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Gold prices may already have hit bottom for the year after declining for the past six months in a row—the longest streak of losses in nearly three decades. Lower prices have contributed to a boost in global central-bank purchases of gold. Other signs of...

EUR long positions had already dropped heavily in the middle of September. Although they subsequently won back some ground, they fell back into negative ground again last week. GBP shorts have been choppy in recent weeks...

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that the US growth surprise allowed rate hikes but higher interest rates are no longer necessary. He further added that the...

The EUR/JPY pair closed at 130.96 on Friday, confirming a downside break of the trendline connecting the Aug. 15 low and Sept. 10 low.The daily chart also shows a bearish crossover between the 5 and 10 exponential moving average (EMA). So, it seems safe to say that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

he US dollar was mixed Friday. The greenback advanced against the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD AND NZD) edging higher against the CHF, but was lower agains the JPY and the EUR. The GBP deserves a special...

The EUR/JPY pair has found acceptance below the 50-hour, 100-hour, and 200-hour exponential moving averages (EMAs), having established lower highs and lower lows pattern on the hourly chart in the last seven days.

The EUR/USD pair broke down of its Asian/early European session consolidative trading range and dropped to fresh session lows, below mid-1.1700s in the last hour. A goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand was seen as one of the key factors exerting some fresh downward pressure over the past hour or so, with the pair erasing of the previous session's modest gains to the 1.1800 neighbourhood.

EUR/GBP main bull trend remains intact as the market is trading above its 100 and 200-day simple moving averages. EUR/GBP is finding some support at 0.8940 (August 14 high) as the market is consolidating the gains made last week. While the RSI is bullish, the MACD and Stochastics indicators are losing some momentum. However, bulls can come back at any time and put an end to the pullback by lifting the market to 0.9000 figure and 0.9032 (August 9 high)

The pair has been steadily climbing alongside a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on the 1-hourly chart since the early North-American session on Friday. The positive momentum stalled near the trend-channel resistance, also coinciding with 200-hour SMA amid a fresh wave of broad-based USD selling pressure. Considering the pair's recent decline, the ascending channel seems to constitute towards a bearish flag chart pattern formation on the mentioned chart.

Analysts at RBS note that the foreign appetite for US financial assets shows few signs of waning. Key Quotes “Net foreign demand for long-term US securities rebounded to $74.8bn in July after net sales of $36bn in June, driven by significant overseas buying of US securities and sizeable US sales of foreign financial assets.”

The cross is extending the recent breakout of the critical 200-day SMA at 131.10, trading well above the 132.00 handle although below Friday’s tops just beyond 133.00 the figure. The recent up move has retaken the 133.00 handle and above at the end of last week, although sellers showed up afterwards. Still on the upside, the next target is now April’s top at 133.53. If momentum picks up further pace, YTD top at 137.53 (February 2) should be back on the radar. The constructive view remains in place as long as the short-term support line, today at 129.58, underpins.

According to Axel Rudolph, Senior Analyst at Commerzbank, the pair’s stance remains offered while below 0.9789. Key Quotes “USD/CHF’s is back under pressure and nears the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at .9524. Below it lie the February high at .9470 and the mid- and late March lows at .9434/25. Further down the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement can be spotted at .9376. Rallies should find initial resistance offered by the 200 day ma at .9735 and remain contained by the .9789 June low”.

24-hour view: “While we highlighted yesterday “the consolidation phase appears to be close to completion”, our expectation for a likely downside break was wrong. EUR staged an abrupt and sharp rally that blast past the major 1.1725/35 resistance zone and came close to the next major resistance at 1.1790 (overnight high of 1.1785). The strong surge seems to be running ahead of itself but there is ample room for a move above 1.1790. That said, the June’s peak near 1.1851 is likely out of reach for today (minor resistance at 1.1825). On the downside, 1.1720 is expected to be strong enough to hold any intraday pullback (minor support is at 1.1750)”.

