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The US dollar appreciated versus most major pairs on Friday. The Japanese yen outperformed the greenback as a safe haven, but all other major currencies suffered heavy losses during the week.

Analysts at Rabobank point out that this morning saw the publication of Japan’s first preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP and the growth surged by 0.5% q/q, and as a result returned into positive territory for this year after the small 0.1% decline in the first quarter.

Sterling steadied near 11-month lows on Thursday after a decline this week that was fueled by investor fears Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement on its future relationship with the bloc.

While traders believe the risk of a similar sudden devaluation in the yuan is unlikely for now, both Washington and Beijing appear to be digging in for a protracted trade battle that will keep pressure on the currency and the Chinese economy.

The near-term range-bound price action constituted towards the formation of a rectangular chart pattern on the 1-hourly chart, suggesting a brief pause in the trend. The pattern, however, is not complete until a decisive breakout in either direction has occurred and hence, it would be prudent to wait before positioning for a firm near-term direction.

GBP extended its decline and hit a fresh multi-month low of 1.2819 yesterday (09 Aug). While severely oversold, there is no sign that the current weakness is about to stabilize just yet and from here, further decline towards the next major support at 1.2775 would not be surprising. For today, we do not expect a sustained break below this level (next support is at 1.2735).

The New Zealand Dollar came under some intense selling pressure on Thursday in reaction to RBNZ's more accommodative policy stance, now forecasts the first hike in the third quarter of 2020 - a full year later than previously projected.

Investors trimmed bearish bets on most emerging Asian currencies over the last two weeks, as renewed trade war concerns were cushioned by regional central bank efforts to shore up their currencies, a Reuters poll showed.

EUR/JPY still targets the June 8 low at 128.11 which will be in focus once the July 4 and current August lows at 128.51/49 have given way. Below the 128.11 level the late June low can be spotted at 127.15.

The precious metal has struggled to register any meaningful recovery and remains within striking distance of YTD lows, set last Friday. A combination of diverging forces failed to provide any meaningful impetus and led to the recent subdued trading action within a broader trading range, held over the past one week or so.

According to CME Group’s preliminary figures for EUR futures markets, traders scaled back their open interest positions by 618 contracts on Wednesday from Tuesday’s final 507,186 contracts. Volume followed suit, increasing by almost 5.9K contracts.

The pair's recent rise over the past one week or so once again stalled near a short-term descending trend-line hurdle, also coinciding with 55-day SMA. The pair remains within an eight-week-old broader trading range and diverging technical indicators on the daily/4-hourly chart also fail to support any firm directional bias.

Sterling extended losses on Thursday, falling 0.3 percent against the dollar to approach a one-year low as markets grow nervous Britain will leave the European Union without an agreement on its future relationship with the bloc.

After an Asian session uptick to an intraday high level of 1.2960, the pair came under some intense selling pressure and resumed with its well-established bearish trend. Against the backdrop of Brexit uncertainties, a goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand was seen as one of the key factors exerting some additional downward pressure on the major.

Major state-owned Chinese banks were seen selling dollars on Friday afternoon in an apparent attempt to put a floor under a tumbling yuan, as the worsening trade dispute between the United States and China drove the currency to a fresh 14-month low.

The commodity struggled to build on Friday's goodish rebound from 17-month lows and was being capped by a combination of negative factors. The July US monthly jobs report reinforced market expectations that the Fed will stick to its gradual monetary policy tightening cycle and kept a lid on any meaningful up-move for the non-yielding yellow metal.

CME Group’s flash figures for GBP futures markets noted open interest rose by more than 7K contracts on Tuesday from Monday’s final 212,691 contracts. In the same direction, volume rose by almost 6.4K contracts.

The euro rose above $1.16 on Wednesday as the dollar’s recent rally ran out of steam, and traders said solid data out of China had calmed investor nerves about recent Sino-U.S. trade tensions, hurting demand for the dollar.

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 05 Jun 18, 1.1700): A retest of 1.1500/10 support zone seems likely. No change in view. A break of 1.1640 would indicate that the recent downward pressure has eased.There is not much to add as EUR hit a low of 1.1527 yesterday before staging a mild recovery.

The pound stayed fragile on Tuesday after falling to an 11-month low against the dollar overnight on worries over a ‘hard’ Brexit from the European Union, while simmering U.S.-China trade tensions provided support to the greenback.

