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Trading in the FX Market is more than just plotting indicators and placing an EA on a chart. Fundamentals are the catalyst and the driving force behind price moves, and if you aren’t keeping your ear to the ground, any one of a myriad of news events can seriously ruin your day. Bookmark this page to stay up-to-date on trending news and upcoming news events that affect your trading.

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PIG TODAY-BoE’s Vlieghe: No need for tightening - BBH

Analysts at BBH points out that BOE’s MPC member Vlieghe played down the need for tightening and said that he needs to see evidence of strong wage growth before voting for a rate hike. Key Quotes “We continue to believe that markets are overestimating the capacity of the BOE to tighten this year.  Carney has been very […]

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PIG TODAY-24.03.2017-Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: Odds for a move above 1.0870/75 are not high. EUR traded within a tight range yesterday and closed on a weak note. While upward pressure is waning, another attempt to move towards 1.0870/75 (last November’s high) could not be ruled out just yet even though the odds for such a move are not high. On the […]

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PIG TODAY-EUR/JPY: Deeper decline is now on the cards - Natixis

Micaella Feldstein, Research Analyst at Natixis, suggests that the break below 120.70 (daily Bollinger moving average) for EUR/JPY pair has undermined the daily upside bubble, negating any prospect for a rally above 122.70-122.90 (daily Bollinger upper band) in the coming days. Key Quotes “A deeper decline towards a support […]

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PIG TODAY-US Dollar gravitating around 99.50 ahead of House vote

The US Dollar Index – which gauges the greenback vs. its main rivals – stays within a tight range around 99.50 on Thursday ahead of the key House vote. US Dollar focus on Trump The index is extending its near term consolidative theme amidst some caution ahead of the House voting on the American Health Care Act. The vote has […]

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PIG TODAY-US stocks mildly lower as healthcare vote looms

Major US equity indices opened with mild bearish bias on Thursday, but struggled for a firm direction as investors remain cautious ahead of an important vote on Trump's health-care bill.Today's House vote on the Trump-backed GOP plan to replace the Affordable Care Act would provide clarity on Trump's ability to deliver on […]

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PIG TODAY-A Donald Trump vs. Janet Yellen clash is getting closer to happening

A week ago, all looked well in the world of the Federal Reserve and Chair Janet Yellen: Economic hopes were high, the markets were performing well, and the central bank was well on its way to restoring some sense of normalcy after a decade of historically loose monetary policy. Suddenly, things have gotten murkier. The […]

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PIG TODAY-EUR/JPY expected to hold around 119.40 – Commerzbank

The correction lower in EUR/JPY is seen holding on to the 119.40 area, noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.Key Quotes “EUR/JPY continues to sell off from its four month resistance line at 122.72 and also the 2015-2017 downtrend. The market has eroded 120.02 March 8 low and this leaves the 5 […]

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PIG TODAY-BOE’s Broadbent: Possible that rates could rise in UK

More comments flowing in from the BOE policymaker Ben Broadbent, via Reuters, as he continues to speak at Imperial College, in London.Key Points: It's reasonable to expect the big deficit in primary income, part of the current account balance, to go away Doesn't see much pressure from wage growth and unit costs Won't say if […]

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PIG TODAY-23.03.2017-Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: Odds for a move above 1.0870/75 are not high. The 1.0825/30 level that we have talked about since Thursday was finally met with an overnight high of 1.0825. Shorter-term upward momentum is slowing down and while a move above 1.0825/30 would not be surprising, the odds for a break above last December high […]

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PIG TODAY-Fed: Baseline policy rate expectation is for two further rate rises this year to 1.5% - Lloyds Bank

Research Team at Lloyds Bank suggests that their baseline Fed policy rate expectation is for two further rate rises this year to 1.5% (previously 1.25%) and three hikes in 2018 to 2.25% (previously two hikes to 1.75%).Key Quotes “We have nudged up our 10-year Treasury yield forecasts by 10bps to 2.8% at end-2017 and 3.1% at […]

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PIG TODAY-USD/JPY extends bearish slide further below 111.00 handle

The USD/JPY pair prolonged its ongoing bearish slide and tumbled below the 111.00 handle to a four-month low. Currently trading around 110.80-75 region, spot ran through fresh offers and accelerated the downslide during early NA session amid risk-aversion environment in wake of yet another weaker opening for the US equity […]