The AUD/USD pair broke its upside consolidation phase in early Europe and peeped briefly above the 0.73 handle before meeting fresh supply to now revert towards the 0.7285 region.

The GBP/USD is trapped in a tight range heading into Friday's London market session after seeing firm gains through Thursday's trading action, busting through the 1.3200 technical level as broader markets recover from recent trade war angst.

EUR/USD appears reluctant to tackle resistance offered by the 1.1745/50 area and the 1.1790 recent high. This has rejected the market many times and remains formidable resistance.

EUR/JPY keeps trading on a positive note on Wednesday, extending the rally beyond 131.00 the figure and at the same time re-taking the key 200-day SMA. The continuation of the bull run should allow for a test of July’s top just beyond the 132.00 milestone ahead of April’s high in the mid-133.00s. In addition, the cross remains constructive as long as the short-term support line, today at 129.03, holds. ‍

Analysts at TD Securities suggests that as the third $200bn batch of Section 301 tariffs on China has been announced by the Trump Administration, but they expect US inflationary impacts to be modest, along with negative growth impacts. Key Quotes “The finalized tariff list still targets a minority share of consumer goods and an even smaller share of the CPI basket. Import market share of the targeted goods is relatively small, and pass-through from capital and intermediate goods prices, which will bear the brunt of the tariff impact, is also low for the relevant categories.”

Advanced figures for GBP futures markets showed investors added just 770 contracts on Monday vs. Friday’s final 314,579 contracts, according to CME Group. On the other hand, volume dropped by almost 66.6K contracts. GBP/USD could test the 100-day SMA at 1.3170

The pair should keep the constructive outlook while above the 110.76, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.Key Quotes “USD/JPY is probing the 112.00/15 resistance and for now, while underpinned by the uptrend today at 110.76, our bias is positive. The market has recently tested and recovered from support offered by the 55 week moving average at 110.38 and the 200 day moving average at 109.76.

The Sterling is looking for higher gains as Brexit hopes push traders into the bullish camp. With trade wars beginning to ramp-up, buying pressure is going to face severe headwinds. The economic calendar remains thin until Wednesday's inflation reading for the UK, leaving buyers to look up towards the 200-day EMA slung high above current prices. ‍

EUR/JPY is extending the bounce off Friday’s lows and is now resuming the upside with immediate target the 200-day SMA, today at 131.11. A surpass of the key 200-day SMA should pave the way for a continuation of the bull run to July’s tops in levels just above 132.00 the figure. On the downside, the 129.00/50 band should offer decent contention. This area is coincident with late July lows and the 21-day/55-day/10-day SMA. ‍

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that in Sweden, the highlight of the day will be the minutes from the 6 September Riksbank meeting, which will be scrutinised for clues about the next policy step. Key Quotes “We will look for an indication of a first policy hike in either December or February.”

The Sterling-Dollar pairing is looking for more bullish momentum despite the US Dollar's broad-market bull moves recently.

The dollar bounced back on Friday, after a couple of economic indicator misses this week, the greenback is higher against all major pairs. Major pairs and commodities are lower against the greenback ahead of the weekend. The American currency did not....

The cross is prolonging the march higher today, adding to Thursday’s strong advance to the boundaries of 131.00 the figure on the back of the persistent improved tone in the risk-associated complex. EUR/JPY is already flirting with the 200-day SMA near 131.15 and opens the door for the continuation of the up move to. Initially, July’s tops just beyond the 132.00 milestone.

According to CME Group’s advanced figures for EUR futures markets, investors added around 16.8K contracts to their open interest position on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s final 549,540 contracts. In the same line, volume rose to its second largest level so far this year above 751K contracts, up by more than 231K from the previous day and recording the third build in a row.

The GBP/USD pair finally broke out of its Asian session consolidation phase and refreshed six-week tops in the last hour.The pair built on its bullish trajectory further beyond the 1.3100 handle, with a combination of supporting factors confirming that the near-term positive momentum remains well intact.The US Dollar continues to be weighed down by Thursday’s weaker than expected US consumer inflation figures, which coupled with Brexit optimism helped the pair to continue gaining positive traction for the fifth consecutive session.