There is not much to add as EUR hit a low of 1.1527 yesterday before staging a mild recovery. As highlighted last Friday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1585), while we maintain a neutral stance, the risk has shifted to the downside and the major 1.1500/10 support zone is likely to be retested (note that EUR touched 1.1506 in May and 1.1507 in June). While the prospect for

USD/JPY is in its fourth day of consolidation after the currency pair broke to the upside on July 31. USD/JPY is struggling to find a clear direction, however, bulls have a slight advantage as they have the long-term trend on their side. Bulls objective is to reconquer the 111.82-112.00 area to target 113.18, the 2018 high. Bears want a bear breakout below the 111.02-111.16 area in order to initially retake the swing low at 110.58.

U.S. government bond yields for longer-dated debt fell on Monday as investors wrestled with the threat of intensifying trade clashes between the U.S. and China and the ripple effects those fresh animosities could have on global markets.

The US Dollar remained supported by Friday's monthly jobs report, which reinforced expectations that the Fed will stick to its gradual monetary policy tightening cycle, and was seen as one of the key factors prompting some fresh selling at the start of a new trading week.

German factory orders reported the steepest monthly drop in nearly a year and a half, arriving at -4.0% in June versus -0.5% expected. Meanwhile, the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence gauge came in at 14.7 in August versus 13.4 expected.

As highlighted last Friday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1585), while we maintain a neutral stance, the risk has shifted to the downside and the major 1.1500/10 support zone is likely to be retested (note that EUR touched 1.1506 in May and 1.1507 in June).

Market events to watch this week

The US dollar fell on Friday after the U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) came in below expectations with only a gain of 157,000 but otherwise the unemployment rate dropped to 3.9 percent and wage growth remained unchanged at 0.3 percent.

After a bull run to the 1.1610 area, or daily highs, sellers quickly stepped in and dragged spot back to sub-1.1600 levels, although some decent contention seems to have emerged around 1.1560 for the time being.

The cross is falling further south of the key support level at 129.00 the figure, where coincide recent lows (July 27) and the top of the daily cloud. EUR/JPY is adding to recent weakness sparked after breaking below the former key support line around 130.00 the figure .

PBoC news-led modest USD retracement triggers the initial leg of recovery move from the $1200 neighborhood, or 13-month lows, amid near-term oversold conditions. Disappointing headline NFP print, coupled with trade-related headlines provided an additional boost and lifted the commodity through an important confluence hurdle.

The index quickly gave away the initial advance to the 95.40 and returned to the 95.00 area following headlines from the PBoC, which decided to adjust the reserve requirement on FX forward trading to 20%, as per news released by Bloomberg.

Sterling fell below $1.30 to an 11-day low on Friday after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said there was an “uncomfortably high” risk of Britain leaving the European Union without a deal.

The relatively large decline over the past couple of days came as a surprise. While we continue to maintain a neutral stance, the risk has shifted to the downside and the major 1.1500/10 support zone is likely to be retested (note that EUR touched 1.1506 in May and 1.1507 in June).

The Fed's upbeat outlook for the domestic economy, reaffirming expectations for at least two more rate hikes by the end of this year, capped the early attempted recovery move for the non-yielding yellow metal. Adding to this, a fresh wave of US Dollar upsurge prompted some fresh selling around the dollar-denominated commodity since the early European session.

The U.K. central bank upped its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% in an unexpectedly unanimous vote. While market participants had foreseen the rate increase, they assumed some dissent among the members of the Monetary Policy Committee.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the buck vs. a basket of its main competitors, is extending the upside to the vicinity of the critical 95.00 milestone on Thursday.

The euro struggled on Wednesday as fears of an escalation in the trade dispute between the United States and China boosted the dollar and a survey showing subdued euro zone manufacturing growth in July kept investors cautious.

At 54.0, the latest UK manufacturing PMI is the lowest in three months and is a far cry from the levels seen towards the end of 2017, explains James Smith, Developed Markets Economist at ING.

here is not much to add as EUR touched a high of 1.1745 yesterday before easing off. As highlighted yesterday, the recent mild downward pressure has eased and EUR is expected to trade sideways for now, likely within a broad 1.1620/1.1790 range. From a longer-term perspective, EUR...