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PIG TODAY-USD: Should We Care About The Obamacare Vote On Thursday? - Credit Agricole

Credit Agricole CIB Research notes that the USD has been sold aggressively across the board after the dovish March hike by the Fed and, more recently, ahead of the vote in the US Congress on the Affordable Care Act (ACA or Obamacare) repeal bill Thursday.In that regard, CACIB argues that the outcome of the vote in the House […]

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PIG TODAY-Gold retreats from 3-week tops amid modest USD recovery

Gold reversed majority of its early gains to three week tops near $1249 level and has now moved on the brink of breaking into negative territory.A modest greenback recovery, with the key US Dollar Index bouncing off multi-week troughs, seems to be a key factor prompting traders to take some profits off the table. It is […]

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PIG TODAY-Dollar Bulls Are Throwing in the Towel as Trump Wagers Evaporate

Four months after the dawn of the Trump trade, currency investors worldwide are capitulating.That’s the signal from Bank of America Corp.’s flow data, which blends positioning and sentiment surveys conducted with its hedge fund and real-money clients, and publicly available futures data. The bank’s takeaway is that bullish […]

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PIG TODAY-Classic models are failing FX hedge funds desperate for return

It was supposed to be the year of the great comeback for currency traders. After all, didn’t Donald Trump reignite the animal spirits of financial markets by promising a slew of growth-boosting reforms? It turns out currency managers feel more powerless than emboldened. Most of the strategies traders use to generate profit […]

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PIG TODAY-EUR/USD drops to lows near 1.0780 on ECB’s Villeroy, weak EZ data

Having tested multi-week highs at 1.0819 in early Europe, the EUR/USDpair is on a retreat, now accelerating the downside to hit fresh daily lows near 1.0780, in response to worse-than expected Eurozone current account data, which came in at EUR 24.1bln in Jan versus previously revised EUR 30.8bln and EUR 29.3bln […]

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PIG TODAY-22.03.2017-Tech Targets: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: Recovery to extend to 1.0825/30. It took a while but EUR finally managed to move above 1.0800 and hit an overnight high of 1.0819. This level is just below the solid 1.0825/30 resistance and as indicated in recent updates, is unlikely to yield so easily. That said, in view of the strong daily closing […]

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PIG TODAY-Fed’s Kaplan: 3 US rate hikes this year 'reasonable' baseline case

Reuters reporting headlines from Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, commenting on the Fed’s interest rates outlook for this year.Key Points: US well-served by March interest rate hike 3 US rate hikes this year 'reasonable' baseline case Fed is still accommodative, as is appropriate Removing accommodation should be done […]

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PIG TODAY-US: Focus on housing data this week – Natixis

In the United States, analysts at Natixis expect existing home sales to decline slightly in February (-1.9% to 5.58M units annualized), in line with the recent dynamic of pending home sales.Key Quotes “However, new homes sales should remain more or less stable during the same month (+0.2% to 556K units annualized). […]

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PIG TODAY-Gold struggles near 3-week tops, Fedspeak on sigh

The troy ounce of the precious metal is wobbling around fresh multi-week tops above $1,230 on Tuesday ahead of key Fed speakers.Gold focus on Fed speakers Bullion is looking to extend its advance for the fourth consecutive session today, always against the backdrop of an increasing selling pressure around the US dollar. In […]

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PIG TODAY-US: Focus on Fed speak - TDS

Research Team at TDS suggests that Fed speak continues with Dudley, George, Mester and Rosengren all on the docket.Key Quotes “Dudley, the only board member, should draw significant attention for his early morning comments though we note that he will be speaking on banking culture and may not reference the outlook. George, […]

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PIG TODAY-UK inflation jumps to 2.3% – GBP jumps

Higher than expected inflation in the UK. Month over month CPI rises by 0.7%, pushing the year over year CPI to 2.3%. Core CPI is up to 2%. All the numbers are 0.2% above predictions.GBP extends its gains: GBP/USD breaks resistance at 1.2420 and reaches a new high of 1.2460. The Retail Price Index also beats expectations […]

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PIG TODAY-Euro Advances as Macron Emerges Most Convincing in French Debate

The euro rose, approaching a six-week high, as political concerns in the region were seen as easing after a poll showed anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen losing ground in the French presidential debate.