24-hour view: “The sudden acceleration higher in USD that hit an overnight high of 111.99 was clearly not expected. Upward momentum has improved by considerably and from here, a move above the August’s peak of 112.14 would not surprise at all. However, the next resistance at 112.60 could be just out of reach for today. On the downside, we expect 111.35 to be strong enough to hold any intraday pull-back (minor support is at 111.60)”.

The shared currency remained apathetic after the ECB decision today, with EUR/USD a tad lower in the 1.1715/10 band. EUR/USD now focused on Draghi’s presser The pair remains in the upper end of the weekly range after the ECB’s Governing Council left its monetary conditions unchanged at today’s meeting, falling in line with market expectations.

Cable remains neutral although there is still scope for a test of 1.3170, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “GBP traded between 1.2980 and 1.3083 yesterday, higher than our expected 1.2960/1.3065 consolidation range. While upward momentum is not strong, there is room for GBP to edge above the overnight high of 1.3083 even though a break of the next resistance at 1.3105 would come as a surprise. Support is at 1.3020 but only a break of 1.2990 would indicate that a short-term top is in place”.

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that the key event today is the ECB meeting, in addition to the BoE meeting. Key Quotes “Albeit we do not expect big communication changes, the ECB will present new staff projections. We expect a marginal downward revision of the 2019 and 2020 projections, but no new policy signals as the central bank has been content with the current economic path and the market reaction to the recent increased forward guidance in June.”

“USD/CAD managed to heave itself from its August low at 1.2888 to its early September high at 1.3225 before coming off again”.

The EUR/USD pair extends its choppy trend into the European session, unable to sustain the bounce once again above the 1.16 handle, as the bulls remain unnerved ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting due tomorrow.Persistent demand for the US dollar amid looming US-China trade concerns and uncertainty over the trade talks between the US and Canada continues to keep the EUR/USD pair under pressure so far this Wednesday, with every upside attempt sold-off just ahead of the 1.1600 level.

The likeliness of further downside in the short-term horizon remains well on the cards, suggested FX Strategists at UOB 24-hour view: “We indicated yesterday that the strong up-move in EUR “has room to move above the overnight high of 1.1615 but a break of last week’s top of 1.1659 is not expected” and added, “1.1640 is already a strong level”. EUR subsequently rose to a high of 1.1643 before easing off quickly. Upward pressure has eased and we view the current movement as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, we expect EUR to trade sideways for today, likely within a 1.1560/1.1630 range”.

The USD/JPY pair was seen consolidating overnight strong gains to near one-week tops and traded with a mild negative bias through the Asian session on Wednesday. The pair found some fresh buying ahead of the 111.00 handle on Tuesday and was supported by a combination of positive factors. Renewed US Dollar demand, coupled with surging US Treasury bond yields and positive mood around the US equity markets pushed the pair beyond mid-111.00s.

he euro is rising for the second day in a row against the yen but retreated significantly from the top, signaling difficulties to the upside. The move higher lost strength slightly below 130.00 and a consolidation on top would clear the way to more gains. Before that level, it needs to break and hold above 129.75.

USD/JPY main bull trend is taking a breather since mid-July as the market has entered a trading range. USD/JPY bulls are trying to break above the bear trendline from July 17 but they will also have to break above the 112.00-112.17 zone (figure and August 1, swing high) if they wish to resume the bull trend. The RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators remain constructive to the upside. However, the 50, 100 and 200-period simple moving averages are flat suggesting that there is not yet convincing momentum in the market.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as U.S. sanctions squeezed Iranian crude exports, tightening global supply despite efforts by Washington to get other producers to increase output.

The yen slipped on Tuesday on news a Japanese chipmaker was buying a U.S. peer for $6.7 billion, while sterling held onto overnight gains after the European Union’s top negotiator raised hopes a Brexit deal can be struck in the coming weeks.