The index advances to the mid-94.00s or fresh daily tops.DXY finds support in session lows in the 94.20/15 band. Consumer Confidence surprised to the upside in July. DXY meet extra buying pressure after US Consumer Confidence measured by the Conference Board came in above expectations at 127.4 (vs. 126.5 exp. and 127.1 prev.) for the current month.

EUR touched a high of 1.1719 yesterday, just one pip below the ‘key resistance’ at 1.1720. While the ‘key resistance’ is still intact, the relatively strong daily closing in NY (closed at 1.1704, +0.41%) is enough to indicate that the recent mild downward pressure has eased.

Major currencies stuck to familiar ranges on Monday as investors shied away from taking out big positions ahead of a flurry of crucial economic data and central bank monetary policy meetings this week.

The pound rose on Monday but its modest gains reflected concern among investors about the currency’s prospects ahead of a widely anticipated Bank of England interest rake hike this week.

The sharp decline of -0.74% yesterday (largest 1-day drop in a month) was not expected. Our previous expectation for EUR to trade at a higher 1.1640/1.1850 consolidation range is not valid anymore. While downward pressure has increased, it is too early to expect the start of a bearish phase.

The US dollar is mixed on Friday against major pairs. The US economy grew at a 4.1 percent pace on the second quarter according to the first estimate. The number came in right on the forecast which had no positive effect for the USD, but it did validate the U.S. Federal Reserve decision to keep a tighter monetary policy with two more rate hikes in the horizon this year.

Despite Thursday's disappointing US macro data, the USD staged a solid rebound on the back of a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields and prompted some aggressive selling around the major.

Theresa May should accept a no-deal Brexit over requesting more time to negotiate a deal. Suggests voters are growing impatient with how long it has taken to agree Brexit. May would suffer a major Conservative rebellion if she sought to extend talks.

The dollar rose on Friday to its highest level in five days as investors waited to see if U.S. economic growth figures do anything to interrupt its months of strength. U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed displeasure over the dollar’s strength, ignoring a custom that U.S. leaders avoid openly interfering in financial markets.

The sharp decline of -0.74% yesterday (largest 1-day drop in a month) was not expected. Our previous expectation for EUR to trade at a higher 1.1640/1.1850 consolidation range is not valid anymore.

The USD/CAD pair broke above its daily range in the early trading hours of the American session on the back of a stronger greenback. At the moment, the pair was trading at 1.3080, adding 35 pips, or 0.26%, on the day.

Critical will be the responses of both EU and regional Tory delegates to the selling of the latest Brexit (exit) proposals and May’s visions of UK relationships with EU post-Brexit. If the responses are positive, May’s leadership will strengthen as will the potential for productive negotiations.

Gold for August delivery on Comex GCQ8, -0.15% fell $3.70, or 0.3%, at $1,227.90 an ounce. Prices had settled at $1,224 as recently as Thursday, the lowest for a most-active contract in about a year. September silver SIU8, +0.10%fell 3 cents, or 0.2%, to $15.560 an ounce.

U.S. government bond rates early Thursday advanced as fixed-income investors awaited the latest policy update from the European Central Bank, which could affect Treasurys. Bond investors also awaited a string of economic reports, including on the labor market and international trade.

After an initial uptick to $1235 area, gold met with some fresh supply and has now eroded a part of gains recorded in the previous session.

The pound struggled to gain ground against the dollar and the euro on Thursday due to mounting uncertainty over Brexit even as investors strengthened bets on a Bank of England interest rate hike next week.

The euro edged higher on Wednesday ahead of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker but gains were limited with investors cautious about a trade rift between the two powers.

The US Dollar Index, which stayed relatively quiet and closed flat on Tuesday, hung out near mid-94s for the majority of the day and came under a modest selling pressure ahead of the low-tier macroeconomic data releases from the United States.

Analysts at TD Securities note that the German IFO Business Climate index ticked lower to 101.7 in July, splitting the difference between this month's softer ZEW and better-than-expected PMIs.

The retreat from weekly tops can be mainly attributed to a bout of risk-aversion that gripped the European markets, with markets turning cautious heading into the crucial trade talks arranged between the US President Trump and European Commission President Juncker later on Wednesday.