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PIG TODAY-21.03.2017-Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: Recovery to extend to 1.0825/30. EUR closed largely unchanged yesterday and there is no change to our view wherein we expect the current recovery to extend towards 1.0825/30. This level is the year-to-date high and is a solid resistance and is not expected to yield so easily (next resistance is at the […]

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PIG TODAY-USD longs fell back, EUR shorts plunged - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank lists down the IMM net speculators’ positioning as at 14 March, 2017.Key Quotes “Having lurched higher the previous week, USD longs fell back ahead of the March FOMC meeting. The lack of hawkish commentary from the FOMC suggest that longs are likely to slip further in the next set of data.” “EUR shorts […]

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PIG TODAY-EUR: PMIs To Have Little Impact This Week; Sell EUR/USD Close To 1.08 - Credit Agricole

This week’s main focus for the EUR traders will be on preliminary PMI releases for the month of March, at least when it comes to data, notes Credit Agricole CIB Research.In that regard, CACIB expects business activity to continue improving at a healthy pace, but argues that such an outcome is unlikely to have any meaningful […]

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PIG TODAY-EUR/USD holding on to daily gains near mid-1.0700s

The EUR/USD pair failed to break through Friday's multi-week highs resistance and has now retreated back to mid-1.0700s during early NA session.Spot once again ran through some offers near 1.0780 region, amid modest greenback recovery. In fact, the key US Dollar Index quickly reversed early dip to over 5-week lows, and […]

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PIG TODAY-Gold extends post-Fed gain as dollar slips to multi week lows

Silver looks to add to last week’s nearly 3% gain

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PIG TODAY-Fed path unchanged - SocGen

Research Team at Societe Generale notes the Fed has raised federal funds target rate to 0.75-1%, but in a context of virtually unchanged economic projections, both in terms of the macro outlook and the path of the fed funds rates. Key Quotes “Indeed, Chair Yellen noted that the hike is not a reflection of a reassessment of […]

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PIG TODAY-20.03.2017- Tech Targets: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: Recovery to extend to 1.0825/30.While EUR closed on a slightly weak note, the undertone is still positive and as long 1.0670 is not taken out, we continue to expect another leg higher towards 1.0825/30. This level is the year-to-date high and is a solid resistance and is not expected to yield so easily […]

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PIG TODAY-Why the tide is turning against the US dollar

If confidence in Trump’s political programme falters, and if Europe survives the ‘populist’ test in French and German elections, the strong dollar is at risk.You would be forgiven for feeling confused about the outlook for the major currencies over the coming months.Uncertain economic cycles, mixed monetary messages and […]

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PIG TODAY-Week Ahead: EUR To Gain, USD To Consolidate, GBP A Sell On Rallies

On the EUR front, CACIB argues that abating political risks, growing Eurozone rates and core EGB yields seem to point at stronger EUR, especially if the French polls show no shift in the voter intentions. In that regard, CACIB advises selling EUR/USD rallies close to 1.08 (see here).On the USD front, CACIB  expects next […]

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Market Events to Watch This Week

Monday, March 208:30pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Tuesday, March 215:30am GBP CPI y/y8:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m Wednesday, March 2210:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories4:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate4:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement Thursday, March 235:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m8:00am USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks8:30am […]

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Week Ahead Dollar Drops After Rate Hike

Fed speakers could stop USD slide The USD is weaker against major currencies across the board after the Fed hiked rates for the third time since the financial crisis but lacked upgrades to the economic projections. A proactive but patient Fed, with other central banks standing pat, meant the forward looking FX market came […]

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PIG TODAY-USD/CHF: A Weekly Bearish Engulfing In The Making; Levels & Targets - SocGen

Looking at USD/CHF long-term charts, Societe Generale FX Technical Strategy notes that the up move in USD/CHF faltered near its November 2015 high of 1.0340 last December, and a correction has followed.On the weekly charts, SocGen notes that the current weekly close will most likely form a bearish engulfing, which indicates […]

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PIG TODAY-EUR/JPY looks neutral near term – Commerzbank

The outlook on EUR/JPY appears neutral in the short term, noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. Key Quotes “EUR/JPY is easing back from its four month resistance line at 122.79 and also the 2015-2017 downtrend. These represent pretty tough resistance for the market but we look for dips lower to […]

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PIG TODAY-EUR/USD retreats after hitting fresh multi-week tops