Forex today witnessed a recovery in risk appetite, despite looming US-China trade concerns, as the renewed optimism on the Brexit deal and NAFTA lifted market sentiment. As a result, the safe-haven Yen was broadly sold-off, driving the USD/JPY pair closer...

USD/CHF bulls have been lifting the market for two consecutive days as they are creating a pullback in the main bear trend. USD/CHF rose to the 200-day simple moving average where it is finding resistance. In the near term more sideways to down price action is expected as the market is in a range between 0.9768 (September 4 high) and 0.9640 (2018 low).

Sterling edged higher on Monday after posting its biggest weekly drop in a month last week against a broadly stable dollar as investors cut some large short positions, but Brexit concerns checked the gains.

The dollar traded higher against a basket of currencies on Monday amid fears of a potentially major escalation in the China-U.S. trade conflict, while Sweden’s crown rose following the previous day’s election.

Our recent expectation for EUR to extend its rebound was proven wrong as it plummeted last Friday and hit a low of 1.1548. While the low was just above the 1.1530 ‘key support’, the weak daily closing in NY is enough to indicate that the recent mild upward pressure has eased.

Market events to watch this week

The US dollar rose on Friday against all major pairs after a strong U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report was published. The US added 201,000 jobs, but more importantly hourly wages beat expectations in August coming in at 0.4 percent. The market has priced in a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve when Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members meet on September 25–26. Next up in the economic calendar are the releases of US inflation and retail sales data.

The pair built on its steady recovery move from over two-week lows and has now climbed to fresh session tops, further beyond the 111.00 handle on the back of upbeat US monthly jobs report.

The dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies on Thursday, as investors positioned themselves ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated jobs report for August.

We have held the same view since Monday (03 Sep, spot at 1.1595) wherein “EUR could drift lower but any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.1520/1.1675 consolidation range and not the start of a sustained decline”.

EUR/USD climbs to a fresh weekly-high (1.1659) even as data prints coming out of the euro-area instill a weakened outlook for the monetary union, and recent price action warns of a larger advance as the exchange rate initiates a fresh series of higher highs & lows.

Sterling will make solid gains on the dollar in the coming year, a Reuters poll found, but that climb is based on the assumption that Britain leaves the European Union next year with a deal.

We have held the same view since Monday (03 Sep, spot at 1.1595) wherein “EUR could drift lower but any weakness is viewed as part of a 1.1520/1.1675 consolidation range and not the start of a sustained decline”.

An overnight bounce in the pound after a report that the European Union could offer new guarantees to Britain to win London’s support for a solution aimed at avoiding a hard Irish border after Brexit faded on Wednesday as investors focused on the spreading selloff in emerging markets.

The British pound was set on Monday for its biggest daily drop against the euro in more than three months as concerns grew about the progress of Brexit negotiations.

EUR rebounded slightly after touching a low of 1.1582 yesterday. We continue to view last week’s 1.1733 peak as a short-term top and expect this level to remain intact for the next one week or so.

The greenback, gauges by the US Dollar Index, remains on the defensive at the beginning of the week although it manages well to keep business above 95.00 the figure for the time being.

The recent upward pressure has eased as EUR staged a surprisingly sharp decline last Friday and took out the 1.1590 ‘key support’. We indicated on Friday (31 Aug, spot at 1.1670) that a break of 1.1590 would suggest that a short-term top is in place. In other words, we do not...

Sterling fell on Monday as the latest Brexit headlines sapped investor sentiment, after the British currency gained to its highest in nearly a month last week.

Market events to watch this week

The US dollar is mixed in the last week of August. Risk aversion has risen after the US-Canada deal is close, but not agreed and new US tariffs on Chinese goods could start next week lifting the greenback abasing emerging markets and the EUR and CAD with only the GBP still flying after potentially beneficial Brexit news and the safe havens CHF and JPY.