AUD/USD recently sold off to, tested and bounced off the .7310/15 recent lows. The strong rebound from here implies a reluctance to break down further currently and we are going to have to neutralise our view for now

The euro edged higher on Wednesday ahead of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker but gains were limited with investors cautious about a trade rift between the two powers.

After dropping to a 2-day low at $1218, the XAU/USD pair took advantage of the broad-based USD weakness and gained traction to turn positive on the day. However, an improved market sentiment in the early NA session capped the pair's upside and it was last seen trading at $1229, where it was up $4.5, or 0.4%, on the day.

British Prime Minister Theresa May recently crossed the wires saying that she would take control of Brexit negotiations and relegate the government's Brexit department, as reported by Bloomberg.

The euro headed towards a two-week high on Tuesday after surveys showed eurozone business growth remained robust, although fears of a trade war with the United States kept the single currency trapped in narrow ranges.

While the expectation was not wrong, the subsequent sharp and rapid rebound from a low of 110.74 came as a surprise. At this stage, the bounce is viewed as part of a correction even though there is scope for a test of the strong 111.80 resistance.

The latest leg of a sharp spike over the past hour or so lacked any obvious catalyst and could be solely attributed to a modest US Dollar retracement. The greenback struggled to build on overnight up-move and was seen as one of the key factors driving the pair higher.

Sterling fell to a three-week low against a resurgent yen on Monday after the Japanese currency received a boost from reports that the central bank was contemplating scaling back its stimulus.

After making a decisive recovery on Friday and closing the week near $1230, the XAU/USD pair struggled to extend its gains amid a relatively subdues trading action. With the greenback gathering some strength in the early NA session, the pair started erasing Friday's upside and was last seen at $1225, losing around $7, or 0.6% on the day.

Although it looked like it was able to find support near the 0.74 handle earlier in the day, the AUD/USD pair came under a renewed selling pressure in the last hour to drop to a fresh daily low at 0.7382. As of writing, the pair was trading a couple of pips above that level, losing 0.5% on the day.

President Trump made waves on Friday, after attacking the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and also taking shots at the EU. Trump criticized the EU and China for manipulating their currencies and keeping interest rates lower.

Also pushing the yen up were comments by U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday criticizing the greenback’s strength, which in turn hit the Japanese stock markets and triggered a further unwinding of short yen positions.

China’s yuan rebounded from more than one-year lows against the dollar on Friday afternoon, driven up on suspected dollar sales by major state banks to prop up a currency that has been hit by a bitter Sino-U.S. trade conflict.

Market events to watch this week

The USD fell against major pairs on Friday after US President Donald Trump tweeted that China and the EU manipulate their currency. Trade war escalation has reached a second phase at a time when American politics are having an identity crisis with the ongoing Russian interference during the 2016 elections.

CME Group’s advanced data for GBP futures markets noted open interest rose by almost 5K contracts on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s final 196,891 contracts. In the same direction, volume increased by around 10.3K contracts.

This month’s year-over-year CPI increase follows a year of gradual acceleration in consumer price inflation, from a recent low of 1.0% year over year in June 2017. This trend reflects increases in prices for gasoline and food purchased from restaurants, as well as offsetting factors such as lower price inflation for electricity and telephone services.

Analysts at Nomura suggest that the next BOJ meeting on 30-31 July represents interesting event risk for Japan trading and fundamentally, they believe the meeting will be negative for JPY in the medium term.

The Times carried a story on Friday, citing that the Britons will from next week start receiving weekly information bulletins from the UK government about how to ensure they’re ready for a disorderly Brexit, Reuters reports.

As a result, at time of writing CNH had tested past 6.8350 and was trading at 6.8183. That is through the line in the sand I had thought the PBOC would set before they seemed to set 6.70. Now perhaps we don’t have any lines or any sand at all.

The bullish tone in the cross is poised to remain unchanged while above the daily cloud and June’s tops in the 130.40 region. This area appears reinforced by the short-term support line and the top of the cloud in the 128.80 region.

The Canadian dollar has posted considerable losses in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3266, up 0.73% on the day. On the release front, Canadian ADP Nonfarm Employment Change plunged, posting a reading of -10.5 thousand. This was the first decline of 2018. In the U.S, manufacturing and employment data were better than expected.

The slump for gold has mounted as the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA, +0.32% and the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.22% have mostly been in a recent uptrend in recent weeks, with the Dow marking its fifth straight winning sessionon Wednesday before a sluggish turn early Thursday. Gold tends to fall as stocks climb because it is viewed as an asset that appeals to investors in times of uncertainty and fear.