The EUR/USD pair struggled to build on early gains to fresh five week tops and turned sharply lower, erasing all of its gains recorded in the previous session. The post-FOMC selling pressure surrounding the greenback seems to have abated and prompted traders to take some profits off the table ahead of the US economic […]

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PIG TODAY-Central Bank of Turkey: Keep calm and carry on - Natixis

Inna Mufteeva, Research Analyst at Natixis, explains that once again the CBRT decided not to move its key rate even after the inflation rose to a double digit figure of 10.1% due to the past currency depreciation and rising food prices.Key Quotes “Instead, it proceeded with the 75bps increase of the late liquidity window […]

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PIG TODAY-17.03.2017-Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: Recovery to extend to 1.0825/30. EUR closed higher for the second straight day and we continue to hold the view that the current strength has room to extend higher towards the year-to-date high at 1.0825/30. This is a rather strong resistance and is unlikely to yield so easily (next resistance is at last […]

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PIG TODAY-Oil: OPEC compliance remains high despite usual data volatility – Goldman Sachs

Analysts at Goldman Sachs explains that the recently oil prices declined following the release of February output estimates by OPEC which featured higher Saudi production as these data points were however for “direct communication” reporting, with the “secondary sources” used to track compliance to the cuts showing instead […]

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PIG TODAY-Why China Unexpectedly Hiked Rates 10 Hours After The Fed

As we reported on Wednesday evening, something interesting took place on Thursday morning in Beijing: in a case of eerie coordination, China tightened monetary conditions across many of the PBOC's liquidity-providing conduits just 10 hours after the Fed raised its own interest rate by 0.25% for only the third time in a […]

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PIG TODAY-EUR/USD door open for a test of 1.0825/30 – UOB

FX Strategists at UOB Group believes there is room for EUR/USD to retest the 1.0830 region in the next weeks.Key Quotes “After two days of rather sharp decline, the sudden swing higher was unexpected”. “The immediate pressure has shifted to the upside and the current EUR strength appears incomplete. The recovery appears to […]

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PIG TODAY-Mixed Signals from the Eurozone

BRUSSELS – What does the eurozone’s future hold? It depends where you look. Some economic indicators suggest that things are looking up for the common currency’s survival; for example, employment has returned to its pre-crisis peak, and per capita GDP growth exceeded that of the United States last year. At the same time, […]

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PIG TODAY-BOE’s Forbes Votes for Rate Hike, Others May Not Be Far Behind

Bank of England policy maker Kristin Forbes voted for an interest-rate increase and some others indicated they may not be far behind her. As the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee balances a desire to support growth against concern about a currency-fueled pickup in inflation, Forbes said the trade-off has shifted. For […]

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PIG TODAY- When is the BOE and how could it affect GBP/USD?

BOE monetary policy decision OverviewIt’s a ‘Super Thursday’ again and time for the Bank of England’s(BOE) take on its monetary policy program, which will be announced at 1200GMT, alongside the release of monetary policy meeting minutes. The BOE is widely expected to keep the bank rate unchanged at 0.25% and maintain a […]

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PIG TODAY-EM FX recovered the smile post-FOMC – Danske Bank

Analyst at Danske Bank Thomas Rosenlund noted the positive impact from the recent FOMC meeting on the Emerging Markets space. Key Quotes “Emerging markets’ FX rallied following the Fed meeting, recovering much ground lost after the recent pricing of the March Fed rate hike over the past couple of weeks”. “Notably, the most […]

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PIG TODAY-16.03.2017-Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: Recovery to extend to 1.0825/30.After two days of rather sharp decline, the sudden swing higher was unexpected. The immediate pressure has shifted to the upside and the current EUR strength appears incomplete. The recovery appears to have room to extend higher towards the year-to-date high at 1.0825/30 but […]

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PIG TODAY-FOMC outlook hasn’t materially changed during the inter-meeting period - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explain that as expected, the FOMC raised the federal funds target range from 0.50-0.75% to 0.75-1.00% and in the press conference, Chair Yellen indicated that the economy has made solid progress toward the goals of maximum employment and 2% longer-run inflation target but she also said that the economy […]

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PIG TODAY- BOJ Statement on Monetary Policy

At the monetary policy meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided upon the following: 1. Yield Curve Control. The Bank decided by a 7-2 majority vote, to set the following guideline for market operations for the intermeeting period. The short-term policy rate: The Bank will apply a negative rate of […]

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PIG TODAY-EUR/USD neutral near term, between 1.0520 and 1.0720 – UOB