Sterling held near a one-month high on Friday as hopes of a breakthrough on Brexit this week prompted some traders to cut back on aggressive short bets on the British currency.

The dollar edged up against its peers on Friday, finding support as the latest episode of U.S.-China trade tensions dulled investor risk appetite, with weakness in emerging market currencies also helping lift the greenback.

After touching a high of 1.1733 on Tuesday (28 Aug), EUR has not been able to make much headway on the upside. While upward pressure is starting to wane, there is still scope for EUR to make another run to test the major 1.1745 resistance.

GBP/USD has recorded slight losses in the Thursday session, after sharp gains on Wednesday. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 1.2996, down 0.25% on the day.

The EUR/USD pair faded an early European session bullish spike and quickly retreated around 40-45 pips from an intraday high level of 1.1718.

The euro fell to a one-week low against the British pound on Thursday, extending its losing streak overnight after the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator signalled an accommodative stance towards the United Kingdom in ongoing talks.

There is not much to add to yesterday’s update (28 Aug, spot at 1.1680) as EUR extended its gain to an overnight high of 1.1733. As highlighted, there is still scope for further EUR strength and the focus is at 1.1745.

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) extends its choppiness into Europe, although trades within a tight range, as markets await fresh impetus from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude stockpiles data for the next direction.

China’s yuan weakened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, snapping a three-day winning streak, pulled lower by rising corporate demand for cheaper greenbacks.

The dollar inched higher on Wednesday after dipping to a four-week low overnight, but relief over a U.S-Mexico trade deal was dimmed by concerns that the China-U.S. trade war will drag on for some time.

Analysts at Scotiabank explained that the GBP wobbled earlier in London trade on Brexit noise.

The Japanese yen is unchanged in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 111.05, down 0.03% on the day. On the release front, BoJ Core CPI edged up to 0.5%, above the estimate of 0.3%. In the U.S, manufacturing and consumer confidence data was stronger than expected. CB Consumer Confidence jumped to 133.4, crushing the estimate of 126.6 points. On Wednesday, Japan releases consumer confidence, while the U.S publishes Preliminary GDP and Pending Home Sales.

Major US equity indices opened with modest gains on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq scaling fresh intraday records immediately after the opening bell. Meanwhile, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average has managed to hold above the 26,000 psychological mark and is now less than 2% away from record high level of 26,616 set on Jan. 26.

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) stalled its corrective move lower near $ 68.65 region, as the bulls fought back control and prompted a tepid bounce, in an effort to regain the 69 handle.

The dollar held near a one-month low against a basket of its rivals on Tuesday as a U.S.-Mexico trade deal aimed at overhauling the North American Free Trade Agreement boosted appetite for riskier assets.

While we have been expecting a ‘robust recovery’ in EUR since last Tuesday (see update on 21 Aug, spot at 1.1485), the pace and extent of the rally over the past 2 days exceeded our anticipation (note that EUR rose by +1.21% over Friday and Monday, the largest 2day gain in 3 months).

USD/CAD testing make-or-break support on heels of US Mexico Trade Deal- 1.2950 key. The Canadian Dollar has continued to trade within the confines of the initial August opening range with news that a working US-Mexico trade deal has been negotiated sending USD/CAD to the monthly lows today in New York trade.

China’s yuan finished Monday afternoon trade at a near 4-week high to the dollar after the central bank revived a “counter-cyclical factor” in its daily fixing to support the currency, halting a record 10-week slide that rattled global markets and irritated Washington.

The dollar’s safe-haven appeal dimmed on Monday after risk sentiment in the broader markets improved following a well-received speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

We have held the same view since last Tuesday (see update on 21 Aug, spot at 1.1485) wherein the robust recovery in EUR has chance to test the major 1.1630 resistance. After a few days of choppy price action,

The US dollar is lower against most major pairs on Friday. The greenback was waiting for U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech at the central bank summit in Jackson Hole but in the end no new information was provided. Chair Powell reiterated the data dependency of the central bank and shared his optimism regarding inflation. The market is already pricing in two US rate hikes in 2018 and the somewhat dovish remarks from Powell did not add support to the US dollar.

