased and we view the current movement as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, we expect EUR to trade sideways for today, likely within a 1.1560/1.1630 range”.

The USD/JPY pair was seen consolidating overnight strong gains to near one-week tops and traded with a mild negative bias through the Asian session on Wednesday. The pair found some fresh buying ahead of the 111.00 handle on Tuesday and was supported by a combination of positive factors. Renewed US Dollar demand, coupled with surging US Treasury bond yields and positive mood around the US equity markets pushed the pair beyond mid-111.00s.

he euro is rising for the second day in a row against the yen but retreated significantly from the top, signaling difficulties to the upside. The move higher lost strength slightly below 130.00 and a consolidation on top would clear the way to more gains. Before that level, it needs to break and hold above 129.75.

USD/JPY main bull trend is taking a breather since mid-July as the market has entered a trading range. USD/JPY bulls are trying to break above the bear trendline from July 17 but they will also have to break above the 112.00-112.17 zone (figure and August 1, swing high) if they wish to resume the bull trend. The RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators remain constructive to the upside. However, the 50, 100 and 200-period simple moving averages are flat suggesting that there is not yet convincing momentum in the market.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as U.S. sanctions squeezed Iranian crude exports, tightening global supply despite efforts by Washington to get other producers to increase output.

The yen slipped on Tuesday on news a Japanese chipmaker was buying a U.S. peer for $6.7 billion, while sterling held onto overnight gains after the European Union’s top negotiator raised hopes a Brexit deal can be struck in the coming weeks.

Forex today witnessed a recovery in risk appetite, despite looming US-China trade concerns, as the renewed optimism on the Brexit deal and NAFTA lifted market sentiment. As a result, the safe-haven Yen was broadly sold-off, driving the USD/JPY pair closer...

USD/CHF bulls have been lifting the market for two consecutive days as they are creating a pullback in the main bear trend. USD/CHF rose to the 200-day simple moving average where it is finding resistance. In the near term more sideways to down price action is expected as the market is in a range between 0.9768 (September 4 high) and 0.9640 (2018 low).

Sterling edged higher on Monday after posting its biggest weekly drop in a month last week against a broadly stable dollar as investors cut some large short positions, but Brexit concerns checked the gains.

The dollar traded higher against a basket of currencies on Monday amid fears of a potentially major escalation in the China-U.S. trade conflict, while Sweden’s crown rose following the previous day’s election.

Our recent expectation for EUR to extend its rebound was proven wrong as it plummeted last Friday and hit a low of 1.1548. While the low was just above the 1.1530 ‘key support’, the weak daily closing in NY is enough to indicate that the recent mild upward pressure has eased.

Market events to watch this week

The US dollar rose on Friday against all major pairs after a strong U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report was published. The US added 201,000 jobs, but more importantly hourly wages beat expectations in August coming in at 0.4 percent. The market has priced in a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve when Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members meet on September 25–26. Next up in the economic calendar are the releases of US inflation and retail sales data.

The pair built on its steady recovery move from over two-week lows and has now climbed to fresh session tops, further beyond the 111.00 handle on the back of upbeat US monthly jobs report.

The dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies on Thursday, as investors positioned themselves ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated jobs report for August.

We have held the same view since Monday (03 Sep, spot at 1.1595) wherein “EUR could drift lower but any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.1520/1.1675 consolidation range and not the start of a sustained decline”.

EUR/USD climbs to a fresh weekly-high (1.1659) even as data prints coming out of the euro-area instill a weakened outlook for the monetary union, and recent price action warns of a larger advance as the exchange rate initiates a fresh series of higher highs & lows.

Sterling will make solid gains on the dollar in the coming year, a Reuters poll found, but that climb is based on the assumption that Britain leaves the European Union next year with a deal.

We have held the same view since Monday (03 Sep, spot at 1.1595) wherein “EUR could drift lower but any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.1520/1.1675 consolidation range and not the start of a sustained decline”.

An overnight bounce in the pound after a report that the European Union could offer new guarantees to Britain to win London’s support for a solution aimed at avoiding a hard Irish border after Brexit faded on Wednesday as investors focused on the spreading selloff in emerging markets.

The British pound was set on Monday for its biggest daily drop against the euro in more than three months as concerns grew about the progress of Brexit negotiations.

EUR rebounded slightly after touching a low of 1.1582 yesterday. We continue to view last week’s 1.1733 peak as a short-term top and expect this level to remain intact for the next one week or so.

The greenback, gauges by the US Dollar Index, remains on the defensive at the beginning of the week although it manages well to keep business above 95.00 the figure for the time being.

The recent upward pressure has eased as EUR staged a surprisingly sharp decline last Friday and took out the 1.1590 ‘key support’. We indicated on Friday (31 Aug, spot at 1.1670) that a break of 1.1590 would suggest that a short-term top is in place. In other words, we do not...

Sterling fell on Monday as the latest Brexit headlines sapped investor sentiment, after the British currency gained to its highest in nearly a month last week.

Market events to watch this week

The US dollar is mixed in the last week of August. Risk aversion has risen after the US-Canada deal is close, but not agreed and new US tariffs on Chinese goods could start next week lifting the greenback abasing emerging markets and the EUR and CAD with only the GBP still flying after potentially beneficial Brexit news and the safe havens CHF and JPY.

Sterling held near a one-month high on Friday as hopes of a breakthrough on Brexit this week prompted some traders to cut back on aggressive short bets on the British currency.

The dollar edged up against its peers on Friday, finding support as the latest episode of U.S.-China trade tensions dulled investor risk appetite, with weakness in emerging market currencies also helping lift the greenback.

After touching a high of 1.1733 on Tuesday (28 Aug), EUR has not been able to make much headway on the upside. While upward pressure is starting to wane, there is still scope for EUR to make another run to test the major 1.1745 resistance.

GBP/USD has recorded slight losses in the Thursday session, after sharp gains on Wednesday. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 1.2996, down 0.25% on the day.

The EUR/USD pair faded an early European session bullish spike and quickly retreated around 40-45 pips from an intraday high level of 1.1718.