EUR/USD’s outlook stays on the neutral side for the time being and is expected to navigate within the 1.0520/10720 range, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes “While we indicated that EUR has made a short-term top yesterday, the sharp and rapid decline to a low of 1.0597 was unexpected. The down-move appears to […]

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PIG TODAY-FOMC Preview: Focus on the rationale for a hike and the outlook for the rest of the year - HSBC

Kevin Logan, Chief US Economist at HSBC, notes that the Fed officials have sent clear signals about their intention to raise the federal funds rate at the March FOMC meeting and HSBC expects a 25bp rate hike but the focus will be on the rationale for a hike and the outlook for the rest of the year. Key Quotes “The FOMC […]

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PIG TODAY-US: Has the Fed fallen behind the curve? – Goldman Sachs

David Mericle, Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs, points out that as inflation continues to normalize and job growth remains hot, the Fed is increasingly facing accusations of being behind the curve. Key Quotes “The Fed’s current policy stance is about 1pp easier than prescribed by a Taylor rule that uses a depressed neutral […]

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PIG TODAY-ECB‘s Praet: Still conditional on very easy financial conditions

Commnts flowing in from the ECB governing council member Peter Praet, as reported by Reuters.Key Points: Hard data in Europe still has to confirm what we see in confidence indicator Still conditional on very easy financial conditions ECB doesn’t want market to overshoot -not yet at regime change Steady hand evolution that […]

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PIG TODAY-Gold gains on political uncertainty, Fed in focus

Gold gained some traction on Wednesday and was seen building on to its recovery back above the key $1200 psychological mark.Currently trading around $1204 region, uncertainty over the outcome of the Dutch elections was seen boosting demand for the precious metal's safe-haven appeal. Adding to this, growing concerns over a […]

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PIG TODAY-15.03.2017-Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: Back in range; likely within 1.0520/1.0720. The ease of which the strong 1.0615 support was taken out came as a surprise (overnight low of 1.0597). The recent build-up in upward momentum has fizzled out and EUR is deemed to have moved back into a range, likely between 1.0520 and 1.0720. GBP/USD: Neutral: […]

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PIG TODAY-Brexit begins: What to expect from the economy and politics over the next two years - ING

Analysts at ING explain that with Article 50 set to be triggered by the end of March, formal Brexit negotiations will finally get underway and from the outset it is clear they are not going to be easy or straight forward. Key Quotes “Already there are disagreements over the negotiation process - the EU wants the divorce […]

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PIG TODAY-US stocks weighed down by slump in oil prices; Fed in focus

Major US equity indices witnessed a weak opening on Tuesday as investors remained reluctant to carry big bets ahead of the much awaited Fed monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to go ahead and raise interest rates but investors remain keen to know the timing, and pace of future rate-hikes, and hence […]

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PIG TODAY-Moody's - Next Fed rate hike will have "little" effect on US borrowing costs - RTRS

Reported by Reuters Expect that the Fed will raise rates another two or three times this year in increments of 25 bps, after raising rates at the March meeting Rate hike would reflect a US economy nearing full employment Next Fed rate hike will have "little" effect on US borrowing costs Net interest expense will rise […]

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PIG TODAY-CAD: Asymmetric Risks To Oil; 1.3420 Key Pivot Ahead Of FOMC - TD

TD Research argues that CAD risks to oil prices are asymmetric around current levels. "That means, we see more downside than upside, owing to the higher breakeven levels in Canada’s oil sands region," TD adds. Adding to that, TD believes that a further pullback in the Trump trade does leave CAD exposed, especially if oil […]

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PIG TODAY-OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, March 2017

The OPEC Reference Basket rose in February for the third consecutive month, ending up about 2% to average $53.37/b. Crude futures, traded in a relatively narrow range for the second month in a row. High compliance with supply adjustments by OPEC and some non-OPEC producers supported gains. In the crude futures markets, ICE […]

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PIG TODAY-14.03.2017-Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: Immediate upwards pressure towards 1.0750.EUR hit a high of 1.0714 yesterday before pulling back sharply. Despite the pull-back, the undertone is still positive and another attempt higher towards 1.0750 still seems likely (after the current short-term consolidation phase is over). Only a move back below […]

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PIG TODAY-US: Market still thinks the Fed will drag its heels - AmpGFX

Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that the fact that the Fed appears ready to follow up its December hike so soon (three months later) suggests it is more serious this time, and might at least stay on its previous projection of three hikes this year. Key Quotes “In her speech on 3 March, Fed […]

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PIG TODAY-Reuters poll: BOJ expected to pull back from stimulus maybe as early as this year

According to the latest Reuters poll on the BOJ’s monetary policy outlook, a majority of the economists surveyed expect the BOJ to begin unwinding its massive stimulus program sometime this year. Key findings from the survey: 28 of 35 economists expect BOJ to pull back from easy monetary policy when it decides to change its […]

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PIG TODAY-DRAGHI-Moving to the Frontier: Promoting the Diffusion of Innovation

Welcome address by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the joint conference by the ECB and the MIT Lab for Innovation Science and Policy “Fostering Innovation and Entrepreneurship in the Euro area”, Frankfurt am Main, 13 March 2017It is my pleasure to welcome you to this joint ECB-MIT conference on fostering innovation […]

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PIG TODAY-USD/JPY scope for a decent pullback – Commerzbank

In light of the recent price action, USD/JPY is could see a decent pullback ahead of another leg higher, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. Key Quotes “The market finished the week above the 55 day ma and the top of the cloud and has also eroded the 15th February high at 114.95. It has […]

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PIG TODAY-Gold firmer near $1,210, Fed on sight

The troy ounce of the precious metal has regained the critical $1,200 handle and above on Monday.Gold focus on FOMC meeting Bullion has managed to leave behind Friday’s multi-week lows in sub-$1,200 levels, as the persistent and renewed selling interest around the greenback has given extra legs to the USD-denominated […]

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PIG TODAY-At the Fed, spring comes early with return to new 'normal'

U.S. household wealth has hit record levels. U.S. stock prices recently hit all-time highs. Inflation is nearing the Federal Reserve's 2.0 percent goal, and the world economy including the once-sick eurozone has skirted the risk of a deep new downturn. When Fed Chair Janet Yellen holds her first press conference of 2017 on […]

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PIG TODAY-13.03.2017-Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: Immediate upwards pressure towards 1.0750.The strong surge higher in EUR last Friday that easily took the strong resistances at 1.0640 and 1.0680 was unexpected. While the outlook for this pair has improved considerably, at this stage, it is too early to expect a sustained rally. That said, the immediate […]

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PIG TODAY-USD: Taking a breather - Westpac

Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, explains that after a strong run during the past month, the US dollar has taken a breath and the 15 Mar FOMC decision is the key US event this week (datawise we have CPI, retail sales and the early March PMIs, which should be overshadowed). Key Quotes “A 25bp Fed hike is assured, […]

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PIG TODAY-JP Morgan raises USD/JPY forecast to 105 for 2017-end

In a latest note published on Monday via Bloomberg, the analysts at JP Morgan raised its USD/JPY price-forecast for year end to 105 from 99 previous.Key Reasons behind the upgrade: Better relations between the US and Japan & prospect of aggressive Fed tightening (JPM expect 3 Fed rates this year) Key Quotes: "Recent […]

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Market Events To Watch This Week

Monday, March 139:30am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks10:00pm CNY Industrial Production y/yTuesday, March 146:00 am EUR German ZEW Survey8:30am USD PPI m/m Wednesday, March 158:30am USD CPI m/m8:30am USD Core CPI m/m8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories2:00pm USD FOMC […]

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Week Ahead: All Eyes on Fed

March rate hike at 93 percent probability The U.S. dollar is higher against most major pairs as the two day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to bring forth the first U.S. interest rate hike of 2017. The FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday, March 13 at 2:00 pm EDT ( 7:00 pm GMT) with a […]

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PIG TODAY-Stocks up, dollar firm as U.S. jobs data set to clear path for higher rates

Stocks rose, the dollar was on track for its fifth week of gains and crude oil rebounded slightly on Friday ahead of closely watched U.S. payrolls data which is expected to give the Federal Reserve the green light to raise interest rates next week.Non-farm payrolls probably increased by 190,000 jobs last month while […]

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PIG TODAY-D-Day for NFP

Friday March 10: Five things the markets are talking aboutAn upbeat payrolls report will add to expectations that the Fed will raise rates next week (Mar 14-15). Today’s headline print is expected to be high (+197k and +4.7%) given the extremely high ADP employment figures we have seen this week. Any serious deviation to […]