The pair once again failed to make it through the 0.7440 supply zone and the initial leg of retracement slide was triggered by resurgent US Dollar demand, which continued benefitting from upbeat economy outlooks from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the central bank’s Beige Book report.

Focus is on the retail sales report for June and what it could mean for the path of interest rates. Economists expect sales to have gone up 0.3% month-on-month, pulling back from growth of 1.3% in May.

The dollar rose on Tuesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided an upbeat assessment on the U.S. economy while downplaying the impact of current global trade policy discussions on the outlook for further monetary tightening.

Reuters reports comments from the Chinese Foreign Ministry on the US-China trade war, with the key headlines found below. The trade war has become the biggest 'confidence killer' for the global economy. The US is fabricating all kinds of excuses on trade, including the excuse of national security.

Sterling fell in early European trading on Wednesday as worries about British Prime Minister Theresa May’s ability to push through her Brexit plans and a rallying dollar further hit the pound.

Sterling, meanwhile, firmed but held near eight-month lows on Tuesday as it suffered amid a growing rift within Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party over Brexit. With less than nine months to go until the U.K. leaves the European Union, the pressure is on to chart the course for trade, financial transactions and more, and is posing a fresh headwind for the pound.

Analysts at RBS point out that UK GDP grew by 0.3% between April and May, strong enough to lift the three-monthly growth rate from nothing to 0.2% and as a result of that even after very moderate growth in June, which seems likely, and the UK will match its post-2000 average of 0.4% in Q2.

The pair’s buying bias stays well and sound so far today, although spot met a strong resistance area in the mid-1.1700s. The 55-day sma, the base of the daily cloud and a retracement of the April-May descent reinforce this hurdle.

The sentiment picture is even less encouraging today. With gold down another $15 since that late-June column, we’d otherwise expect the average recommended gold exposure level to be even lower than minus 13%. That’s because the normal pattern is for market timers to become more- and less bullish along with the market’s rallies and declines. That the average market timer did not behave in this way suggests there is a strong undercurrent of stubbornly held bullishness in the gold market.

The dollar edged down on Tuesday ahead of congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell which traders will scrutinise for clues on the pace of U.S. interest rate rises and risks emanating from trade conflicts.

Canada’s regional housing surveys were mixed, but analysts at TD Securities are looking for the national housing sales figures (originally scheduled for release on Friday) to be little changed between May and June.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Cable quietly gaining ground currently supported at 1.3250 level GBP/USD is currently in a 40-pip pullback from the daily high established at 1.3293. GBP/USD is attempting to find support near 1.3250 close to the bullish trendline and the 50-period simple moving average. Bulls targets are the 1.3300 figure and 1.3363, last week’s high. If 1.3250 fails to hold prices the pullback might extend towards 1.3225 intraday swing low and 1.3200 figure.

Should the two primary market gauges stay in correction through the close of trading on Monday, that will mean they are in their longest such stretch since 1984. In that stretch, it took the S&P 122 days to emerge from correction territory, and the Dow 123 days, according to the WSJ Market Data Group.

European stocks had a sluggish start as trading got underway, as mining stocks were dragged down after data showed China’s gross domestic product slowed slightly in the second quarter. The Stoxx Europe 600 Basic Resources IndexSXPP, -0.58% fell 0.5%.

In the meantime, traders will look forward to the release of US monthly retail sales data, a key highlight from today's economic docket, in order to grab some short-term opportunities. A follow-through up-move beyond $1247 area is likely to lift the commodity back towards $1252-53 supply zone en-route the next major hurdle near the $1258 region. On the flip side, $1240 level might protect the immediate downside, which if broken might drag the metal further towards 200-week SMA support near the $1234 region.

The dollar eased a bit against most major currencies on positive trade talks between China and the European Union although softer economic data from China and Beijing’s escalating trade war with the United States tempered the enthusiasm. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday the country will raise its market access and reduce tariff rates as it seeks more balanced trade with the European Union.

The US dollar was higher across the board against major pairs on Friday. Trade war concerns rose heading into the weekend and the comments from US President Donald Trump during the week sparked a rally of USD buying. Trump has been outspoken on NATO, trade and the Brexit deal while...