Following its 100-pip rally on Thursday, the USD/CAD retraced almost all of its gains on Friday as it approached the critical 1.30 mark. At the moment, the pair is trading at 1.3020, losing 0.45% on the day.The greenback, which was already under a modest selling pressure, extended its losses after Fed Chairman's prepared remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium was assessed as being dovish. On the inflation expectations, Powell said there were...

Crude-oil futures early Friday in New York popped higher, on pace to book weekly gains, as investors focused on tightening inventories, including signs of shrinking output from Iran, according to market participants.

The British pound slipped against the euro to within a whisker of its weakest since September 2017, hurt by a rally in the single currency and concerns about whether Britain can secure itself a trading deal with the European Union.

The dollar held onto recent gains in early trade on Friday after U.S. and Chinese officials ended two days of trade talks without any major breakthroughs.

EUR/USD: Neutral (since 21 Aug 18, 1.1485): Chance for EUR to test the major 1.1630 resistance. No change in view, see update from yesterday (23 Aug) below. The pull-back from 1.1623 was more rapid than expected but only a break of 1.1470 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased

After closing the previous day a few pips above the 1.30 mark, the USD/CAD pair erased the majority of this week's losses on Thursday as the loonie failed to preserve its strength amid falling crude oil prices. At the moment, the pair is trading at 1.3060, adding 0.5% on the day.Despite the disappointing macroeconomic data releases from the United States, the greenback was able to hold on to its recovery gains in the NA session and was last seen moving sideways near 95.50, where it was up 0.43% on the day. The PMI data released by Markit today showed that activity...

Sterling fell on Thursday as the government stepped up planning for a no-deal Brexit, reviving concern among investors about what would happen to the currency if Britain left the European Union without having agreed new trade arrangements.

The dollar rose on Thursday as investors bought the greenback on the back of political turmoil in Australia and after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting indicated the U.S. central bank is on course to further raise interest rates.

We shifted to a neutral stance on Tuesday (21 Aug, spot at 1.1485) and held the view the ‘robust’ recovery in EUR could lead to a test of the major 1.1630 resistance. We added, it could “take several days before this level would come into the picture”.

The Japanese yen is unchanged in the Wednesday session. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 110.42, up 0.11% on the day. In economic news, Japanese All Industries Activity declined by 0.8%, missing the estimate of -0.7%. The U.S releases Existing Home Sales, which are expected to edge higher to 5.40 million. Today’s key event is the Federal Reserve minutes from the August 1 policy meeting. Later, Japan releases National Core CPI and the Services Producer Price Index. On Thursday, the U.S releases unemployment claims.

The euro on Wednesday snapped a four-day rally that had lifted it to a two-week high as markets awaited news of U.S.-China trade talks and Federal Reserve minutes.

The dollar remained on the defensive on Wednesday, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on monetary policy continued to weigh on the greenback and as markets awaited U.S.-China trade talks and Federal Reserve minutes for directional cues.

The upbeat sentiment in the risk-associated space remains well and sound so far this week, pushing EUR/USD higher although meeting strong resistance in the 1.1600 neighbourhood.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index SXXP, +0.34% rose 0.5% to 385.20, after dipping between positive and negative territory earlier in the session. The index ended 0.6% higher on Monday, in a modest rebound from recent losses, including a 1.2% drop over the course of last week, which was its third straight weekly decline.U.S. stocks opened higher early Tuesday, putting the S&P 500 nearer to record levels.

The British pound rose to a near two-week high on Tuesday after the dollar fell following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that he was unhappy with the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates.

The dollar traded lower against a basket of major peers on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was “not thrilled” with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for raising interest rates.

We highlighted yesterday (20 Aug, spot at 1.1435) that “the bearish phase appears to be close to ending” and the break of 1.1460 indicates that the outlook for EUR has shifted to neutral.