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PIG TODAY-May Is Told Brexit Hard Truths as EU Readies for Talks

Germany says EU won’t divide, Denmark warns on trade deal Ireland and U.K. differ over paying an exit bill to EUPrime Minister Theresa May was served a series of reminders about how tough the European Union plans to be in the looming Brexit negotiations. From Berlin to Brussels, interviews and leaked documents showed EU […]

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PIG TODAY- NFP report to be scrutinised intensively following Fed hike speculation – Danske Bank

According to the analysts at Danske Bank, the US February jobs report (14:30 CET) will be scrutinised intensively following the recent speculation about the prospect of a Fed hike on Wednesday next week. Key Quotes “At the moment, it seems that it would take a significant downside surprise to keep the Fed from hiking. We […]

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PIG TODAY-Reasons for ECB to strike a cautious note

... Mr Draghi makes no major changes to policy outlook Many arguments in favour of cautious approach at this point in time We see notably increased optimism as a subtle first step away from dovishness New inflation projections suggest ‘core' inflation to reach ECB target by 2019.... ...beginning a possibly crooked path to […]

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PIG TODAY-10.03.2017-Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: Around a 1.0490/1.0590 range. We indicated yesterday that ‘unless EUR can move and stay above 1.0610 by end of today, it is more likely that this pair has moved into a consolidation phase’. EUR closed at 1.0540 and from here we expect this pair to trade sideways around a 1.0490/1.0590 range. EUR has been […]

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PIG TODAY-ECB: Less dovish than expected - Natixis

Alan Lemangnen, Research Analyst at Natixis, explains that as expected by them, the ECB staff revised up its macroeconomic projections for the euro area and slightly increased the GDP growth forecast in 2017 and in 2018, while inflation projections have faced substantial adjustments.Key Quotes “The core inflation […]

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PIG TODAY-PBOC’s Zhou: There is no basis for continued depreciation of the Yuan

More comments flowing in from the PBOC Governor Zhou across the wires, via Reuters, as he continues to speak at an event in Beijing, alongside other PBOC officials. Key Headlines: Capital flows will be more balanced in the future There is no basis for continued depreciation of the Yuan

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PIG TODAY-Is the Fed Behind on Tightening? Watch This Inflation Indicator

With investors already banking on the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates next week, attention has shifted to whether the central bank has fallen behind in its quest to keep inflation from rising too quickly.The answer will become clearer Friday when the February jobs report lands at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. While the […]

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PIG TODAY-Inflation pressures remain subdued - Draghi

Key highlights from the introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, following the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank on 9 March 2017: Interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time We'll continue to make purchases under the QE program at […]

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PIG TODAY-Monetary policy decisions

PRESS RELEASE9 March 2017At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continues to […]

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PIG TODAY-German bankers want Draghi to signal end to stimulus

The German banking industry has urged the European Central Bank to give a signal today that it could start unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policy stance soon.Reuters has the story: The BdB private banking association said the fact that the threat of deflation has disappeared in the euro zone and inflation was picking up […]

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PIG TODAY-ECB unlikely to renew TLTROs when ECB meets today - BBG

Bloomberg quoting people familiar with the issue, citing that the ECB is not considering to announce a new round of free long-term loans to financial institutions (TLTRO) after its policy meeting today.Targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) won’t be renewed for now, the people said, asking not to be named […]

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PIG TODAY-09.03.2017-Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: In a 1.0490/1.0590 range.We indicated yesterday that ‘unless EUR can move and stay above 1.0610 by end of today, it is more likely that this pair has moved into a consolidation phase’. EUR closed at 1.0540 and from here we expect this pair to trade sideways within a 1.0490/1.0590 range. EUR has been […]

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PIG TODAY-ECB Preview: Expect no change to rates, nor to QE, nor to forward guidance - Citi

Analysts at Citi offer a sneak peek into the ECB policy announcement and ECB President Draghi’s press conference due on the cards later today. Key Points: Despite likely much higher 2017 HICP they see no change to rates, nor to the size of QE, nor to forward guidance Perhaps the balance of risks changes to neutral.

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PIG TODAY-Countdown to Brexit: What Is Article 50?

British voters decided to leave the European Union (EU) on June 23, 2016, but the referendum itself did not take Britain out of the bloc. Careless headlines aside, the U.K. is not "post-Brexit": it remains very much a member of the EU, every bit as subject to its trade and immigration rules as it was on June 22, 2016. A lot […]

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PIG TODAY-Budget 2017: £2bn for social care and tax rise for self-employed

Chancellor Philip Hammond has announced an extra £2bn for under-pressure social care services in England in the Budget. Mr Hammond also promised to help firms hit by business rate rises - but increased national insurance bills for many self-employed people.On the economy he said growth was expected to be higher - and […]

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PIG TODAY-Turkish central bank signals more tightening possible, lira weakens

Lira weakens more than 1 percent as stronger signal expected * Central to hold policy meeting on March 16 * Governor sees inflation downtrend from mid-year (Adds analyst comment, markets, background) By Nevzat Devranoglu DENIZLI, Turkey, March 8 The Turkish Central Bank will closely monitor pricing behaviour and implement […]

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PIG TODAY-EUR: Trading under pressure against the dollar – BBH

Analysts at BBH explains that the euro is lower for the third session against the greenback and after last Friday; the euro snapped a three-day slide and has now retraced 61.8% of its bounce (~$1.0550).Key Quotes “The euro was unable to resurface above $1.06 in North America yesterday, and this will likely continue to cap […]

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PIG TODAY-BoJ’s way out of the current impasse: Use a 0% floor rather than a target for JGB yields - Natixis

Analysts at Natixis expect the BoJ to announce a change in its recently introduced intermediary target as a way to limit the reputational cost for the BoJ of a too frequent, and seemingly erratic, change in targets, would be to reinterpret the 0% as a floor for the 10 year JGB yield rather than a targetKey Quotes “By […]

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PIG TODAY-08.03.2017-Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

EUR/USD: Neutral: Strong rebound to extend to 1.0680. While we still hold the view that the strong rebound from last Friday 1.0499 low has room to extend higher towards 1.0680, the muted trading over the last couple of days has dented the immediate upward pressure. Unless EUR can move and stay above 1.0610 by end of today, […]

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PIG TODAY-GBP: PM In Second Defeat On Article 50 Bill: EUR/GBP En-Route To 0.87 - Danske

The UK government suffered its second defeat in the House of Lords in less than a week, as the Lords voted for an amendment to the EU bill demanding a ‘meaningful vote’ on the final Brexit deal (366 voted in favour, 268 voted against). On Wednesday, the Lords amended the EU bill by demanding protection of EU citizens […]

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PIG TODAY-China’s Feb trade data (Yuan terms)

China's trade balance for February, in Yuan terms, came in at -60.4 billion CNY vs 172.5bn expected and 354.5bn last. Exports came at 4.2% y/y vs 14.6% expected and 15.9% last, while imports were +44.7% y/y vs 23.1% expected and 25.2% last. The release in USD terms will hit the wires within the next hour approximately. The […]

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PIG TODAY-Why is market volatility so low when uncertainty is so high?

‘Certainty creates volatility, not uncertainty’: Barrow

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PIG TODAY-Bank of England: Charlotte Hogg broke code of conduct over non-disclosure of brother's Barclays job

Charlotte Hogg, the new deputy Governor of the Bank of England, broke the Bank’s official internal code of conduct when she failed to declare to the Threadneedle Street authorities that her brother worked for Barclays. The chair of the Bank’s governing Court, Anthony Habgood, on Tuesday declared this a "very serious […]

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PIG TODAY-Growth worries keep a lid on the FTSE 100’s gain

Stocks in the U.K. were clinging to thin gains Tuesday, as concerns about British economic growth capped a stronger rise for the benchmark FTSE 100. The FTSE 100 UKX, +0.08% edged up 0.1% to 7,356.19, led by the basic materials and consumer goods groups, while utility and industrial shares were in the red. On Monday, the […]

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PIG TODAY-JPY: Trapped Between Rates And Risk - Credit Agricole

The JPY remains trapped between two competing themes that are driving FX markets.While the re-pricing of the chance of a FOMC rate hike in March has weighed on the JPY in the past week, investors continue to also look at European political risks, which are helping support the JPY. Indeed, demand from investors for hedging […]

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PIG TODAY-Exclusive - Hard Brexit would trigger 'leaching' of banks from UK - draft report

A draft report on the impact of Brexit on Britain's financial industry warns banks and staff would "leach" away, undermining the wider UK economy, if they do not have access to European Union markets, according to sources who have read the report. The report has been written by law firm Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer for […]

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